Rates Right in Line With Long-Term Lows, But That Could Change on Friday

"Long-term" is a subjective measurement, but in this case, it refers to the the past 7 or 8 months. Today's mortgage rates dropped to levels that--until 2 other recent days in late December--haven't been seen since May, 2023. In other words, we're effectively at 8 month lows today, even if those lows aren't very different from the lows in late December. This week's precipitous drop came courtesy of factors other than the slate of economic data. That's interesting because we'd been eagerly anticipating this week's econ data as a potential source of volatility. Instead, it was a friendly update from the U.S. Treasury on its borrowing plans (something that can have a big, indirect impact on mortgage rates by altering the supply/demand equation in the Treasury market which then spills over into the mortgage market). All of the above means that Friday morning's jobs report is our first significant opportunity to see a big move in rates that's driven by economic data. As is always the case ahead of this report, the reaction could easily take rates quite a bit higher or lower. It can also thread the needle and keep things fairly flat. The market is expecting the job count to drop to 180k from last month's 216k. A lower number would likely keep low rates intact, and a much lower number would allow for new longer-term lows. Conversely, a number over 200k would be more likely to put upward pressure on rates. It's not uncommon for the actual number to come in roughly 100k away from the forecast level. The farther from forecast, the likely we are to see the big reaction.

February 1, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Rates Right in Line With Long-Term Lows, But That Could Change on Friday "Long-term" is a subjective measurement, but in this case, it refers to the the past 7 or 8 months. Today's mortgage rates dropped to levels that--until 2 other recent days in late December--haven't been seen since May, 2023. In other words, we... (read more) MBS Commentary Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to breaking into new 6-month lows. By the 3pm CME close, we had to settle for the lowest yields si... (read more) Rob Chrisman HMDA Data Testing, TPO HELOC; MSR Risk Mgt. Products; CFPB to pay $6 Million Ahead of Groundhog Day tomorrow, one realizes that our industry certainly has its share of unexpected ups and downs. The latest example of a “down” is Mike Gill, a SVP of Capital Markets at the Housing Policy Council, who is fighting for his life aft... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.63% -0.12% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.63% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.95% -0.23 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.12% -0.08 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.11% -0.11 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.04% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/1 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.95% -0.23% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.63% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.94% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/1 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.78% +0.03 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% +0.07 0.59 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.94% +0.08 0.46 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/24 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.41 -0.05 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.41 -0.05 UMBS 6.0 101.42 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 100.72 -0.11 GNMA 6.0 101.48 -0.06 Pricing as of: 2/1 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.8800 -0.0360 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.207 -0.004 5 YR Treasury 3.813 -0.026 7 YR Treasury 3.846 -0.036 10 YR Treasury 3.880 -0.036 30 YR Treasury 4.118 -0.055 Pricing as of: 2/1 5:31PM EST Latest Video Consumers are running out of excess savings, says BNY Mellon's Sonia Meskin Fmr. Kansas City Fed Pres. Esther George: Yesterday was a reminder the Fed ... Fed will only cut rates three times this year, says Apollo Global's Slok ISM Manufacturing reaches 49.1 for 15th consecutive print under 50 Around the Web forexlive Banking worries are back and bonds are bid Federal Reserve Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Reuters Traders play defense in regional bank ETF's options as shares sink Reuters IMF's Georgieva backs Fed's stance, sees risks in waiting too long to ease rates Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.0% below recent peak CNBC Fed holds rates steady, indicates it is not ready to start cutting Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 224,000 CNBC Fed Chief Jerome Powell says a March rate cut is not likely Reuters Regional banks hit after New York Community Bancorp cuts dividend after loss CNBC 10-year Treasury yield dips as investors digest Fed rate decision, policy guidance CNBC Bank of England leaves policy unchanged, says interest rates are 'under review' CNBC Fed meeting live updates: Traders await central banks statement on the path for rate cuts Eye on Housing Private Residential Construction Spending Grows for Third Straight Month

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