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Donegal Group Inc. (NASDAQ: DGICA) This property & casualty insurer is serving up a delicious margin expansion feast that's flying under the radar! The company dramatically improved its combined ratio to 91.6% from 102.4% by pruning unprofitable personal lines while expanding profitable commercial business. Q1 operating income surged 308% to $31.96M with margins jumping to 13% as management strategically non-renewed Maryland contracts and raised premiums 10%+. Trading at just 9.7x P/E after earnings growth compressed valuation from 70x, DGICA offers a 3.71% dividend yield versus the sector ETF's 1.8%. Strong balance sheet with $1.4B investments exceeding liabilities by $314.8M provides safety buffer while the company reinvests $130M from 3.5% yielding bonds into 5.5% yielding funds. (Current price: $20.00, Analyst expectation: $22)

Political Risk Hedging Strategy: The Trump-Musk feud over spending creates unprecedented uncertainty for Tesla and the DOGE program implications. Recipe: Diversify away from single-personality-dependent plays into broader market exposure. Focus on companies with bipartisan appeal and reduced regulatory dependency for smoother political navigation.

Q3 Opening Volatility Play: After a stellar Q2 performance, markets are facing natural correction pressure combined with fresh political and trade catalysts. Recipe: Use any significant dips as accumulation opportunities for quality names that got caught in broad selling. Defensive sectors and dividend-paying stocks are particularly attractive during uncertainty periods.

Trade Deadline Positioning: July 9th tariff deadline approaching with Trump pursuing "mini deals" instead of comprehensive agreements. Recipe: Position defensively in domestic-focused companies while monitoring sector-specific trade developments. Industrial and tech exporters remain vulnerable to tariff implementation threats.

Insurance Margin Expansion Opportunity: Donegal Group exemplifies the P&C sector trend of pruning low-margin business for profitability focus. Recipe: Consider exposure to regional insurers executing similar strategies with strong balance sheets and dividend sustainability. Rising interest rates are enhancing investment income for insurance portfolios.

Rate Cut Anticipation Trade: 10-year yields hitting 2-month lows as Fed policy expectations shift more dovish amid political uncertainty. Recipe: Position in rate-sensitive sectors like REITs, utilities, and dividend aristocrats that benefit from lower borrowing costs and higher valuations during easing cycles.

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What if the most competitive quote in the market came from a venue you’re not even required to trade on? That’s exactly what’s riling Wall Street about IntelligentCross.

Now the largest dark pool in the U.S., IntelligentCross handled nearly 3% of all trades in February—surpassing UBS—and has ambitions far beyond anonymity. It wants the SEC to give its ASPEN engine “protected quote” status. That would force brokers to route trades there if ASPEN offers the best price. The catch? ASPEN matches trades with a delay—up to 900 microseconds—and lets traders cancel orders during that time.

Advantage or innovation? Citadel, Nasdaq, and others say it's regulatory arbitrage. IntelligentCross calls it fair competition and claims it's already executing better-priced trades that markets are ignoring.

Behind the scenes, the SEC has been sitting on this hot potato for nearly two years. With $1.95 trillion in trades reportedly executed at worse prices than ASPEN’s since, is this the future of fairer pricing, or a backdoor loophole in need of a crackdown?

Exchanges call foul. Quant giants like XTX cheer. One thing’s clear: the line between dark pool and exchange is blurring—and everyone has skin in the game.

ISM Manufacturing Focus:

Limited Q3 Opening Menu:

Apple Antitrust Setback: A federal judge denied a motion to dismiss a smartphone monopoly lawsuit alleging restriction of third-party developers. The case proceeds with claims that Apple dominates the market through anti-competitive practices, preventing user platform switching.

EU Tariff Negotiation Strategy: European Commission reportedly willing to accept 10% universal US tariff but seeks exemptions for pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and aircraft. Pushing for lower rates on 25% auto tariffs and 50% steel/aluminum levies.

Tesla Nordic Collapse Continues: Sweden sales plunged 64.4% in June, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline, while Denmark fell 61.6%. Competitive pressure and Musk's popularity decline are undermining European market share across the Nordic region.

Copper Supply Squeeze: Metal hits three-month high on tight supply and trade deal optimism. LME inventory drawdown and record US imports ahead of potential tariffs create a backwardation market structure, indicating shortage conditions.

Euro Zone Manufacturing Stabilization: PMI edged up to 49.5 in June from 49.4 as new orders stopped falling for the first time in three years. Tentative factory sector recovery signs are emerging despite remaining below the 50 growth threshold.

JDE Peet's Strategy Overhaul: Coffee giant unveils "Reignite the Amazing" brand-led strategy targeting €500M productivity savings with focus on Peet's, L'OR, and ten iconic brands led by Jacobs under new CEO leadership.

Lyten Takes Northvolt Poland Factory: Silicon Valley startup acquiring Europe's largest energy storage systems facility after Swedish battery maker's bankruptcy. Plans immediate operations restart to fulfill existing and new customer orders.

Trump Tax Bill Analysis: Yale Budget Lab study shows bottom 20% lose an average $560 annually, while top 20% gain $6,055 under Senate version. Uneven distribution stems from Medicaid cuts versus income tax reductions for the wealthy.

Over the last few weeks, roughly 30 million ounces of gold have been quietly moved from London vaults to the US. This isn't normal market activity - it's a signal.

As a 20-year veteran gold analyst, I've never seen a transfer this size. More importantly, I know why it's happening.

My sources tell me this massive gold movement is tied to an upcoming shift in the global monetary system. The kind that happens once every 50-100 years.

Smart money is already positioning. Central Banks are buying gold at the fastest pace on record.

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Best,

Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT

Chief Analyst and Founder, Golden Portfolio

Tesla (TSLA ⬇️ 4.9%): EV giant gets served multiple cold dishes as Musk calls Trump's spending bill "utterly insane and destructive" while President suggests DOGE should investigate Tesla's subsidies. Nordic sales continue a catastrophic decline, with Sweden down 64.4% and Denmark falling 61.6% in June. A political and operational perfect storm is brewing. Analyst bite: Regulatory relationships crucial for EV subsidies and future approvals.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD ⬆️ 3% premarket): Trading platform extends record-breaking feast after yesterday's 13% surge to $93.63 all-time high. New crypto offerings, including perpetual futures, tokenized stocks for EU users, and staking rewards driving 151% year-to-date gains. Analyst bite: Crypto expansion strategy attracting retail trading enthusiasm.

Coinbase (COIN ⬇️ 1.3% premarket): Crypto exchange pulls back despite being Q2's best S&P 500 performer with a 106% quarterly gain. April-June surge benefited from a relaxed regulatory environment under the Trump administration. Analyst bite: Profit-taking is natural after a massive quarterly performance.

Wolfspeed (WOLF ⬆️ 86%): Chip component maker absolutely explodes after filing prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy for debt restructuring. Expects emergence from protection by Q3 end, creating a massive short squeeze opportunity. Analyst bite: Bankruptcy filing removes debt overhang concerns.

Meta Platforms (META ⬆️ 0.2% premarket): Social media giant extends Monday's record close of $738.09 as Zuckerberg announces new "Superintelligence" division housing fundamental AI research, Llama models, and product development teams. Analyst bite: AI organizational restructuring signals increased development focus.

UnitedHealth (⬇️ 0.6% premarket): Healthcare giant remains under pressure as Q2's worst S&P 500 performer (-41%) following guidance withdrawal, CEO resignation, and higher medical expenditures plaguing operations throughout the quarter. Analyst bite: Operational challenges requiring a comprehensive management overhaul.

Progress Software (⬇️ 6.5%): Software company disappoints despite beating Q2 earnings estimates and raising fiscal year forecasts. The Nuclia acquisition announcement fails to offset investor profit-taking concerns. Analyst bite: Execution strength overshadowed by valuation concerns.

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🥡 Home Depot Expands Building Supply Business: The retail giant is acquiring specialty building products distributor GMS for $5.5 billion (including debt), marking its second major acquisition in a year as it intensifies its focus on professional builders—What does this mean for the future of the construction supply market?

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