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| Wednesday, December 22, 2021 |
| Let's just hope we can avoid any re-scheduled games this week, but those Tuesday night games weren't great for anyone. Except for Cooper Kupp, I guess, who is making a strong case to be the No. 2 overall pick in Fantasy drafts next year. |
| But that's a conversation topic for another day. Because today, we're taking our first look at Week 16 with my initial rankings and Heath Cummings' position previews. And things are, obviously, kind of a mess. We've still got players from last week on the COVID list or dealing with injuries, plus we've got nearly the entire Buccaneers skill player group dealing with injuries -- with Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin out for the rest of the regular season -- plus the likes of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Austin Ekeler on the COVID list and Joe Mixon dealing with an ankle injury. |
| Among many other injuries. Although, hey, at least A.J. Brown might be back this week! |
| We'll have updates on all of the injuries you need to know about for Week 16 in tomorrow's newsletter with the first practice reports coming out later today, along with start and sit calls from Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg. |
| For now, I've got my first round of rankings for Week 16 ready to go here: |
QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
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| And you can find more of my thoughts, plus Heath Cummings' preview for each position further down in today's newsletter: |
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🔍Week 16 Position Previews and Rankings
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| Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. This week, I've got Heath's previews for each position as normal, but also my quick thoughts on each plus my rankings for each. Here's everything you need to know for Week 16: |
| QB Preview |
| As we prep for Week 16, COVID remains one of the defining features of the football landscape. At quarterback, we've got three starters – Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff – though the good news is, those guys aren't really Fantasy relevant most weeks, so you probably shouldn't miss them. |
| The bad news is that Lamar Jackson is still dealing with his ankle injury, and we still don't know if he's going to play – though Tyler Huntley was so impressive in his absence that he might be a top-12 QB even if Jackson does have to miss time. So, the really, really bad news is that there just aren't many quarterbacks actually playing well right now. |
| Week 15 saw just 38 passing touchdowns thrown in 32 QB games, the lowest total in a week with a full schedule since Week 15 of 2018. Passing production accounted for just 14.17 Fantasy points per QB game last week, the lowest total of the season and, again, the lowest total since Week 15 of 2018. In an era where passing production has basically consistently increased year over year, the second half of this season has seen a steep decline, and it's impacted elite quarterbacks just as much as the lower tiers, with a few key exceptions. |
| Which makes it hard to know who you can trust in this Fantasy playoff week. For instance, Dak Prescott is averaging just 12.6 points per game over his past five, while Kyler Murray hasn't topped 20 in either of his past two games. Patrick Mahomes has been wildly inconsistent, and, oh yeah, Tom Brady just lost his top three targets from this season. |
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Injuries: Lamar Jackson (ankle), Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), Taylor Heinicke (COVID), Baker Mayfield (COVID) and Jared Goff (COVID)
Number to know: 22% -- Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are the only two quarterbacks with a bad throw percentage over 22% per Pro Football Reference. They face off this week, but can either take advantage of the matchup?Matchup that matters: Joe Burrow vs. BAL (28th in points allowed to QB)Top streamer: "Tyler Huntley. Huntley is my top priority for now just because he has the most upside if Jackson is out. But you should definitely have another quarterback rostered if you go this direction." Top DFS play: "Justin Herbert. Let's pretend for a moment that Lamar Jackson is back. That makes Herbert my top value on the slate. He's also my highest-scoring projected quarterback this week against the Texans." |
| My Top 24 |
| Justin Herbert @HOUAaron Rodgers vs. CLETom Brady @CARJosh Allen @NEPatrick Mahomes vs. PITJalen Hurts vs. NYGLamar Jackson @CINKyler Murray vs. IND Matthew Stafford @MINDak Prescott vs. WASRussell Wilson vs. CHITaysom Hill vs. MIAJoe Burrow vs. BALTua Tagovailoa @NOKirk Cousins vs. LARCam Newton vs. TB Matt Ryan vs. DETDerek Carr vs. DENJustin Fields @SEAJimmy Garoppolo @TENTrevor Lawrence @NYJRyan Tannehill vs. SFZach Wilson vs. JAXCarson Wentz @ARI |
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| RB Preview |
| Josh Jacobs is my No. 5 RB this week. Ezekiel Elliott is still top-10 for me. Maybe my rankings are just wildly off base this week, or maybe the running back position is just a total mess. That doesn't mean there aren't good options – there actually are plenty of really intriguing players out there. The problem is, it's hard to know who you can trust, as of Wednesday afternoon, at least. |
| For instance, I could see ranking the likes of Samaje Perine, Justin Jackson, or Jeff Wilson ahead of Elliott, but we just don't yet know what their roles are going to be. If Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and Elijah Mitchell are all out, maybe all three would be ahead of Elliott. But, until we know those starters are out, it's hard to make that call. |
| It's similarly hard to make that call with guys in split backfields, most notably Aaron Jones and Javonte Williams. There's obviously big upside with both, but both seem to be stuck in near 50-50 splits in their own backfields. Cordarrelle Patterson has an incredible matchup against Detroit, but he's also seen his role in the passing game decrease significantly of late, leaving him much more touchdown-dependent than he was earlier in the season for his value. |
| And then there's Elliott, who just hasn't been good for a long time – he's averaging 3.3 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per target over his past six games. That's brutal. But he's also getting five targets per game and at 12.2 carries, and the Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites against Washington. I'd expect he's going to continue to have a healthy workload and a good chance for a touchdown. Maybe his upside isn't as high as some other backs, but his role just remains too valuable for me to get away from. |
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Injuries: Joe Mixon (ankle), Leonard Fournette (hamstring), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Damien Harris (hamstring), Kareem Hunt (COVID), Alexander Mattison (COVID), D'Onta Foreman (ankle), J.D. McKissic (concussion) and Alex Collins (COVID)
Number to know: 90 -- Touches for Ronald Jones in four games without Fournette last year. Matchup that matters: Jeff Wilson @TEN (1st in points allowed to RB)Stash: "Khalil Herbert. Herbert, and backs like him, should be filling your bench spots, just in case they end up with a feature role in Week 17." Top DFS play: "Ronald Jones. Yes, everyone is going to play Jones if Fournette is out. No, I'm not brave enough to fade him at a high roster rate." |
| My Top 48 |
Jonathan Taylor @ARIDalvin Cook vs. LARJames Robinson @NYJAlvin Kamara vs. MIAJosh Jacobs vs. DENDavid Montgomery @SEANajee Harris @KC Nick Chubb @GBRonald Jones @CARAntonio Gibson @DALEzekiel Elliott vs. WASSamaje Perine vs. BALJavonte Williams @LVCordarrelle Patterson vs. DETAaron Jones vs. CLESaquon Barkley @PHIJustin Jackson @HOU Jeff Wilson @TENMiles Sanders vs. NYGClyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PITDevin Singletary @NEMyles Gaskin @NOAJ Dillon vs. CLEMelvin Gordon @LVD'Onta Foreman vs. SF Sony Michel @MINRhamondre Stevenson vs. BUFAmeer Abdullah vs. TBChuba Hubbard vs. TBJames Conner vs. INDChase Edmonds vs. INDRashaad Penny vs. CHICraig Reynolds @ATLDevonta Freeman @CINTevin Coleman vs. JAXDeeJay Dallas vs. CHIDarrell Henderson @MINGodwin Igwebuike @ATLDarrel Williams vs. PITBrandon Bolden vs. BUFLe'Veon Bell @CARMike Davis vs. DET Joshua Kelley @HOUDavid Johnson vs. LACNyheim Hines @ARICorey Clement vs. WASJordan Howard vs. NYGDuke Johnson @NO
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| WR Preview |
| How many wide receivers can you really trust in Week 16? For many of you, this week is your chance to get into the Fantasy championship, after likely having skated by during one of the worst Fantasy weeks I can remember, and right now it feels like there aren't any wide receivers you can trust. |
| Of course, that's not true. There are dozens of them! Dozens! |
| Okay, probably not plural-dozens. Maybe just a dozen. In my rankings this week, there is a pretty dramatic drop in projected production between No. 9, Deebo Samuel, and No. 10, Jaylen Waddle, however, I would still feel pretty good about starting basically everyone through WR13, Marquise Brown. And, heck, I'll throw CeeDee Lamb in there, and probably Tee Higgins, despite his struggles in Week 15. And yeah, Russell Gage is pretty hard to get away from, and Gabriel Davis looks like a potential league-winner with Cole Beasley and possibly Emmanuel Sanders out. Okay, fine, Christian Kirk, too – he has 31 targets in the four games DeAndre Hopkins has missed this season. |
| But certainly not Michael Pittman, Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Claypool, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, or … well, you get the point. So, not quite dozens, but more than a dozen, for sure. Hopefully, having made the playoffs, you don't have to reach too much further than, say, No. 20 in the rankings for your starters. Because it's rough out there. |
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Injuries: Chris Godwin (ACL), Mike Evans (hamstring), Tyler Lockett (COVID), Adam Thielen (ankle), Julio Jones (hamstring), Jarvis Landry (COVID), Emmanuel Sanders (knee), Allen Robinson (COVID), Kendrick Bourne (COVID), Kadarius Toney (COVID) and Sterling Shepard (Achilles)
Number to know: 35 -- Targets for Amon-Ra St. Brown over his last three games. He's an alpha No. 1 without T.J. Hockenson.
Matchup that matters: Amon-Ra St. Brown (30th in points allowed to WR)Stash: "Jakobi Meyers. Meyers gets Jacksonville in Week 17." Top DFS play: "Antonio Brown. Brown projects as a top-six wide receiver this week. He's not priced like one at all." |
| My Top 48 |
| Cooper Kupp @MINDavante Adams vs. CLEJustin Jefferson vs. LARKeenan Allen @HOUStefon Diggs @NEAntonio Brown @CARDiontae Johnson @KCHunter Renfrow vs. DENDeebo Samuel @TENJaylen Waddle @NOD.J. Moore vs. TBAmon-Ra St. Brown @ATLMarquise Brown @CINCeeDee Lamb vs. WASTee Higgins vs. BALRussell Gage vs. DETGabriel Davis @NE Christian Kirk vs. INDMichael Pittman @ARIJa'Marr Chase vs. BALChase Claypool @KCTerry McLaurin @DALAmari Cooper vs. WASBrandon Aiyuk @TEND.K. Metcalf vs. CHIDeVante Parker @NO Odell Beckham @MINJakobi Meyers vs. BUFA.J. Green vs. INDMike Williams @HOUJerry Jeudy @LVJamison Crowder vs. JAXK.J. Osborn vs. LARDeVonta Smith vs. NYG Van Jefferson @MINLaviska Shenault @NYJMecole Hardman vs. PITMichael Gallup vs. WASTyler Boyd vs. BALDarnell Mooney @SEAKenny Golladay @PHIMarvin Jones @NYJAdam Humphries @DAL Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CLERashod Bateman @CINLaquon Treadwell @NYJDonovan Peoples-Jones @GB |
| TE Preview |
| There was some talk last week around Fantasy Football circles about Travis Kelce no longer being the No. 1 tight end, so he went out and put together the sixth-best tight end performance in a single game since 2000, with 41.1 PPR points. Of course, it's not like Mark Andrews, the consensus No. 1 last week, was much worse – he had the 17th-best performance, with 35.6 points. And it's worth pausing here, as the Fantasy playoffs move to the semi-finals, to note just how big of an edge those elite tight ends have still been able to give you this season. |
| Of the 30-best tight end performances in a single game since 2000, six have happened this season: |
| No. 5: Mark Andrews in Week 5 – 41.7 PPR pointsNo. 6: Travis Kelce in Week 15 – 41.1No. 9: George Kittle in Week 13 – 39.6No. 17: Mark Andrews in Week 15 – 35.6No. 30: George Kittle in Week 14 – 34.1 |
| Talk about coming up big at the right time. Overall, this position remains incredibly weak, with just six or maybe seven players I feel good about starting right now, with a clear drop after No. 4, Rob Gronkowski. The elites at the position still remain arguably the biggest consistent edge you can find in Fantasy – though, unfortunately, Kelce's status for Week 16 is very much in doubt after he tested positive for COVID, shrinking the already shallow pool of reliable options at the worst time. |
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Injuries: Travis Kelce (COVID), Darren Waller (knee), Pat Freiermuth (concussion), Tyler Higbee (COVID) and Austin Hooper (COVID) Number to know: 10 -- The Raiders have allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season, the second most in the NFL behind the Chargers.
Matchup that matters: Cole Kmet @SEA (28th in points allowed to TE)Streamer: "Kmet. Kmet has had intermittent high target games and has a great matchup against Washington." Top DFS play: "Rob Gronkowski. The loss of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should lead to increased target share for Gronkowski." |
| My Top 24 |
Mark Andrews @CIN
George Kittle @TENRob Gronkowski @CARKyle Pitts vs. DETDallas Goedert vs. NYGZach Ertz vs. INDDawson Knox @NEDalton Schultz vs. WAS Gerald Everett vs. CHITyler Higbee @MINJames O'Shaughnessy @NYJRicky Seals-Jones @DALFoster Moreau vs. DENJared Cook @HOUMike Gesicki @NOTyler Conklin vs. LARHunter Henry vs. BUFAustin Hooper @GBCole Kmet @SEADavid Njoku @GBEvan Engram @PHINoah Fant @LVBrevin Jordan vs. LACC.J. Uzomah vs. BAL |
| Top-150 Flex rankings |
| Jonathan Taylor @ARIDalvin Cook vs. LARCooper Kupp @MINDavante Adams vs. CLEJustin Jefferson vs. LARTyreek Hill vs. PITKeenan Allen @HOUJames Robinson @NYJStefon Diggs @NE Alvin Kamara vs. MIAJosh Jacobs vs. DENAntonio Brown @CARDavid Montgomery @SEANajee Harris @KCNick Chubb @GBTravis Kelce vs. PITRonald Jones @CARMark Andrews @CINAntonio Gibson @DAL Diontae Johnson @KCHunter Renfrow vs. DENDeebo Samuel @TENEzekiel Elliott vs. WASGeorge Kittle @TENSamaje Perine vs. BALJavonte Williams @LVCordarrelle Patterson vs. DETBrandin Cooks vs. LACAaron Jones vs. CLE Saquon Barkley @PHIJaylen Waddle @NOD.J. Moore vs. TBJustin Jackson @HOUMyles Gaskin @NOJeff Wilson @TENMiles Sanders vs. NYGAmon-Ra St. Brown @ATLMarquise Brown @CINCeeDee Lamb vs. WAS Tee Higgins vs. BALRussell Gage vs. DETClyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PITDevin Singletary @NERob Gronkowski @CARMichael Carter vs. JAXAJ Dillon vs. CLEMelvin Gordon @LVGabriel Davis @NED'Onta Foreman vs. SF Sony Michel @MINRhamondre Stevenson vs. BUFAmeer Abdullah vs. TBChristian Kirk vs. INDMichael Pittman @ARIJa'Marr Chase vs. BALChuba Hubbard vs. TBChase Claypool @KCJames Conner vs. INDTerry McLaurin @DAL Amari Cooper vs. WASChase Edmonds vs. INDKyle Pitts vs. DETBrandon Aiyuk @TEND.K. Metcalf vs. CHIDeVante Parker @NOOdell Beckham @MINJakobi Meyers vs. BUFA.J. Green vs. INDMike Williams @HOU Jerry Jeudy @LVRashaad Penny vs. CHIJamison Crowder vs. JAXK.J. Osborn vs. LARCraig Reynolds @ATLDallas Goedert vs. NYGZach Ertz vs. INDDevonta Freeman @CINDeeJay Dallas vs. CHIDarrell Henderson @MIN DeVonta Smith vs. NYGVan Jefferson @MINDawson Knox @NELaviska Shenault @NYJGodwin Igwebuike @ATLMichael Gallup vs. WASTyler Boyd vs. BALDarnell Mooney @SEADarrel Williams vs. PITKenny Golladay @PHI Mecole Hardman vs. PITMarvin Jones @NYJAdam Humphries @DALBrandon Bolden vs. BUFDalton Schultz vs. WASLe'Veon Bell @CARGerald Everett vs. CHIMike Davis vs. DETJoshua Kelley @HOUMarquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CLE David Johnson vs. LACTyler Higbee @MINJames O'Shaughnessy @NYJRashod Bateman @CINNyheim Hines @ARICorey Clement vs. WASJordan Howard vs. NYGRicky Seals-Jones @DALLaquon Treadwell @NYJDonovan Peoples-Jones @GB Foster Moreau vs. DENTevin Coleman vs. JAXBryan Edwards vs. DENDuke Johnson @NOJared Cook @HOURondale Moore vs. INDTim Patrick @LVDevontae Booker @PHIDontrell Hilliard vs. SFMike Gesicki @NO Tyler Conklin vs. LARRobby Anderson vs. TBHunter Henry vs. BUFKendrick Bourne vs. BUFAustin Hooper @GBTyler Johnson @CARCole Kmet @SEAOlamide Zaccheaus vs. DETScott Miller @CARAlbert Wilson @NO Mark Ingram vs. MIAAllen Lazard vs. CLET.Y. Hilton @ARIMarquez Callaway vs. MIAJeremy McNichols vs. SFRex Burkhead vs. LACNelson Agholor vs. BUFDavid Njoku @GBNico Collins vs. LACFreddie Swain vs. CHI Evan Engram @PHINoah Fant @LVLatavius Murray @CINBrevin Jordan vs. LACC.J. Uzomah vs. BALZay Jones vs. DENNick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. SFDeAndre Carter @DALCourtland Sutton @LVPeyton Barber vs. DEN Josh Palmer @HOU |
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