Welcome to growth investing

Good Morning Voornaam,

Get ready for that luxury feeling with Trive South Africa. The team has taken a look at the world's leading luxury brands, with a particularly interesting section showing the performance of the CAC40 Index in France. For a solid overview of life at the very top of the consumer goods pile, read this excellent article>>>

As you should know by now, Monday means a new episode of Ghost Wrap. Brought to you by Mazars, this podcast is designed for busy people. It's really hard to stay on top of SENS updates, so I make it easier for you by picking the most interesting stories of the week and packaging an 8 - 9 minute podcast with a summary of the big news and my opinions on each story. The latest episode covers Cl icks, Nu-World, Purple, Cashbuild, Oceana, Raubex, the mining production updates (BHP, Glencore, Merafe, Sasol and Royal Bafokeng Platinum) and Standard Bank. Get it all in this show>>>

Welcome to growth investing

A lot of people are going to learn the hard way through this process that the market is an emotional place. When investors fall in love with something, it's time to get worried. I have huge respect for the EasyEquities business and it's no secret that they are an importa nt partner to Ghost Mail. This has never (and will never) impede my independence in commenting on the Purple Group share price, which I've said many times was simply too expensive. To the full credit of the Purple management team, they've always gone out of their way to engage with me on the growth story and my questions on how they plan to deliver it.

A trading statement on Friday is finally going to test whether the recent cohort of retail investors has learnt anything about the markets. The correct time to buy a stock is not when there is huge hype around it. If you believe strongly in the story, the right time is when nobody else around you believes in it anymore. At that stage, the smart money goes long (provided the story stacks up) and the average investor gives up.

If you want to watch share price action today, I would suggest keeping an eye on Purple. With the announcement having come out after the close o n Friday, investors had the entire weekend to digest it.

It was a busy day on Friday, with important updates also coming through from the likes of Cashbuild, Oceana and Standard Bank. We also saw a flurry of production updates in the mining and resources sector, including BHP, Glencore, Merafe, Royal Bafokeng and Sasol. Also look out for news from Choppies and Coronation. You can find all this news in Ghost Bites at this link>>>

We just can't break R18.00

What will it take for the rand to break below R18.00 to the dollar? Concerns over local infrastructure, load shedding and our Russian ties are causing international investors to think twice about flooding into our already high-yielding bonds.

TreasuryONE notes that local economists are expecting two 25bps hikes this year to accommodate inflation and the Fed hiking cycle.

From my perspective, if you own a property or you are thinking of buying one, you need to be careful in this environment. There are obviously no guarantees of these hikes but goodness knows that hope isn't a strategy - rather put plans in place now.

For assistance with forex services, reach out to the team at TreasuryONE.

Buybacks, banks and big spenders

In the latest episode of Magic Markets, we found ourselves with a "guestless" show - a perfect opportunity to talk about some of our learnings from our research in Magic Markets Premium.

Topics discussed on the show included the poor use of share buybacks by US companies, the divergence in performance between national and regional banks in the US, the importance of optionality in a business model, the way to use pure-play or cyclical companies in a portfolio and the recent popularity of the luxury sector. Enjoy it here>>>

Finally, if you're interested in learning more about investment holding company Astoria, you should watch the reco rding of Unlock the Stock here>>>

Have a great Monday!

Ghost Bites (BHP | Cashbuild | Choppies | Coronation | Glencore | Merafe | Oceana | Purple | Royal Bafokeng | Sasol | Standard Bank)

On a day full of mining production updates, we also saw news from sectors as diverse as fishing, financial services and retail.

With luxury goods firmly in vogue, Trive South Africa takes a look at the fundamental and technical drivers of the world's most important luxury goods companies.

Who's who in the bling industry?
Unlock the Stock: Astoria

Astoria joined Unlock the Stock for the first time, giving investors insight into the portfolio that offers diverse exposure to a range of sectors.

 

This week's Ghost Wrap lays bare the impact of load shedding and inflation on a number of businesses, both good and bad. Look out for major retail, mining and financial services news in this episode.

 

In this episode, Mohammed Nalla and I discussed a range of topics relevant to investors. These included buybacks, optionality in a business model, the power of pure-play stocks and more.

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.



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