Projections March 2021 (CEP 2021), figures

After the decrease in GDP that was caused by the second wave of the coronavirus, economic recovery is gradually gaining momentum in the second quarter. Growth is projected to accelerate in the second half of the year, increasing GDP by 2.2% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. By the end of 2021, it will be above the level of late 2019 again. These projections are based on the government's current policy intentions according to which financial support measures will expire at the end of June. Consumption will increase strongly once shops and restaurants fully reopen and consumer fears of becoming infected diminish as more people are vaccinated. The sharp increase in savings during the coronavirus-induced recession will allow for a strong growth in consumption. Investments will show a positive response to the increase in sales and the more favourable revenue expectations, supported by low financing costs. However, investment g rowth will be dampened by additional bankruptcies in certain sectors after termination of the support policy and as a result of the damage to the balance sheet suffered by companies during the virus outbreak.