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| Thursday, June 5, 2025 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| We're going to start things off here today by wishing a happy 28th birthday to Sam Darnold. He may not be the best quarterback in the NFL, but I think we can safely say that he's the best quarterback ever to be born on June 5 and that's something to hang your hat on. |
| Speaking of Darnold, we'll be ranking the top new coach and QB duos for the 2025 season in today's newsletter. We'll be ranking a total of 13 quarterback-coaching pairs, including Darnold and Mike Macdonald in Seattle. We'll also be taking a look at the top Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Ranking the NFL's 13 new coach-QB duos for 2025 |
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| If doesn't seem possible, but more than 40% of the NFL will have a new coach-quarterback combination in 2025. |
| The turnover has been so crazy this year that there are actually 13 new QB-coach duos. Since we have so many new duos this year, Cody Benjamin decided to rank all of them based on how successful they might be in 2025. |
| Here's a look at Cody's top four: |
1. Raiders: Geno Smith and Pete Carroll (Note: They count as a new duo since they're on a new team together). "if you're looking for a high floor this year, it's almost got to be the new faces of the silver and black. Though streaky, Geno still possesses the kind of big-play arm the Raiders haven't seen for years. Carroll, meanwhile, is a proven culture-builder whose infectious personality has the potential to bring the best out of unforeseen corners of the Las Vegas locker room."
2. Cowboys: Dak Prescott and Brian Schottenheimer. "This tandem is all about Prescott. Yes, he still lacks a defining big-game run. Yes, he's been banged up quite a bit in recent years. He's also a top-10, total-package passer when healthy."
3. Vikings: J.J. McCarthy and Kevin O'Connell. "This might seem ridiculously high considering McCarthy has yet to take a real NFL snap. ... Still, all McCarthy really needs to be is adequate to capitalize on the Vikings' treasure trove of playmakers, all of whom are maximized by O'Connell's beloved leadership. He thrived as a point guard at Michigan; who's to say he can't be just that in purple?"
4. Bears: Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. "The challenge for Johnson, who arrives from the rival Lions with mighty expectations thanks to his ultra-aggressive hand in Detroit's turnaround, will be unlocking Williams' gunslinging gifts while keeping his freestyling in check." |
| If you want to know where quarterabcks like Russell Wilson, Cam Ward and Sam Darnold ended up, you can check out Cody's full list here. Although it's Darnold's birthday, Cody didn't show him any special treatment. The Seahawks quarterback didn't even crack the top five. |
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| 2. Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates: Five long-shot players who could win the award |
| After ranking the top candidates for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year earlier this week, we're flipping over to the other side of the ball today to look at the top candidates for Defensive Rookie of the Year. CBS Sports draft guru Chris Trapasso ranked his top five candidates and we're going to check them out below along with each player's odds of winning the award (via Caesars Sportsbook): |
1. EDGE James Pearce (Falcons): +1700
2. CB Travis Hunter (Jaguars): +1000
3. EDGE Abdul Carter (Giants): +250
4. CB Maxwell Hairston (Bills): +4000
5. EDGE Mike Green (Ravens): +1100 |
| Defensive Rookie of the Year is one of the most wide-open awards the NFL has, which might explain why Trapasso has four players on his list who have odds of 10-to-1 or more. Over the past three seasons alone, we've seen three different positions win it with CB Sauce Gardner in 2022, DE Will Anderson Jr. in 2023 and OLB Jared Verse in 2024. That makes this award one of the most difficult to predict. |
| The only thing that's consistent about this award in recent history is that it almost always goes to a first-round pick. In 17 of the past 18 years, a first-rounder has walked away with the award. (Colts LB Shaq Leonard is the only non-first-rounder to win it since 2007). Green is the only non-first round player on Trapasso's list. |
| If you're thinking about making a bet, Pearce and Hairston definitely seem to be the best values based on Trapasso's rankings. If you're wondering why Pearce is at the top of his rankings despite his long odds, you can read Trapasso's full explanation here. |
| 3. NFL teams that double-dipped in the draft at the same position |
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| It's always interesting when an NFL team uses two different picks in the draft on the SAME position. In some instances, it's obvious why a team decides to double-dip. For instance, the Browns became the first team since 2013 to select two quarterbacks in the first five rounds and they did that because they're in desperate need of a franchise quarterback. |
| Josh Edwards decided to take a look at a few other teams that double-dipped this year to see what their plan might be going forward. |
FALCONS
EDGE Jalon Walker, Georgia: Round 1 (pick 15)
EDGE James Pearce Jr., Tennessee: Round 1 (pick 26)
Josh's breakdown: "Atlanta has finished with one of the three lowest team pressure rates in three of the past five years, according to TruMedia. The decision to use not one, but two first-round picks on the position may reek of desperation, because that is exactly what it is -- a multi-year problem cresting in a drastic resolution." |
PACKERS
WR Matthew Golden, Texas: Round 1 (pick 23)
WR Savion Williams, TCU: Round 3 (pick 87)
Josh's breakdown: "Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are slated to become unrestricted free agents after the season. Wicks will be a restricted free agent. To maintain a threshold of cheap production, the Packers had to reinvest in the position to account for eventual losses. The hope is that Golden develops into a caliber of player the team is comfortable paying top of the market." |
PANTHERS
EDGE Nic Scourton, Texas A&M: Round 2 (pick 51)
EDGE Princely Umanmielen, Ole Miss: Round 3 (pick 77)
Josh's breakdown: "Carolina finished dead last in team pressure rate (25.2%) last season, according to TruMedia. It traded veteran Brian Burns last offseason in an effort to funnel resources toward supporting young quarterback Bryce Young and recently released veteran Jadeveon Clowney. There were no foundational pillars on which to build. By double-dipping at the position, they are hoping at least one can be a difference-making pass rusher." |
| Josh broke down a total of eight teams, and you can see his full list here. |
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| 4. Unhappy campers: NFL players sitting out due to contract issues |
| The NFL offseason is almost four months old, which means that each team has had plenty of time to work out any potential contract issues with any disgruntled player on their roster. However, as we get ready to head into the heart of mandatory minicamp season, there are still plenty of unhappy players out there. |
| Jeff Kerr decided to go through and make a list of some of the biggest names who are waiting for a new contract: |
| Micah Parsons (Cowboys). "Parsons is heading into the final year of his rookie contract, playing under the fifth-year option worth $24 million. The Cowboys typically wait until the last minute to get deals done -- as they have with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb -- so it shouldn't be a surprise the front office drags this out with Parsons."Trey Hendrickson (Bengals). "The star pass rusher has one year and a base salary of $15.8 million remaining on his four-year, $60 million contract. ... How much Hendrickson is worth makes this situation difficult. He's the first player since JJ Watt in 2014-2015 to have 17+ sacks in back-to-back seasons and trails only TJ Watt (73.5) and Myles Garrett (72.0) for the most sacks over the last five seasons (Hendrickson has 70.5). Hendrickson is a top-five pass rusher, and Nick Bosa is the fourth-highest paid edge rusher in the league at $34 million."T.J. Watt (Steelers). "Watt is the seventh-highest paid edge rusher in football with an average annual salary at $28 million -- and he's still underpaid. The 31-year-old Watt has a base salary of $21 million entering his final year of his four-year, $112 million extension he signed in 2021 -- so an extension is in order." |
| The three teams listed above should be in a race to get a deal done, because the player who signs first will likely raise the market for the other two. For instance, if Parsons signs a deal worth $41 million per year, Hendrickson might not look to match that, but if Parsons sets a new benchmark, that could get Hendrickson to raise his asking price. |
| Kerr listed his disgruntled players, and you can see who the unhappiest players are here. |
| Terry McLaurin also made the list, and things are getting pretty serious there, because he apparently just left voluntary workouts due to being unhappy with his contract. |
| 5. One burning question for every team in the NFC East |
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| With all the roster changes that have happened around the league this offseason, there are plenty of questions that each team will need to answer before we know if they'll actually be good in 2025. |
| With that in mind, we've started the process of going through each division to look at the biggest question for each team heading into the upcoming season. Today, we're going to cover the NFC East. |
| Here's one burning question that Jeff Kerr has come up with for each team. |
| Cowboys: Is Brian Schottenheimer the right head coach in Dallas? "The hire certainly wasn't a sexy one, but those are the ones that usually pay off. The Cowboys are banking on the culture built by Schottenheimer to get them deep into the playoffs, as he knows the ins and outs of the organization after having been in a Dallas for a few seasons."Eagles: Are they good enough to repeat as Super Bowl champs? "The safe answer to this question as of June 2025 would be to be determined, but the honest answer is no. The Eagles don't have enough at pass rusher after the offseason losses of Josh Sweat and Milton Williams, and safety is a concern after trading away C.J. Gardner-Johnson."Giants: Who will be the Giants' starting QB? "Russell Wilson is the frontrunner to start, but there is expected to be a competition for the job. Jaxson Dart isn't expected to be the Week 1 starter, which is good for his development as the future franchise quarterback. Watching Wilson and Jameis Winston battle for the job will be one of the storylines of training camp." Commanders: Will Jayden Daniels have a sophomore slump? "Daniels carried the Commanders last season, and he'll be asked to do it again. The Commanders have a better roster, but defenses have an entire offseason to study Daniels. Watching Daniels adjust in year two will be one of the storylines in the NFL this season." |
| To read Kerr's full answer for each question, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Derek Carr explains why he left $30 million on the table |
| This is always a busy time in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that's happening, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Why Derek Carr passed up on $30 million in guaranteed pay. Derek Carr had $30 million in guaranteed money left on his contract when he retired, but he decided not to take it. According to Carr, he didn't think he would be able to play this year and he didn't want to sit on the bench and take New Orleans' money. "That part was tough because I didn't want to have surgery and just sit there and -- it sounds crazy, but -- just take the Saints money," Carr told Front Office Sports. Carr did get a nice going away gift because New Orleans let him keep $10 million in signing bonus money that he likely would have had to return, so he's only out $20 million. You can read more about Carr's decision to retire here. Rashod Bateman gets contract extension from Ravens. For the second year in a row, Bateman has landed an extension from the Ravens. The receiver has agreed to a three-year, $36.75 million deal that includes $20 million in guaranteed money, according to ESPN. This new deal comes just 13 months after he signed a two-year extension . The 2021 first-round pick finished second on the team last year in both receiving yards (756) and receiving touchdowns (nine). If the new extension is on top of his old extension, that means Bateman is now under contract through 2029. OTA takeaways from Wednesday. We have a new batch of OTA takeaways that comes out every day and here are the big stories from Wednesday: Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett have been getting the first-team reps with the Browns. In Tennessee, Calvin Ridley is a fan of Cam Ward, who apparently has a 'f--- it mentality.' You can check out our full batch of takeaways here. Derrick Henry could end up in an Adam Sandler film. The Ravens running back has a lot to play for this season. Henry's favorite actor is Adam Sandler and if the Ravens running back hits the 2,000-yard mark in 2025, he's likely going to get to make a cameo in a Sandler movie. How did an incentive like that even come up? You can read the details here . |
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