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| Tuesday, December 10, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| The Bengals and Cowboys might not be playoff contenders, but they still managed to give us a wild game on Monday night that included Homer Simpson throwing a touchdown pass to Bart. This is my way of telling you that I watched way more of "The Simpsons" alternate broadcast than I care to admit. |
| The Bengals' 27-20 win only happened because of a bizarre play on a deflected punt that took place midway through the fourth quarter. In today's newsletter, we'll be breaking down that play, plus handing out grades for the game. Oh, and since it's Tuesday, we'll also have Prisco's latest Power Rankings and we'll be ranking Super Bowl contenders. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Bengals top Cowboys: Grades and notes from Cincinnati's wild Monday night win |
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| The Bengals and Cowboys gave us a wild one on Monday night that wasn't decided until Joe Burrow hit Ja'Marr Chase for a 40-yard touchdown with just 61 seconds left to play to give Cincinnati a wild 27-20 win. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| BENGALS GRADE: B |
| Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase have been doing their best to carry this team all season and they finally got some help from the defense, which is a big reason why the Bengals were able to come away with the win. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter, the Bengals defense came alive, holding the Cowboys to just 31 yards. Geno Stone also came up with a big interception in the first half after the Cowboys had driven down to the Bengals' 12-yard line. And, of course, we can't forget about Burrow and Chase. The two offensive stars have put up huge numbers all season and that continued on Monday night with Burrow throwing for 369 yards and three touchdown while Chase finished with 14 catches for 177 yards, including a game-winning 40-yard score with just 61 seconds left to play. The Bengals also recovered a deflected punt to convert a fourth-and-27 on wild play that eventually set up Chase's score. For the first time all season, the ball bounced Cincinnati's way ... literally. |
| Bengals notes |
Ja'Marr Chase goes off. The Bengals receiver caught 14 passes for 177 yards and a touchdown, which marks the third time this year that he's finished a game with at least 10 catches and 150 yards. No other player in NFL history has even done that twice in one season, and Chase has now done it three times. For the year, Chase now ranks first in the NFL in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,319) and receiving touchdowns (15), and if he finishes the season as the leader in each category, he'd become just the fifth receiver since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to win the receiving triple crown (Cooper Kupp in 2021, Steve Smith in 2005, Sterling Sharpe in 1992 and Jerry Rice in 1990 are the others). Chase also tied the Monday night record for most receptions in a game. Joe Burrow is putting up huge numbers. The Bengals QB threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns in the win. There have been EIGHT instances this year where a QB has had at least 350 passing yards and three TD passes with one or fewer interceptions in a game and Burrow has as many of those (4) as every other QB in the NFL combined (4). Burrow also threw for at least 250 yards and three touchdowns for the fifth straight game, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history, trailing only Tom Brady, who did it six straight times in 2007. Chicks dig the long ball. Joe Burrow's 40-yard touchdown pass to Ja'Marr Chase marks the 17th time that the two have connected for a TD pass of 40 yards or more, which is the fourth most of any QB-WR duo in NFL history. They haven't even finished their fourth season together and they're just four away from the all-time record of 21, which is held by Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison.
Burrow might have just put the Bengals in a corner. During his postgame press conference, the Bengals QB hinted Tee Higgins could be returning to the team in 2025. Higgins, who was hit with the franchise tag this year, is currently slated to be a free agent. "I'm confident that I think we're gonna be able to do what it takes to bring Tee back." If the Bengals weren't planning to bring Higgins back, that puts them in a tough spot, because Burrow just made his preference publicly known and the team will be playing with fire if it defies Burrow's wishes. On the other hand, if the Bengals were planning to bring him back, then Burrow just broke some major news in his press conference. You can read more about Burrow's comments here. |
| COWBOYS GRADE: B- |
| The Cowboys were in a position to steal this game until they made a massive special teams error late in the fourth quarter. It was a bizarre play that will overshadow a somewhat impressive performance on both sides of the ball. Rico Dowdle had another impressive game with 131 yards on just 18 carries, and although Cooper Rush didn't put up big numbers, he did have a solid night when throwing to CeeDee Lamb, who finished with six catches for 93 yards and a TD. The defense held the Bengals in check for most of the second half until Ja'Marr Chase broke free for a 40-yard TD with just a minute left to play, but it's hard to pin that on the defense because they shouldn't have been on the field. The defense had forced a Bengals punt on fourth-and-27, but a special teams gaffe by Amani Oruwariye gave Cincinnati new life. This was a tough loss for a team that could have kept its faint wild-card playoff hopes alive with a win, but now, it feels like their season is over. |
| Cowboys notes |
| Cowboys' home nightmare continues. The Cowboys are now 5-8 on the season and a big reason for that is because they keep losing at home. With the loss, the Cowboys are now 1-6 at AT&T Stadium this year. The loss to the Bengals also marked the first time since 1988 that Dallas had lost to Cincinnati at home. Run Rico Run. In his first 10 games of the season, Rico Dowdle didn't hit the 100-yard mark a single time, but he's now hit it in consecutive games after going for 131 yards on just 18 carries against the Bengals. Dowdle's 7.2 yards per carry against Cincinnati was the highest by a Cowboys player since 2018. This performance comes just one week after he went for 112 yards against the Giants. Dowdle could have another big game in Week 15 and that's because he'll be facing a Panthers defense that's surrendering 170.1 yards per game on the ground, which ranks dead last in the NFL.Cowboys lose starting linebacker. Demarvion Overshown, who has been one of the team's few bright spots this season, suffered a very serious knee injury early in the fourth quarter that will end his season. You can read more about Overshown here. |
| Now, let's talk about that crazy play. The Bengals won this game after a bizarre play went their way late in the fourth quarter. On a fourth-and-27, the Cowboys tipped a Bengals punt, but despite the block, the ball still went bouncing past the line of scrimmage. Once it passes the line of scrimmage all normal rules apply for a punting play, which means if a Cowboys player touches it, then the Bengals can recover it, and that's exactly what happened. So the Bengals went from a fourth-and-27 to a first down. You can see the bizarre play here . Burrow hit Chase for the game-winning touchdown just three plays after the Bengals got the ball back. |
| Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Week 15 Power Rankings: Rams make big jump for second straight week |
| For the third straight week, we have the same teams in the top five of Prisco's Power Rankings, but there is a twist this week, because the teams aren't in the same order as they were last week. |
| With that in mind, let's check out Prisco's top five: |
| Lions (same as last week)Chiefs (Up one spot from last week)Eagles (Up one spot from last week)Vikings (Up one spot from last week)Bills (Down three spots from last week) |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Three weeks ago, Doug Pederson was on the hot seat and it looked like he might be fired, but now, not only does he still have a job, but he has the Jags winning games. Following their 10-6 win over the Titans, Prisco bumped the Jags up FIVE spots from 32nd to 27th. For the second straight week, the biggest jump in the NFC went to the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams moved up three spots last week, and this week, Prisco moved them up four spots from 17th to 13th following their shocking 44-42 win over the Bills. The biggest tumble this week went to the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray threw away any chance the Cardinals had of beating the Seahawk in Week 14 by throwing two interceptions. With the loss, the Cards dropped four spots from 13th to 17th.Finally, let's get the bottom of the Power Rankings. The Jaguars were in the bottom spot last week, but after beating the Titans, they've managed to climb out of the cellar. According to Prisco, the title of the worst team in the NFL now belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 15 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
| 3. Breech's Week 15 NFL picks: Lions hand Bills their second straight loss |
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| After going 11-2 in Week 14, I should retire from making picks and just end on a high note, but I'm not going to do that. There are more picks to be made, so let's get to three of my picks for Week 15: |
| L.A. Rams (7-6) at San Francisco (6-7): The Rams have been a streaky team this year, but if there's one thing you can almost always count on, it's Matthew Stafford getting hot in December. Since being traded to the Rams in 2021, Stafford has started 11 games in the month of December and he's gone 10-1 in those games and the only loss came in OVERTIME on the road against the Ravens last season. In those 11 games, Stafford has averaged 272.9 yards while throwing 24 touchdown passes compared to just six interceptions. I think that means I have to pick Stafford's team. PICK: Rams 27-24 over 49ers Buffalo (10-3) at Detroit (12-1): Heading into Week 15, the Bills have played four road games this year against teams that currently have a winning record and they've gone 1-3 in those games while surrendering 28 points per game. If you can't beat good teams on the road, then I can't pick you to beat a good team on the road. PICK: Lions 34-27 over BillsPittsburgh (10-3) at Philadelphia (11-2): The Eagles are 9-0 this season when Saquon Barkley rushes for at least 100 yards and even though he's going up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL, I'll say he hits the century mark and leads the Eagles to a win. Also, the Steelers haven't won in Philadelphia since 1965 and I can't pick against 59 years of history. PICK: Eagles 23-20 over Steelers |
| If you want to check out the rest of my picks for Week 15, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Ranking the top 10 Super Bowl contenders: Both L.A. teams make the cut |
| Heading into Week 15, there are 25 teams still mathematically alive to win the Super Bowl, but I think we can agree that not all of them should be viewed as legitimate contenders. For instance, I think we can safely say that the Carolina Panthers are not going to win the Super Bowl. |
| So who has the best chance to win it all? Cody Benjamin ranked the top 10 Super Bowl contenders and we're going to check out the bottom-three teams in his top 10. |
| 8. Steelers (10-2). "For years, Mike Tomlin's squad has been scrappy but unspectacular, guaranteed to lurk in the wild-card picture but just as likely to bow out early due to a lack of big-play offense. They've since rejuvenated Russell Wilson, however, unlocking a downfield attack that benefits from the T.J. Watt-led defense, which feasts upon quarterbacks while protecting leads. If they control the ball, they can play with anyone." |
| 9. Chargers (8-5). "It's probably true that they're a year away from outfitting Justin Herbert with playoff-caliber wideouts, as they've mostly succeeded playing ball control. But Jim Harbaugh's definitely given them a more confident and physical approach. It can be seen on the other side of the ball, where Jesse Minter has maximized a unit in transition. They feel primed to play spoiler in the playoffs' early rounds." |
| 10. Rams (7-6). "The Rams are a scattershot team, suffering a few ugly losses and multiple losing streaks while battling injuries around Matthew Stafford. The reason they crack the list over technically superior clubs like the Washington Commanders? They've been there, done that, and when Stafford's weapons are upright and humming, Sean McVay's group is liable to get in a shootout with just about anyone." |
| Remember, these are the bottom-three teams in Cody's top 10, If you want to know what the full list looks like, you'll have to check out his story here. |
| 5. NFL playoff picture heading into Week 15 |
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| With only four weeks left to play in the NFL season, now seems like a good time to break down the playoff picture, so that's exactly what we're going to do today. |
| Here's a look at the top-seven teams from each conference: |
AFC
1. Chiefs (Clinched AFC West): 12-1
2. Bills (Clinched AFC East): 10-3
3. Steelers (AFC North leader): 10-3
4. Texans (AFC South leader): 8-5
5. Ravens: 8-5
6. Chargers: 8-5
7. Broncos 8-5
First teams out: Colts (6-7), Dolphins (6-7) |
| When it comes to the AFC, there are two big games this week that will have huge playoff implications. The first one is Colts at Broncos. If Denver wins that, Indy's playoff hopes will be all but gone. However, if the Colts pull off the upset, that will open the door for Indy or Miami to steal a wild-card spot. Speaking of the Dolphins, they have a huge game against the Texans. At this point in the season, the Dolphins can't really afford any more losses, so they'll need to figure out a way to win if they want to have a realistic shot of making the playoffs. |
| One other game worth noting is Steelers at Eagles. If Pittsburgh loses and Baltimore beats the Giants on Sunday, that would set up a huge Week 16 showdown between the Ravens and Steelers in Baltimore. |
NFC
1. Lions (NFC North leader): 12-1
2. Eagles (NFC East leader): 11-2
3. Seahawks (NFC West leader): 8-5
4. Buccaneers (NFC South leader): 7-6
5. Vikings (11-2)
6. Packers (9-4)
7. Commanders (8-5)
First teams out: Rams (7-6), Falcons (6-7), Cardinals (6-7), 49ers (6-7) |
| Heading into Week 9, the Falcons were 6-3 and they had a two-game lead on the Buccaneers in the NFC South, but after just five weeks, they've officially choked that lead away with Tampa Bay now in first place. The Falcons could jump back into first place after this week as they'll have a much easier game. Atlanta will be facing the Raiders while the Buccaneers will be heading to Los Angeles to face the Chargers. |
| The battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC could also get spicy this week. The Lions will be playing the Bills and if Buffalo comes away with a win, not only will that give the Eagles a chance to move into a tie for the top seed, but the Vikings (who will be playing the Bears) could move into a tie atop the NFC North. Basically, this is a game the Lions can't really afford to lose. |
| The Seahawks will also be hosting the Packers in a game that will have major playoff implications in the NFC. If Seattle loses, the winner of the Rams-49ers game on Thursday night will be right back in the NFC West race. |
| If you want a full look at the playoff standings, we've got the right here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Former NFL starter comes out of retirement to sign with Chiefs |
| It was a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Chiefs add veteran corner Steven Nelson. Six months after announcing his retirement, Nelson is back in the NFL. The veteran corner signed with the Chiefs' practice squad on Monday in a move that gives Kansas City more depth in the secondary. Nelson has started in 115 games over his nine-year career, which actually began with the Chiefs in 2015 when they made him a third-round pick. Derek Carr is week-to-week. The Saints QB fractured his left hand in Week 14, but he might not be done for the season. Interim coach Darren Rizzi said Carr is week-to-week, and because of that, he won't be placed on IR. Carr is also in concussion protocol, so even if he returns this season at some point, it seems unlikely that he'll play this week against the Commanders. Jonathon Brooks done for the season. For the second time in 13 months, the Panthers rookie has torn the ACL in his right knee. The 2024 second-round pick had his NFL debut pushed back due to the original injury that he suffered while at Texas, and now, his season is over after he suffered the same injury again on Sunday. You can read more about Brooks here. Troy Aikman expects Mike McCarthy to be back with Cowboys. With McCarthy's status up in the air, at least one Cowboys legend expects the embattled coach to return for 2025. Before Monday's game between the Cowboys and Bengals, Aikman said he wouldn't be surprised if McCarthy is the coach next season. You can read his full comments here. Episode 2 of 'Hard Knocks' is tonight. The HBO show is covering the entire AFC North for the in-season version of 'Hard Knocks' and the second episode will be airing tonight at 9 p.m. ET on HBO. In the first episode, I thought Mike Tomlin came away as the big winner. It always interesting to get an inside look at an NFL team, especially during the season, which is a glimpse we rarely get. |
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