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| Friday, August 30, 2024 |
| In just one short week, we will have seen a rematch of the 2024 AFC Championship game. Will Zay Flowers get his revenge? What type of impact will Xavier Worthy have? Are Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews about to remind everyone that they're the best tight ends in football? Will opposing defenses simply wilt at the overwhelmingly cool aesthetic of Derrick Henry in a Baltimore Ravens uni? |
| We will have answers in just one short week! And, on top of that, we will have the answers for what is going to happen in all of the weekend games thanks to the great Rich Hribar. I have not encountered an analyst with the level of attention to detail that Rich brings, and I could not be more excited to talk with him to prepare for Week 1. You'll be able to find that conversation on the FFT Express podcast feed. |
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| If you want to help us grow the show, please subscribe to the FFT Express stream and leave a rating/review that mentions our show! |
| Okay, today, we are here for one thing, and it's not Dan Schneier's pathetic rankings. We are here to catch you up on all the latest changes to my rankings before a big draft weekend. Brandon Aiyuk finally signed. The season is here. Let's do this! |
Tiered RB Rankings
Tiered WR Rankings
Tiered TE Rankings |
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| Also, you can watch/listen to me, Adam, Jamey, and Dave examine rankings through the lens of CBS ADP! I jumped on a podcast with those three this morning, here's the link. |
| We are so close |
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| Yo, check out this insane stat that I found thanks to the great Scott Barrett. |
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| It was actually McLaughlin, and not George Pickens, who moved up the most in my rankings update. I was too low on McLaughlin. That was partially due to an underwhelming collegiate receiving profile. You can read more about that in this Twitter thread. The release of Samaje Perine leaves McLaughlin as likely to play a much larger role on passing downs than he did as an undrafted rookie. Denver certainly kept him busy in the pass game this preseason, and I thought that McLaughlin looked like the same electric playmaker that we saw in 2023. You can watch every McLaughlin preseason opportunity here. |
| George Pickens is definitely moving up with confirmation that there will be no Brandon Aiyuk trade. Part of the reason that I had Pickens low was that I was fine missing out on a big season from him. I didn't necessarily expect the Aiyuk deal to get done, but the risk was enough for me to just not feel any need to add anymore Pickens exposure. Pittsburgh's offense was horrendous this preseason. I think that Pickens could see a lot more targets than people are expecting and may very well ball, but I really would be shocked if Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson produce enough passing touchdowns for me to regret missing out on Pickens. |
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| Fortunately, we finally have news on Aiyuk's contract before this weekend's drafts. I moved Pickens up from WR36 to WR28. As a quick reminder, Pickens filled in as Pittsburgh's WR1 without Diontae Johnson for a month and saw a near-30% target share. Now in Year 3, Pickens has had a whole offseason to prepare for his role as Pittsburgh's top receiver. |
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| A look ahead at the in-season weekly content cycle: |
| Before we get into the rankings update, let me give you a glimpse at what you can expect in this space going forward. |
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| You'll also be able to catch me on FFT twice each week! |
| Also, I'd love to play in some guillotine leagues with FFT newsletter readers this year. That'd be super fun! Maybe we can get Dan to draft some with us too, who knows?! He's a busy guy. If you wanna put together a guillotine league with me, reply to this tweet and we'll make it happen! |
Positional Tiered Rankings Update
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| QB TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- I view these as the two best quarterbacks in the game, and each has a top-five Vegas implied team point total for 2024. |
QB1 - Josh Allen
QB2 - Patrick Mahomes |
| Tier 2 -- I view these two as a step below Allen and Mahomes as players and I'm not sold that we'll get elite production from their offenses. |
QB3 - Lamar Jackson
QB4 - Jalen Hurts |
| Tier 3 -- They aren't proven, but there's legitimate QB1 overall upside |
QB5 - Anthony Richardson
QB8 - Jayden Daniels (Our first instance of a player being placed in a tier "above" players who are ranked higher. What does it mean? Well, the tiers are really only a loose representation of order. I'm using them mostly for categorization. This player fits in the same archetype as the player(s) sharing the tier. If that archetype fits a team need, maybe it makes sense to take this player above players who are ranked higher. If the archetypes don't matter for your particular team build, you are probably better off taking the player who is ranked higher) |
| Tier 4 -- Elite floor+upside combo |
QB6 - C.J. Stroud
QB7 - Joe Burrow
QB9 - Kyler Murray
QB12 - Dak Prescott |
| Tier 5 -- Upside to outscore the Tier 4 quarterbacks, but we're still really early in their career. Inconsistency could be a 2024 theme |
QB10 - Jordan Love
QB11 - Caleb Williams |
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| Tier 6 -- Should have a strong offensive environment and could push into the top-six range with an outlier TD total |
QB13 - Trevor Lawrence
QB14 - Tua Tagovailoa
QB15 - Jared Goff
QB16 - Kirk Cousins
QB17 - Brock Purdy (originally, he was at the top of this tier. I'm not drafting him until I know what's going on with Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk)
QB20 - Geno Smith
QB21 - Matthew Stafford
QB22 - Aaron Rodgers |
| Tier 7 -- Named Drake Maye and capable of moving up the Fantasy QB rankings faster than any player. |
| QB23 - Drake Maye |
| Tier 8 -- Truly no idea what we can expect from this group, but there is a path to upside |
QB18 - Justin Herbert (most recently, reports are that Herbert's early season mobility may be limited)
QB19 - Deshaun Watson
QB24 - Daniel Jones
QB25 - Sam Darnold
QB27 - Bo Nix
QB28 - Will Levis
QB29 - Bryce Young (I'm very excited to see if he can take a Year 2 leap, but Carolina's 31st-ranked implied point total is so hard to overlook)
QB32 - Justin Fields |
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| Tier 9 -- Might be serviceable starters, but there's very little upside |
QB26 - Baker Mayfield
QB30 - Derek Carr
QB31 - Russell Wilson
QB33 - Gardner Minshew |
| RB TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- CMC |
| RB1 - Christian McCaffrey |
| Tier 2 -- Could score like CMC, even without a teammate injury |
RB2 - Breece Hall
RB3 - Bijan Robinson
RB5 - De'Von Achane |
| Tier 3 -- Could score like CMC with a teammate injury |
| RB4 - Jahmyr Gibbs |
| Tier 4 -- Workhorse RB with huge TD upside but mid receiving projections |
RB6 - Jonathan Taylor
RB7 - Kyren Williams
RB8 - Derrick Henry
RB9 - Josh Jacobs
RB10 - Isiah Pacheco
RB11 - Saquon Barkley |
| Tier 5 -- Potential workhorse RB with decent TD and target upside |
RB12 - Travis Etienne
RB13 - Kenneth Walker
RB14 - Rachaad White
RB15 - James Conner |
| Tier 6 -- Low-ceiling options who you can probably trust as weekly RB2 starters |
RB16 - James Cook
RB18 - Najee Harris
RB21 - Joe Mixon
RB22 - Alvin Kamara (he'll almost certainly finish higher than this if you want to grab him as a "small win" value. I'd rather take a WR with upside in the range where he is typically drafted. I see more upside for the running backs ahead of him in this tier. Harris could move into 300+ touch role if Jaylen Warren ever were to miss time. Cook and Mixon bring more TD scoring upside than Kamara. Last season was probably a +90th percentile outcome for Kamara, in terms of scoring PPR points)
RB24 - Aaron Jones
RB26 - Rhamondre Stevenson
RB30 - Devin Singletary |
| Tier 7 -- Low-ceiling options who you might be able to trust as weekly RB2 starters |
RB36 - Gus Edwards
RB37 - Zamir White
RB38 - Ezekiel Elliott
RB49 - Austin Ekeler
RB53 - Rico Dowdle |
| Tier 8 -- I'm not convinced that they'll have the role, but a role might exist that gives these RBs surprising upside |
RB23 - Javonte Williams
RB25 - D'Andre Swift
RB27 - Tyjae Spears
RB28 - Tony Pollard
RB35 - J.K. Dobbins |
| Tier 9 -- Probably fine starters if needed, and there's upside for much more if there's a teammate injury |
RB17 - David Montgomery (again, don't get hung up on the ordering of the tiers. See the note on Jayden Daniels if you missed it)
RB18 - Raheem Mostert
RB29 - Jaylen Warren
RB32 - Zack Moss
RB33 - Chase Brown
RB34 - Brian Robinson |
| Tier 10 -- Probably only early-season options, but capable of helping bridge the gap if needed |
RB44 - Chuba Hubbard
RB52 - Jerome Ford |
| Tier 11 -- Maybe capable of offering flex value, could be more with a backfield injury |
RB31 - Blake Corum
RB35 - Ray Davis
RB40 - Trey Benson (I'm not so sure that Benson belongs in this tier. My guess is that it's James Conner's backfield, at least out of the gate)
RB41 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB42 - Zach Charbonnet
RB43 - Bucky Irving
RB50 - Tyler Allgeier
RB54 - Tank Bigsby
RB57 - Khalil Herbert
RB59 - Ty Chandler
RB60 - Justice Hill |
| Tier 12 -- True handcuffs |
RB39 - Jaylen Wright
RB45 - Kimani Vidal
RB46 - Tyrone Tracy
RB47 - Jordan Mason
RB48 - MarShawn Lloyd
RB61 - Trey Sermon
RB63 - Antonio Gibson |
| Tier 13 -- Potential handcuffs |
RB51 - Sione Vaki (potential obstacle - Craig Reynolds)
RB56 - Carson Steele (potential obstacle - Samaje Perine)
RB62 - Braelon Allen (potential obstacle - Israel Abanikanda)
RB64 - Will Shipley (potential obstacle - Kenneth Gainwell)
RB65 - Cam Akers (potential obstacle - Dameon Pierce) |
| Tier 14 -- Late-season saviors? |
RB20 -- Jonathon Brooks
RB57 -- Nick Chubb |
| WR TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- Cheat codes |
WR1 - CeeDee Lamb
WR2 - Tyreek Hill |
| Tier 2 -- Also the best WRs in the NFL, not quite the perfect-storm circumstances for Fantasy |
WR3 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR4 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR5 - A.J. Brown
WR6 - Justin Jefferson |
| Tier 3 -- Purely hypothetical, but it could be really cool |
WR7 - Garrett Wilson
WR10 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR13 - Drake London |
| Tier 4 -- Studs in perfect roles who could compete with Tier 2 and Tier 3 WRs in terms of Fantasy production |
WR8 - Nico Collins
WR11 - Deebo Samuel
WR17 - DJ Moore
WR24 - Rashee Rice
WR26 - Tank Dell |
| Tier 5 -- Studs who have lingering question marks as Week 1 approaches |
WR9 - Puka Nacua (injury)
WR12 - Jaylen Waddle (injury) |
| Tier 6 -- They're really good, the target projection looks amazing, but limited TD upside will likely prevent a truly elite Fantasy output |
WR14 - Chris Olave
WR15 - Malik Nabers
WR16 - Davante Adams
WR22 - Diontae Johnson
WR28 - Michael Pittman
WR31 - Christian Kirk |
| Tier 7 -- Probably decent starting options, but may be inconsistent week-to-week |
WR19 - DK Metcalf
WR23 - Mike Evans
WR29 - Amari Cooper
WR33 - Zay Flowers |
| Tier 8 -- No idea which version of this player that we'll get, but the fun version would be a huge W at ADP |
WR19 - DeVonta Smith
WR20 - Cooper Kupp
WR25 - Tee Higgins
WR27 - George Pickens
WR30 - Stefon Diggs
WR32 - Calvin Ridley
WR37 - Christian Watson
WR45 - DeAndre Hopkins
WR48 - Curtis Samuel
WR49 - Marquise Brown
WR54 - Jameson Williams
WR62 - Adonai Mitchell |
| Tier 9 -- Small win late-round picks (even if they prove to be ADP values, I'm not sure we benefit in a big way from drafting them) |
WR34 - Chris Godwin (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR40 - Keenan Allen (maybe he's more than this if the Bears offense takes off!)
WR50 - Darnell Mooney
WR53 - Tyler Lockett
WR56 - Jordan Addison
WR57 - Brandin Cooks
WR59 - Khalil Shakir (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR60 - Romeo Doubs
WR61 - Jerry Jeudy (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR64 - Demario Douglas
WR66 - Demarcus Robinson
WR67 - Greg Dortch
WR68 - Ja'Lynn Polk
WR71 - Adam Thielen (injury-contingent upside for more, but the offense probably falls apart again if Diontae is out)
WR72 - Jakobi Meyers (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR74 - Rashod Bateman
WR75 - Michael Wilson
WR76 - Jalen Tolbert
WR77 - Andrei Iosivas
WR78 - Tyler Boyd
WR82 - Gabe Davis
WR83 - Malachi Corley
WR85 - K.J. Osborn
WR87 - Darius Slayton
WR89 - Jalen Nailor
WR90 - Josh Reynolds
WR93 - Jalin Hyatt
WR94 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR101 - Roman Wilson |
| Tier 10 - Medium win late-round picks |
WR36 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR41 - Terry McLaurin
WR42 - Jayden Reed (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR43 - Josh Palmer
WR44 - Courtland Sutton
WR47 - Rashid Shaheed
WR51 - Jalen McMillan (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR52 - Ladd McConkey
WR55 - Josh Downs (injury-contingent upside for more)
WR63 - Luke McCaffrey
WR73 - Mike Williams
WR81 - Marvin Mims
WR91 - Tim Patrick |
| You might notice that players like Jordan Addison, Tyler Lockett, Rashid Shaheed, and Ladd McConkey did not receive the 'injury-contingent' designation, even though each has a WR1 present on their team whose removal would hypothetically result in more opportunities. I don't feel as confident that those players are capable of consistently winning as the number one option in an offense and truly benefiting in a noteworthy way) |
| Tier 11 -- Big win late-round picks |
WR35 - Xavier Worthy
WR38 - Brian Thomas Jr.
WR39 - Rome Odunze
WR46 - Keon Coleman |
| Tier 12 -- Buried on a depth chart but might be good |
WR58 - Dontayvion Wicks
WR65 - Xavier Legette
WR69 - Ricky Pearsall
WR70 - Jermaine Burton
WR79 - Malik Washington
WR80 - Jacob Cowing
WR84 - Jahan Dotson
WR86 - Jordan Whittington
WR88 - Cedric Tillman
WR92 - Johnny Wilson
WR95 - Javon Baker
WR96 - Tre Tucker
WR97 - Quentin Johnston
WR98 - John Metchie
WR100 - Tyler Scott |
| TE TIERS |
| Tier 1 -- Young studs with elite peripherals in good offenses |
TE1 - Trey McBride
TE2 - Sam LaPorta (He's my TE1 for half-PPR or non-PPR) |
| Tier 2 -- You know who they are |
TE3 - Travis Kelce
TE4 - Mark Andrews
TE7 - George Kittle |
| A Mark Andrews reminder, in case you need one. Another reminder: He's missing practice. Ravens injury reporting is always weird. Harbaugh expects him to be ready for Week 1. |
| Tier 3 -- If things swing their way, these are TE1 overall candidates |
TE5 - Kyle Pitts
TE6 - Dalton Kincaid |
| Tier 4 -- He's Jake Ferguson, and he's our savior if we miss out on the elite TE upside |
| TE8 - Jake Ferguson |
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| Tier 5 -- They're good! |
TE9 - Evan Engram
TE10 - David Njoku |
| Tier 6 -- Young tight ends who could outproduce Kincaid and Pitts and it would be no surprise at all |
TE11 - Brock Bowers
TE12 - Luke Musgrave
TE13 - T.J. Hockenson (he's not as young as the players in this tier, but he could sneakily outproduce a lot of the tight ends drafted ahead of him down the stretch run if Minnesota's offense is functional)
TE14 - Ben Sinnott (on a per-game basis if/when he supplants Zach Ertz) |
| Tier 7 -- I never draft these players |
TE15 - Dallas Goedert (there is injury-contingent upside)
TE16 - Dalton Schultz (he might score touchdowns! I don't wanna bet on it)
TE17 - Pat Freiermuth (sad. Arthur Smith strikes again) |
| Tier 8 -- I definitely draft these players |
TE18 - Noah Fant
TE19 - Colby Parkinson
TE20 - Tyler Conklin
TE21 - Taysom Hill
TE22 - Hunter Henry (undisclosed injury) |
| Tier 9 -- I guess there is upside. I'm not sure what to expect from a role standpoint |
TE23 - Cole Kmet
TE24 - Michael Mayer
TE26 - Chigoziem Okonwko
TE29 - Gerald Everett |
| Free late-round tight ends who may be viable |
TE27 - Zach Ertz
TE28 - Kylen Granson
TE32 - Cade Otton
TE33 - Jonnu Smith
TE35 - Theo Johnson
TE37 - Hayden Hurst
TE38 - Will Dissly
TE40 - Tommy Tremble |
| Upside players buried on depth charts |
TE30 - Greg Dulcich
TE31 - Isaiah Likely
TE34 - Erick All
TE35 - Theo Johnson
TE39 - Tucker Kraft
TE42 - Cade Stover
TE43 - Jared Wiley |
| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning during the regular season! Until then, we'll be rocking three days a week. Use your newfound free toilet time wisely. Maybe learn a new language over the next few Tuesdays and Thursdays. You learned how to make sense of my ramblings and made-up stats this summer! You are capable of so much! What might you do with this newfound freedom? The world is yours! I will be sleeping. And I hope to occasionally use my free time on Tuesdays and Thursdays to go outside, maybe get some grass and sun on my skin. Take some deep breaths before we lock in for another fun and chaotic ride. NFL is so back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! |
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| | | | | Big Ten on CBS | | College Football | Kick off the college football season with Big Ten on CBS! It's a B1G TIME Midwest matchup between Akron and Ohio State tomorrow at 3:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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| | Can't get enough college football? Don't worry, it's a Saturday doubleheader! Watch our 3:30 matchup directly followed by a battle between UCLA and Hawaii at 7:30 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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