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| Tuesday, July 16, 2024 |
| It's Ravens Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (11th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 25.4 (20th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 22.5 (5th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Promoted linebackers coach Zach Orr to defensive coordinator after former DC Mike Macdonald was hired as the Seattle Seahawks head coach |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson each walked in free agencyRight tackle Morgan Moses was traded awayDrafted right tackle Roger Rosengarten in Round 2Drafted a center in Round 7 |
| The Ravens have strong depth on the line even after losing three starters. It'll be interesting to see who ends up starting for Baltimore. The most upside probably lies with rookie tackle Rosengarten and Year 2 guard Andrew Vorhees, but neither has any NFL experience. As it stands, this is probably a bottom-10 offensive line in the NFL, but there's upside for more. |
| There's massive rushing TD upside if the OL plays well |
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| Todd Monken really surprised me in 2023, only passing the ball 40% of the time in the red zone. His career average prior to 2023 was 58%. Only the Philadelphia Eagles had a higher red zone run rate. |
| Baltimore scored just 49% of the team touchdown total as passing TDs in 2023, a bottom-five rate. The league average was 58%. I have Baltimore projected for a 53% rate in 2024, which results in a projection of 25.4 passing touchdowns and 22.5 rushing touchdowns. How much of that should we expect to go to Lamar Jackson? And how much will be left over for Derrick Henry? |
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| In 2023, Jackson accounted for 29% of Baltimore's red zone rushing attempts in healthy games. For reference, his red zone rush rates are displayed in comparison to other NFL quarterbacks below. |
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| As far as hogging goal line touchdown opportunities at the QB position, Jackson hasn't been nearly as bad as some. Losing goal line opportunities to Jalen Hurts as a teammate seems to be a much bigger hurdle for a RB to overcome, for instance. And of course, we have to look no further than to the 13 touchdowns for Gus Bus in Baltimore last year to get an idea of the type of red zone role that might be available to Henry in this offense. |
| Despite being the most active scrambler over the past four seasons, Jackson somehow only has scrambled for one total touchdown during that time. |
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| This can be explained by looking specifically at his splits in the red zone. Jackson has not scrambled at a high rate when in the red zone. |
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| This leaves the door open for the offense to either produce a high number of passing touchdowns or a high number of RB rushing touchdowns, as we saw with Edwards in 2023. If Monken's red zone play-calling last year is any indication, the best bet is on Henry scoring many touchdowns. The only RB who I have projected to find the end zone more than King Henry in 2024 is Christian McCaffrey. CMC, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Kyren Williams are the only running backs who project for more Fantasy points than Henry. I'm also fine taking Jahmyr Gibbs over Henry in any sort of PPR format. Beyond those names, I'm not considering any running backs ahead of Henry. I almost always draft a WR in Rounds 2 and 3, but Henry (and Williams) are the two running back exceptions. |
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| Will Zay Flowers see a Year 2 role expansion? |
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| Flowers was scheming up targets at the second-highest rate in the NFL as a rookie, according to the FantasyPoints Data Suite. The three highest designed target rates belonged to rookies Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Rashee Rice. Displayed below you'll find how the three compare if screen targets are removed from the data set. |
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| Flowers was not targeted at a high rate when running downfield routes as a rookie. That may change in Year 2! As a rookie, his target totals were propped up by designed targets in the short area of the field. |
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| If the above subset of routes with an average depth of five-plus yards is split to only include routes vs. man coverage, Flowers' yard per route run rate falls to 0.97. Among 57 receivers with 50+ of such routes run vs. man coverage, that was the ninth-lowest rate. His splits vs. press coverage tell a similar story. I checked out his Reception Perception profile, and the data that I have on Flowers tells a similar story to what Matt Harmon saw from the explosive rookie. |
| "One area you can pick some nits in Flowers' game is his work against press. His 62.9% success rate vs. press falls at the 35th percentile. His size may always limit him in this area but it was a strong mark in his prospect profile so with more time on task working through details, I won't rule out that we see some improvement. Overall, Flowers is a great route runner so it's hard to bet against him but right now, this is the one sector of the game I could see putting a ceiling on his path to be considered a true No. 1 receiver." |
| Harmon liked what he saw on tape from Flowers against press coverage at the collegiate level and believes that this is an area of his game that can be improved. Matt also lauded praise on Flowers as a zone coverage beater, drawing attention to the most important part of his game. |
| "I love the way Flowers works against zone, especially in the intermediate and deep areas. The Ravens see a ton of zone because of Lamar Jackson and it's easy to see why these two developed such an instant rapport." |
| Read the full Zay Flowers Reception Perception Profile! |
| For now, finding holes in zones is enough for Flowers to be a productive Fantasy receiver. Consistently finding holes in zone coverages will get Flowers targets. And the designed touches likely are not going to be turned down in any significant way in Year 2. I fixated a bit on the areas of improvement that Flowers could make in an attempt to form a better idea of how realistic a Year 2 jump feels. I did not find much that suggested a significant statistical improvement might be coming with more opportunities. If anything, I worry that Flowers may become a very inconsistent Fantasy producer if asked to win down the field and against press coverage more often. |
| And that may be a path that we see Flowers take. 2023 was Todd Monken's first season as Baltimore's offensive coordinator, and he used Mark Andrews more like Travis Kelce than as a seam-stretcher. Andrews was used down the field far more with Greg Roman designing Baltimore's offense. When Andrews was on the field, Flowers saw his first-read and designed target rates drop and was used more to attack the deep and intermediate areas of the field and create space for the offense. |
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| Ultimately, if you want to bet on Flowers in his second pro season, I am not going to stop you. He's an electric player attached to an electric quarterback. The results could be electric. I can't justify drafting him ahead of Mark Andrews. His teammate tight end projects for more targets and Fantasy points and plays a premium position. I have some exposure to Flowers, but he is one of my least-drafted players. |
| Mark Andrews remains one of the best bets for Fantasy |
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| I found the drastic shift in how often Andrews was used as a downfield route runner to be a bit strange, so I dug deeper into his data. All indications are that Andrews remained highly effective as a downfield threat. His yards per target on targets coming 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage was up from 2022 to 2023. So was his yards per route run on routes where his initial cut came five or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Andrews simply was not asked to run those types of routes as often and the offense was not as focused on deep passing. Jackson hasn't seen the type of average depth of target depression that Patrick Mahomes has, but his 8.4-yard aDOT in 2023 tied his 2022 rate as a career-low. |
| If anything, last year's usage suggests to me that Andrews could result in more targets going forward. For his career, Andrews has a 30% target per route run rate on routes where his initial cut came five or fewer yards from the line of scrimmage, compared to a 25% rate on routes developing deeper from the line. Typically, the gap is actually wider. Andrews has the highest target per route run rate of any tight end on routes developing five or more yards down the field. He has been an arguably still is the best vertical threat at the position. Still, though, shorter routes lead to more targets. Even for Andrews. |
| There's not quite as much upside for explosive yardage totals if Andrews is used more around the line of scrimmage, especially if Baltimore leans more into the ground game with Henry on the roster. But there's still a path to upside for Andrews. |
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| If Baltimore produces more receiving touchdowns than my projections account for, Andrews could absolutely finish as Fantasy's TE1. |
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| Andrews tied Tyreek Hill for the NFL's highest red zone target share if only comparing plays that individual pass-catchers were on the field for. Andrews really only played nine healthy games in 2023, and he ranked second among tight ends with six receiving touchdowns. His 44% red zone target share when healthy was a new career-high but this is nothing new for Andrews. He has posted a rate above 40% in three of the past five seasons. George Kittle's highest career rate is 29%. Travis Kelce's single-season high is 31%. Sam LaPorta's rate was 26.5%. McBride's was 28.9%. Andrews might be the best bet to lead all tight ends in touchdowns, and his target rate might be higher than we've seen since his massive 2021 Fantasy output. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Wednesday, we will be covering the Cleveland Browns. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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| | | | | International Friendlies | | Canadian Football League | Watch Hearts vs. Tottenham this Wednesday at 2 PM ET on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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