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Sunday, September 8, 2024
Welcome to Sunday! We made it.
I barely made it. (Just kidding, I am good! It's just hilarious to me that I am already cooked online before our first Sunday.) Only two days into the season, I was rightfully roasted on Twitter following Saquon Barkley's big debut with the Eagles. No surprise. If you listened to the Beyond the Boxscore with the Fantasy Life crew, I acknowledged that I could feel it coming with Barkley playing in an island game.
I still think that it made sense to fade Barkley as a Round 1 Fantasy pick. He only had two targets! Touchdowns are pretty random, we'll see what happens over the course of 17 games. I don't want to dwell on Barkley, I want to get into Sunday's action. Before we do, I do want to take this opportunity to highlight one of the bits of feedback that I got regarding the Barkley Twitter debacle as it pertains to Fantasy and ultimately the Week 1 Sunday DFS slate that we're about to take in. (If you're only here for season-long rankings update, you can truly skip this entire section and find the rankings update at the bottom of the post. Today's intro will be DFS-specific.)
A nameless faceless Twitter account said to me, "The fact you guys never worry about looking completely clueless is fascinating to me... this makes you look like you have zero credibility."
We are all clueless. That person is, you are, I am. We were born without asking to be. Why? No clue. We have no idea what tomorrow holds. I don't want to live in fear of that. I want to embrace it. We are alive! We have no clue what might happen, maybe it will be something amazing!
We certainly do not have any idea what we can expect from the National Football League, an organization involving thousands of moving parts. As Fantasy football players, we're guessing. We are! We are taking shots in the dark, clueless as to what is in front of us. We are betting on other humans who are all faced with their own set of circumstances. We are clueless about their health. The most recent opportunities that I had to watch Saquon Barkley, he looked worn down as a member of the New York Giants. I had no clue whether that would still be the case in 2024. I hope that my stance to fade his ADP cost did not make it seem like I felt definitively about his talent. I just didn't feel any more confident that he would bounce back at the age of 27 than I did that he wouldn't. We had statistical evidence to back up what could be seen on the field -- over the past few seasons, Barkley didn't look like he had the juice that he did early in his career.
On Friday night, Barkley looked happy, healthy, and energized. That's awesome! How could we have known, though? He didn;t' play in the preseason. We often have no idea at all what is happening with these players from a health perspective. Clyde Edwards-Helaire might not even play football this year because of the mental and emotional toll that it has taken on him. In 2021, I was excited to bet on Calvin Ridley entering the year. I didn't have any idea that he was dealing with deep depression. I am clueless! These are real people, each living complicated and dynamic lives. There's so much that we all have no clue about. Does not knowing everything give us zero credibility about knowing anything ? Should worry about being shamed for not knowing everything preclude us from placing bets or being vocal about what we believe we might know? I don't know that person's perspective, but the framing of the feedback felt so fear-based and counterproductive for progression. Shame! Shame! Shame! Okay, yes, I am a fool. That's fine with me. It sort of has to be, right? What's the alternative? I am going to keep trying.
I am learning all that I can about what goes into the end product on the football field. All things equal, I believe that I am probably among the best people at making guesses as to what might happen on an NFL field. All things are often not equal, though!
Welcome to Sunday! Welcome back to chaos.
So what can we do? I'll quote Bill and Ted quoting Socrates for the second time in only a matter of months of writing this newsletter: "True wisdom comes in knowing that we know nothing. That's us, dude!" What can we do with this knowledge?
We keep playing, right? I say we look to Captain Kirk Cousins for guidance. "When things are down, we can't hit the panic button, and when things are up, we can't relax. We've just got to stay consistent."
Stay consistent. Everything outside of our choices are beyond our control. When it comes to predicting the future, we are clueless. I still want to play. And, if we persist without pushing the panic button or letting shame overtake us, I do believe that we can position ourselves to occasionally benefit from the chaos -- sometimes, even in a massive way. And that's why I still play DFS, even though it's a game that involves a lot of losing.
These days, I exclusively play DFS tournaments -- contests with five-to-twenty thousand entries and a top-heavy payout structure -- typically, only the top 15-20% finishers are paid out, and really, I'm shooting for the very top to try to take home a big payout. A time existed when I was grinding out a small edge by entering thousands of dollars in "cash games," where my goal was simply to finish 51st percentile or better. My focus has become spread among so many Fantasy football-related ventures as my work responsibilities have increased, and I simply don't have the time/energy to dedicate to that type of DFS play anymore. I do still enjoy building 10-20 tournament lineups each week, though.
Playing exclusively in DFS tournaments invites a lot of losing. Inherently, when attempting to repeatedly finish 80th percentile or better, you're inviting "failure." That's fine, I know that it is going to come and go, just as the wins will. We've just got to stay consistent. My experience has been that the wins have outweighed the losses.
In Week 1, there's even more chaos than usual. I say let's embrace it. I am doing my best to build lineups that aren't centered around players who the masses are on this week. I am intentionally fading Rachaad White. I am intentionally fading Andrei Iosivas. Why? Not because they're "bad" plays, but because I know that I will benefit in a big way if those two don't have a big game and are massively rostered. I am playing a lot of De'Von Achane, even though he is going to be a popular play. Same for Malik Nabers. In the case of those two and Jayden Daniels, I am looking to embrace the chaos by being overweight in the number of rosters that I build that include those "unknown" players. I'm betting on people being afraid of the uncertainty around those players. And in lineups where I don't use Achane, I'm intentionally looking to benefit from a scenario in which he does not benefit from the good side of chaos. If the touchdowns in Miami don't go to Achane, there's a decent chance that they go to Raheem Mostert, right? He's not expected to be nearly as popular.
I'm rostering a decent bit of Mostert. I think that Achane is a "better" play, but I want to embrace the chaos. A three-touchdown game for Mostert is a real possibility. I'm also rostering a lot of Aaron Jones, even though he feels too expensive. He is in the same price range as Achane and White. Those are projected to be the two most-rostered running backs on the slate. If he outscores those two, I'll be at a big advantage relative to the thousands of lineups that I'm trying to outscore.
We have no clue what might happen this week, but neither does anyone else! If you're playing Week 1 NFL DFS, consider how you might leverage other people's overconfidence in what they think they know.
The DFS Helper should help point you in the right direction, but feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any further questions! I try to respond to tweets throughout the week; I also have a weekly Twitter Q&A each Sunday morning to answer any lineup setting questions you have. Good luck this weekend everybody!
DraftKings Main Slate Tiers
Quarterback
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations
Jayden Daniels ($5,700), Josh Allen ($8,000)
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Jayden Daniels ($5,700)
C.J. Stroud ($7,500)
Daniel Jones ($5,400 - only in a stack with Malik Nabers)
Kyler Murray ($6,400)
Justin Fields ($5,000)
Josh Allen ($8,000)
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000 - only in a stack)
Trevor Lawrence ($6,200 - only in a stack)
Running Back
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
None
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
De'Von Achane ($6,800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300), Rachaad White ($6,300), Travis Etienne ($7,200), Bijan Robinson ($7,700)
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
De'Von Achane ($6,800)
Raheem Mostert ($6,400)
Kenneth Walker ($6,100)
James Conner ($6,200)
Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300)
Javonte Williams ($5,500)
J.K. Dobbins ($4,900)
Jonathan Taylor ($7,800)
Wide Receiver
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
Nico Collins ($7,000), Malik Nabers ($5,900)
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
Diontae Johnson ($5,300), Jayden Waddle ($6,300), Tyreek Hill ($8,700), Chris Olave ($6,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900), Mike Evans ($7,300), Jalen McMillan ($3,300)
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Nico Collins ($7,000)
Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,700)
Jayden Waddle ($6,300)
Malik Nabers ($5,900)
Jalen McMillan ($3,300)
Adonai Mitchell ($3,800)
Mike Evans ($7,300)
Tank Dell ($5,500)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900)
Rashid Shaheed ($4,400)
Tyreek Hill ($8,700)
Curtis Samuel ($4,900)
Keon Coleman ($5,000)
Tight End
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration
Trey McBride ($6,100), Zach Ertz ($3,600), Kylen Granson ($2,900)
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Trey McBride ($6,100) , Dalton Kincaid ($5,800)
FanDuel Main Slate Tiers
Quarterback
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations
Jayden Daniels ($7,000), Josh Allen ($9,200)
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Jayden Daniels ($7,000)
C.J. Stroud ($8,500)
Matthew Stafford ($7,300)
Jared Goff ($7,500)
Daniel Jones ($6,800)
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700)
Josh Allen ($9,200)
Kyler Murray ($7,900)
Trevor Lawrence ($7,400)
Running Back
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
De'Von Achane ($7,200)
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
James Conner ($6,100), Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000), Travis Etienne ($7,500), Raheem Mostert ($6,600)
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
De'Von Achane ($7,200)
Raheem Mostert ($6,600)
Bijan Robinson ($8,800)
Jonathan Taylor ($8,600)
Kyren Williams ($7,800)
James Conner ($6,100)
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000)
Chase Brown ($5,400)
Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000)
J.K. Dobbins ($5,500)
Wide Receiver
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks
Nico Collins ($7,100)
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration
Diontae Johnson ($5,600), Malik Nabers ($6,300), Jaylen Waddle ($7,200), Tyreek Hill ($9,600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,900), Chris Olave ($7,000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,200)
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Nico Collins ($7,100)
Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,100)
Courtland Sutton ($5,500)
Jaylen Waddle ($7,200)
Tyreek Hill ($9,600)
Diontae Johnson ($5,600)
Chris Olave ($7,000)
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,600)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,900)
Mike Evans ($7,900)
Puka Nacua ($8,400)
Malik Nabers ($6,300)
Tank Dell ($6,400)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,200)
Luke McCaffrey ($4,200)
Rashid Shaheed ($5,200)
Curtis Samuel ($5,200)
Jalen McMillan ($5,000)
Keon Coleman ($6,000)
Tight End
Tight End
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration
Trey McBride ($6,400), Colby Parkinson ($4,700)
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options
Colby Parkinson ($4,700)
Trey McBride ($6,400)
Sam LaPorta ($8,000)
Dalton Kincaid ($6,800)
Optimal FanDuel Lineup
*Be sure to check back for updates.*
QB -- Jayden Daniels
RB -- De'Von Achane
RB -- Raheem Mostert
WR -- Nico Collins
WR -- Malik Nabers
WR -- Diontae Johnson
TE -- Trey McBride
FLEX -- Amon-Ra St. Brown
D/ST -- Bengals
Tournament FanDuel Lineups
Designed for large-field tournaments
QB -- C.J. Stroud
RB -- Jonathan Taylor
RB -- De'Von Achane
WR -- Brian Thomas Jr.
WR -- Nico Collins
WR -- Tank Dell
TE -- Colby Parkinson
FLEX -- Jahmyr Gibbs
D/ST -- Seahawks
Texans stack without Jonathan Taylor
QB -- C.J. Stroud
RB -- Bijan Robinson
RB -- James Conner
WR -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR -- Nico Collins
WR -- Courtland Sutton
TE -- Sam LaPorta
FLEX -- Aaron Jones
D/ST -- Bears
WAS-TB game stack
QB -- Jayden Daniels
RB -- Bijan Robinson
RB -- Jahmyr Gibbs
WR -- Terry McLaurin
WR -- Nico Collins
WR -- Mike Evans
TE -- Trey McBride
FLEX -- Luke McCaffrey
D/ST -- Browns
Week 1 Rankings Update
Risers
(QB19) Justin Fields -- Fields and Daniel Jones feel way too high in my rankings, but my projections have them finishing even higher. On paper, these two simply are top-15 Fantasy quarterbacks when healthy and running. Of course, they're both capable of imploding and finishing much lower than that on any given week, just as they're capable of finishing much higher by breaking a big play or scoring multiple touchdowns. In my projections, Fields scores more than pocket passers in difficult matchups (Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy), as well as Caleb Williams in his first NFL start against a much-improved Titans defense. I don't have him ranked ahead of those players, but that's the type of math problem that Fields presents for Fantasy football purposes. Do you want to take the plunge and bet on the probability of him rushing enough to be worth starting? Or do you want to just avoid the Arthur Smith albatross in Pittsburgh?
(RB10) Kenneth Walker -- I moved him ahead of Joe Mixon and Raheem Mostert. The Texans (25.5 points) and Dolphins (26.5 points) are both implied for more points than the Seahawks (23.5), but Seattle is the team favored by the most points (5.5) of the trio, and I like the matchup for Walker the most.
(WR26) Terry McLaurin -- I want to move him higher, but I can't justify putting him ahead of Diontae Johnson, Michael Pittman (his splits without Josh Downs on the field are crazy), DK Metcalf, or Stefon Diggs. McLaurin basically projects like a top-20 Fantasy WR for me this week. If you have conviction on him being a better play than any of the players who I just mentioned, feel free to start him ahead of them. You could start him over Drake London or DJ Moore, if you really feel like that is right. His individual matchup is easier.
(WR47) Andrei Iosivas -- Of course, Yoshi needs to move into starting consideration as the potential WR1 for the Bengals in Week 1. It's a brutal matchup, though. I'd rather just avoid the Bengals this week. If Ja'Marr Chase also sits, I'd move Iosivas up even further. He'd move ahead of Rashid Shaheed, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel, just behind Keenan Allen and George Pickens.
Fallers
(RB39) Zamir White -- The Vegas totals in the Chargers-Raiders game just keep getting pushed down. The over/under is now the lowest of Week 1, and the Raiders are implied for only 18.25 points. Only the Patriots (16.5) and Broncos (18) have a lower implied point total than Las Vegas. Why am I moving White (RB39) down more aggressively than Rhamondre Stevenson (RB29) and Javonte Williams (RB23)? Passing game involvement, simply. I do not know if White will contribute at all as a receiver. If at all possible, I would prefer to take a wait-and-see approach on rosters with White.
(WR33) Brandon Aiyuk -- The New York Jets present the worst-possible matchup for a perimeter field-stretching wide receiver. Aiyuk is good enough to transcend any given matchup, but I wouldn't bet on him over Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, or Tank Dell. If DeAndre Hopkins sits out, I'll move Calvin Ridley ahead of him. I even have Christian Kirk, Joshua Palmer, and Courtland Sutton ranked ahead of Aiyuk. If you want more upside, Aiyuk is fine to start ahead of Kirk and Palmer, but I do feel better about their respective floor projections. Sutton could be a swing and a miss this week, as he draws a difficult individual coverage assignment and his Broncos are not expected to score much (5.5 points less than the 49ers, for what it's worth).
Really, I just do not feel confident in San Fran this week and the individual matchup for Aiyuk is so rough. I want no part of it if I have other options.
(WR40) George Pickens -- Arthur Smith and Justin Fields? That's a lot to overcome.
(WR61) Ladd McConkey -- If taking a shot in the dark on a rookie WR, give me Jalen McMillan or Adonai Mitchell over McConkey. This may be the single slowest-paced game in Week 1, and McConkey seems likely to have a slow start after getting limited action this preseason. Give me Demarcus Robinson over him in a projected shootout, easily. I wouldn't blame anyone for choosing Marvin Mims over him, there's upside for a big play there. You could justify starting Michael Wilson over him in a potential shootout. Darius Slayton could get loose for a deep shot or two against Minnesota's blitz-heavy defense, you could start him over McConkey. Luke McCaffrey is likely going to be playing the same type of role as McConkey in a much faster-paced offense and a better matchup. A time to bet on McConkey may come this season, but this Week 1 game feels like an extremely dicey bet to place.
Quarterbacks
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Jalen Hurts
QB3 - Patrick Mahomes
QB4 - Lamar Jackson
QB5 - C.J. Stroud
I love the matchup for Stroud against Indianapolis, but I am a bit worried about Anthony Richardson and the Colts offense. Houston's edge combination of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter may be the most overwhelming pass rush duo in 2024. Indy's line is strong, but this will be a tough Week 1 test.
Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk
QB6 - Anthony Richardson
QB7 - Jayden Daniels
QB8 - Kyler Murray
Murray doesn't feel as risky as the other two, but Arizona's implied team total (20.5 points) for Week 1 is sandwiched right in between Indy (23) and Washington (19.5). I feel pretty optimistic about Arizona's offense in this spot, but the Vegas total caught my eye.
Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers
QB9 - Jared Goff
QB10 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB11 - Matthew Stafford
QB12 - Jordan Love
QB13 - Joe Burrow
QB14 - Trevor Lawrence
QB15 - Caleb Williams
QB16 - Geno Smith
QB17 - Brock Purdy
QB18 - Dak Prescott
QB20 - Baker Mayfield
QB22 - Kirk Cousins
QB23 - Justin Herbert
Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players
QB19 - Justin Fields
QB21 - Daniel Jones
QB24 - Deshaun Watson
QB25 - Aaron Rodgers
QB26 - Sam Darnold
QB27 - Will Levis
QB28 - Derek Carr
QB29 - Bryce Young
QB30 - Bo Nix
QB31 - Gardner Minshew
QB32 - Jacoby Brissett
Running Backs
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
RB1 - Christian McCaffrey
RB2 - Breece Hall
RB3 - Bijan Robinson
RB4 - Jonathan Taylor
RB5 - Jahmyr Gibbs
RB6 - De'Von Achane
RB7 - Saquon Barkley
RB8 - Kyren Williams
RB9 - Travis Etienne
RB10 - Kenneth Walker
RB11 - Raheem Mostert
Maybe Mostert does not belong in this tier. He did the last time that we saw him healthy. I like this matchup for Miami's ground game, and the Dolphins (26.5-point implied point total) are just two points short of the highest Week 1 total (Detroit - 28.5).
Tier 2 -- Looking like Week 1 workhorses
RB12 - Joe Mixon
RB13 - Derrick Henry
RB14 - James Conner
RB15 - Josh Jacobs
Walker is the player who I am the least convinced belongs in this workhorse tier, but his matchup offsets it. We could see him rip off multiple explosive runs in Week 1.
Tier 3 -- These guys are great, their offense may score a buncha points, I do not have any idea what the backfield split will look like.
RB16 - James Cook
RB17 - Rachaad White
RB18 - Isiah Pacheco
RB21 - David Montgomery
I have the least confidence in Cook's role, but the Bills have a much better projected Week 1 offensive environment than Kansas City or Tampa. I want to move Montgomery higher. Most teams have had their implied totals pushed down as the week progressed, the Lions have actually continued to be bet up to 28.5 points. I just don't feel comfortable starting Monty over guys who could be bellcows (White, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones) in good matchups.
Tier 4 -- Role and matchup both check out, but can we trust the offensive environment?
RB19 - Alvin Kamara
RB20 - Aaron Jones
RB22 - Najee Harris
RB23 - Javonte Williams
RB25 - Devin Singletary
RB29 - Rhamondre Stevenson
Tier 5 -- I have several concerns
RB24 - D'Andre Swift (offensive environment/role - I think Khalil Herbert is going to play on early downs)
RB26 - Tony Pollard (matchup/offensive environment/role)
RB27 - Chase Brown (matchup/role)
RB28 - Jerome Ford (matchup/offensive environment)
RB30 - Brian Robinson Jr. (offensive environment/role)
RB34 - Chuba Hubbard (offensive environment/role - surely we're done with Miles Sanders, right?)
RB36 - Tyjae Spears (matchup/offensive environment/role)
RB39 - Zamir White (offensive environment/role)
Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously
RB31 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB32 - J.K. Dobbins
RB33 - Gus Edwards
RB35 - Zack Moss (feels like purely a bet on touchdowns)
RB40 - Ray Davis
Tier 7 -- Desperation plays
RB37 - Austin Ekeler
RB38 - Ezekiel Elliott
RB41 - Jaylen Warren
RB42 - Blake Corum
RB43 - Zach Charbonnet
RB44 - Khalil Herbert
RB45 - Bucky Irving
RB46 - Rico Dowdle
RB47 - Tyler Allgeier
RB48 - Antonio Gibson
RB49 - Ty Chandler
RB50 - Justice Hill
Wide Receivers
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
WR1 - Tyreek Hill
WR2 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR3 - CeeDee Lamb
WR4 - Justin Jefferson
WR5 - Nico Collins
WR6 - A.J. Brown 
WR7 - Garrett Wilson
WR8 - Deebo Samuel
WR9 - Mike Evans
WR10 - Puka Nacua
WR11 - Jaylen Waddle
WR12 - Davante Adams
WR13 - Rashee Rice
Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big Week 1 score
WR14 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR15 - Chris Olave
WR16 - Cooper Kupp
WR17 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR18 - DJ Moore
WR19 - Malik Nabers
WR20 - Drake London
WR21 - DeVonta Smith
WR25 - Stefon Diggs
WR28 - Tank Dell
Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2
WR22 - Diontae Johnson
WR23 - Michael Pittman
WR24 - DK Metcalf
WR26 - Terry McLaurin
WR27 - Amari Cooper
WR32 - Courtland Sutton
WR33 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR34 - Calvin Ridley (would move him up to WR29 if Hopkins is ruled out)
WR40 - George Pickens
Tier 4 -- Super solid Week 1 projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential)
WR29 - Chris Godwin
WR30 - Christian Kirk
WR31 - Joshua Palmer
WR45 - Khalil Shakir
WR46 - Jayden Reed (he's so freaking good. He can create blow-up game potential in any given week, even if he's only targeted six times. Betting against good players sucks lol)
WR47 - Andrei Iosivas
WR48 - Romeo Doubs
Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun!
WR35 - Xavier Worthy
WR36 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR37 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR38 - Zay Flowers
WR39 - Keenan Allen
WR41 - Curtis Samuel
WR42 - Keon Coleman
WR43 - Rashid Shaheed
WR44 - Christian Watson
WR49 - Rome Odunze
WR53 - Adonai Mitchell
WR60 - Luke McCaffrey
WR61 - Ladd McConkey
WR65 - Marvin Mims
Tier 6 -- Desperation plays
WR48 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR50 - Jameson Williams
WR51 - Demarcus Robinson
WR52 - Adam Thielen
WR54 - Tyler Lockett
WR55 - Darnell Mooney
WR56 - Jakobi Meyers
WR57 - Jalen McMillan
WR58 - Gabe Davis
WR60 - Jordan Addison
WR62 - Brandin Cooks
WR63 - Demario Douglas
WR64 - Michael Wilson
WR66 - Jerry Jeudy
WR67 - Rashod Bateman
WR68 - Darius Slayton
WR69 - Ja'Lynn Polk
WR70 - Tyler Boyd
WR71 - Greg Dortch
WR72 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR75 - Josh Reynolds
Tight Ends
Tier 1 -- Locked-in
TE1 - Sam LaPorta
TE2 - Trey McBride
TE3 - Travis Kelce
TE4 - Mark Andrews
TE5 - Dalton Kincaid
TE6 - Evan Engram
Week 1 with a massive implied point total vs. a susceptible Arizona defense sure feels like a coming-out party for Buffalo's new pass-game centerpiece, Dalton Kincaid.
Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up
TE7 - Kyle Pitts
TE8 - George Kittle
TE9 - David Njoku
TE10 - Jake Ferguson
Tier 3 -- Wild cards!
TE11 - Taysom Hill
TE12 - Brock Bowers
Tier 4 -- These guys are probably going to play a ton. I'm not sure what they'll do with their opportunities, but you can feel some level of confidence placing cheap bets on them in Week 1
TE13 - Colby Parkinson
TE14 - Dallas Goedert
TE15 - Tyler Conklin
TE16 - Luke Musgrave
TE17 - Zach Ertz
TE18 - Noah Fant (revenge game, please give us a big Noah Fant game!)
TE19 - Dalton Schultz
TE24 - Cade Otton
TE28 - Kylen Granson
TE29 - Dawson Knox
Tier 5 -- Playing time feels less clear
TE20 - Hunter Henry (health?)
TE21 - Pat Freiermuth
TE22 - Juwan Johnson
TE23 - Cole Kmet
TE25 - Jonnu Smith
TE26 - Kylen Granson
TE27 - Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE28 - Chogiziem Okonkwo
TE29 - Dawson Knox
TE30 - Michael Mayer
I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun!
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan!
 
 
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