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| Thursday, November 14, 2024 |
| Hello! Welcome in for another day of matchup notes! Today, we're focused on the RB position. |
| Week 11 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Jamey Eisenberg of FFT |
| Week 11 RB Matchup Notes: |
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| Josh Jacobs is set to anchor Fantasy playoff runs |
| Outside of a Week 17 matchup vs. Minnesota, the rest of season schedule sets up quite nicely for Josh Jacobs. The Packers face a lot of potential shootouts and several defenses that are easier to attack on the ground than through the air. |
| The first of such matchups comes vs. the Chicago Bears. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Bears have allowed a league-high yards before contact per rush and only Saquon Barkley and the Eagles are positioned more advantageously to control the game on the ground in Week 11. |
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| I highlighted the matchups that we are going to discuss in this space today. The only one that didn't crack the top-10 in the FP Data tool for Week 11 is Audric Estime and the Broncos vs. the Falcons. Denver's run-game advantage graded out 16th. We'll get to that matchup in a sec. |
| I wanna stick with this Packers-Bears matchup a bit longer. Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, and JaMychal Hasty combined for over 100 yards on the ground vs. this defense last week. The week prior, James Conner, Trey Benson, and Emari Demercado put up 200+ rushing yards vs. Chicago. This is a talented defense, but the ineptitude of the offense has repeatedly let Chicago's defense down and we may be nearing the breaking point of a frustrating season. |
| Also per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, the Bears have allowed a league-high yards before contact per rush on up-the-middle runs and have the fifth-lowest "stuffed" rate on such runs. Doesn't this feel like a spot where the Packers might just gash a worn out Bears defense over and over with power runs? |
| With the Packers listed as heavy favorites (5.5) points and a shootout well within the realistic range of outcomes, it would not surprise me at all to see a lower-than-usual dropback number for Green Bay to avoid Chicago's pass rush and simply take easy wins on the ground. I'm hoping that we'll see rookie MarShawn Lloyd get some run in this game! I'm locking Jacobs in everywhere I roster him and am a bit hesitant to trust the pass-game pieces. |
| The Colts likely lean on the run in Anthony Richardson's return |
| The Jets defense has the third-lowest opponent pass rate over expectation; offenses have chosen to attack on the ground vs. New York. No defense has been worse at tackling the RB position than the Jets. Anthony Richardson is not easy to tackle, and Jonathan Taylor may be even tougher. I bet that we see Shane Steichen avoid dropping back to pass vs. New York's pass rush and lean on the ground game whenever possible in Week 11. |
| Kareem Hunt poised for another 20+ touches for 50+ yards |
| The Bills have one of the highest stuffed rates against runs up the middle. It probably ain't gonna be pretty, but I bet Kareem Hunt gets it done for Fantasy purposes again in Week 11. How? Sheer brute force. Volume, and volume alone. |
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| Hunt has touch totals of 21, 28, 22, 24, and 28 in five starts. And in Week 11, we saw the Chiefs involve him more as a pass-catcher. |
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| While Buffalo is tough against the run, they invite offenses to beat them with RB passes. 22.5% of opponent targets vs. Buffalo have gone to the RB position. The next-highest rate is 19.5%, so Buffalo has been by far the league's most pronounced RB target tunnel. PPR scam your way to another big Hunt Fantasy performance, enjoy the ride while it lasts. |
| Nick Chubb breakout? |
| The Saints have the second-highest opponent adjusted yards before contact allowed. Chubb's previous matchups have come vs. the Ravens (third-lowest), Chargers (11th-lowest), and Bengals (13th-lowest). This matchup feels like a breath of fresh air and the timing is perfect coming out of Cleveland's bye. |
| Waiver wire fill-in Audric Estime may be what you need to get through the bye week! |
| Tyrone Tracy, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, Chuba Hubbard, James Conner -- it's a rough week at the RB position with bye weeks! Did you burn the rest of your FAAB on Audric Estime? It may just pay off! |
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| The Broncos used Estime as a physical man/gap runner in Week 10; all but four of his 14 rush attempts were man/gap designed, per Fantasy Points Data. I think that the Broncos may be able to play more bully ball in Week 11. |
| Atlanta has allowed the sixth-highest rushing success rate on man/gap runs in 2024, and only six teams have a worse tackle conversion rate on RB runs. |
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| Week 11 Rankings Update |
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Quarterback
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Jalen Hurts
QB2 - Lamar Jackson
QB3 - Josh Allen
QB4 - Jayden Daniels |
| Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB8 - Drake Maye
QB9 - Bo Nix
QB15 - Anthony Richardson |
| Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB5 - Brock Purdy
QB6 - Joe Burrow
QB7 - Justin Herbert
QB10 - Russell Wilson
QB11 - Jordan Love
QB12 - Jared Goff
QB13 - C.J. Stroud
QB14 - Patrick Mahomes
QB16 - Jameis Winston
QB17 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB18 - Aaron Rodgers
QB19 - Matthew Stafford
QB20 - Sam Darnold
QB21 - Geno Smith
QB22 - Kirk Cousins
QB23 - Derek Carr |
| Tier 4 -- He's Janiel Dones |
| No Janiel Dones this week! We've earned our reprieve! |
| Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB24 - Caleb Williams
QB25 - Gardner Minshew
QB26 - Mac Jones
QB27 - Will Levis
QB28 - Cooper Rush |
| Running Backs |
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| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Saquon Barkley
RB2 - Christian McCaffrey
RB3 - Derrick Henry
RB4 - De'Von Achane
RB5 - Joe Mixon
RB6 - Kyren Williams
RB7 - Bijan Robinson
RB8 - Alvin Kamara
RB9 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB10 - Breece Hall
RB11 - Jonathan Taylor
RB12 - Josh Jacobs
RB13 - Chase Brown
RB14 - Kenneth Walker
RB15 - James Cook
RB16 - Kareem Hunt
RB18 - David Montgomery
RB19 - Aaron Jones
RB20 - Nick Chubb
RB21 - J.K. Dobbins
RB22 - Rhamondre Stevenson |
| Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB17 - D'Andre Swift
RB23 - Najee Harris
RB25 - Tony Pollard
RB27 - Rico Dowdle
RB30 - Jaylen Warren |
| Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB24 - Brian Robinson
RB29 - Travis Etienne
RB31 - Javonte Williams |
| Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously (we're chasing upside!) |
RB26 - Audric Estime
RB34 - Gus Edwards
RB44 - Jaylen Wright
RB45 - Ray Davis |
| Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB28 - Austin Ekeler
RB32 - Cam Akers
RB33 - Tank Bigsby
RB35 - Alexander Mattison
RB36 - Tyler Allgeier
RB37 - Jerome Ford
RB38 - Tyjae Spears
RB39 - Raheem Mostert
RB40 - Justice Hill
RB41 - Roschon Johnson
RB42 - Braelon Allen
RB43 - Zach Charbonnet
RB46 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB47 - Samaje Perine
RB48 - Kenneth Gainwell
RB49 - Zamir White
RB50 - JaMycal Hasty |
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| Wide Receivers |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - A.J. Brown
WR2 - Nico Collins
WR3 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR4 - Justin Jefferson
WR5 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR6 - Puka Nacua
WR9 - Cooper Kupp
WR13 - Jauan Jennings |
| Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score |
WR7 - George Pickens
WR8 - Deebo Samuel
WR10 - Davante Adams
WR11 - Tyreek Hill
WR12 - Garrett Wilson
WR14 - Courtland Sutton
WR15 - Terry McLaurin
WR16 - DK Metcalf
WR17 - Drake London
WR18 - Ladd McConkey
WR19 - Zay Flowers
WR20 - Jayden Reed |
| Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR21 - Josh Downs
WR22 - CeeDee Lamb
WR24 - Darnell Mooney
WR26 - DeAndre Hopkins (matchup, also he has yet to be fully integrated into the offense)
WR28 - Calvin Ridley |
| Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR29 - Khalil Shakir
WR31 - Jakobi Meyers
WR34 - Romeo Doubs
WR43 - DeMario Douglas |
| Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR23 - Cedric Tillman
WR25 - Tee Higgins
WR27 - DeVonta Smith
WR30 - Tank Dell
WR32 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR33 - Jameson Williams
WR35 - Jerry Jeudy
WR40 - Jordan Addison
WR44 - Rashod Bateman
WR45 - Xavier Worthy
WR46 - Christian Watson
WR47 - Kayshon Boutte
WR48 - Quentin Johnston
WR49 - Alec Pierce
WR54 - Ricky Pearsall |
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| Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR36 - Jaylen Waddle
WR37 - DJ Moore
WR38 - Amari Cooper
WR39 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR41- Rome Odunze
WR42 - Keenan Allen
WR50 - Michael Pittman
WR51 - Dontayvion Wicks
WR52 - Noah Brown
WR53 - Tyler Lockett
WR55 - Elijah Moore
WR56 - Joshua Palmer
WR57 - Mack Hollins
WR58 - Mike Evans
WR59 - Demarcus Robinson
WR60 - Marquez Valdes-Scantling |
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| Tight Ends |
| Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Travis Kelce
TE2 - George Kittle
TE3 - David Njoku
TE4 - Mark Andrews
TE5 - Brock Bowers
TE7 - Taysom Hill |
| Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE6 - Evan Engram
TE8 - Tucker Kraft
TE9 - T.J. Hockenson
TE10 - Kyle Pitts |
| Tier 3 -- Streamers |
TE11 - Jonnu Smith
TE12 - Mike Gesicki
TE13 - Sam LaPorta
TE14 - Will Dissly
TE15 - Hunter Henry
TE16 - Pat Freiermuth
TE17 - Dallas Goedert
TE18 - Dawson Knox
TE19 - Davis Allen
TE20 - Zach Ertz
TE21 - Jake Ferguson
TE22 - Cole Kmet
TE23 - Noah Fant
TE24 - Dalton Schultz
TE25 - Noah Gray |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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