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| Monday, July 1, 2024 |
| It's Jets Day! It's also Patriots day! |
| In order to fit 32 team-by-team breakdowns in and not go seven days a week and also finish this endeavor by the end of the first week in August, I decided to double up today and on Friday. Today, the Patriots and Jets will have to share space. I'm sure Jets and Pats fans will love that. I'm actually feeling relatively optimistic for both teams, so maybe this won't be painful! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my baseline team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Jets |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (15th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 27.1 (11th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 18.9 (14th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| We're officially back on track with the Nathaniel Hackett-Aaron Rodgers train.Keith Carter is the new offensive line/run game coach. More on Carter below: |
| "Continually in his time at Tennessee, even with Derrick Henry out, they were still able to spit out top 10 run games, been very effective in the red zone, running the football, getting the ball past the goal line, and all that good stuff. Hard-nosed, hard-charging football coach that we're really excited to get." – Head Coach Robert Saleh. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Aaron Rodgers wasn't the only significant loss this offense suffered in 2023. Eleven different players logged substantial playing time along the offensive line. It was a mess. Improving the offensive line has been New York's number one priority during the 2024 offseason. |
| Acquired two quality tackles -- Tyron Smith (83.7 PFF grade) and Morgan Moses (80.4 PFF grade) -- via free agency/tradeDrafted tackle Olu Fashanu 11th overall |
| What can we reasonably expect from Rodgers? |
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| Dating back to 1970, there have been only six quarterbacks to record at least three finishes of 250+ Fantasy points in an age-35-or-older season: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, John Elway, and Ben Roethlisberger each have three such instances on their track record. Drew Brees accomplished it five times, while Tom Brady recorded nine seasons. |
| We last saw Rodgers healthy and playing 17 games in 2022, his final season with the Green Bay Packers. That was his age-38 season following a massive 333-point Fantasy total as a 37-year-old. At age 38, Rodgers failed to reach the 250-point mark, a concerning signal compared to the late-career outputs for the above group. |
| Manning, Elway, and Roethlisberger also suffered a significant post-age-37 Fantasy point drop-off. Those quarterbacks only continued to decline from that point on. Elway didn't return for an age-39 season after posting only 198 Fantasy points as a 38-year-old. Manning managed only 9.9 Fantasy points per game in six-point per passing touchdown leagues over 10 games as a starter in his age-39 season. That is wild. He averaged 19.5 the season prior. |
| At the stage of career we find Rodgers in, it has been unprecedented for a QB to be effective, even among elite passers who remained productive past the age of 35. The two exceptions are Brees and Brady. |
| Brees saw a dip in production after his massive age-38 season and then rebounded with one more huge season (305 points as a 40-year-old). In his final season (age 41), Brees produced 223 points. Brady remained highly productive until he retired after scoring 281 points in his age-41 season. My initial projections expected Rodgers to score 295 points over a 16 game season, so I knew that I had to provide more of a nerf to his efficiency projection. The thing is, Rodgers always accounts for a massive share of his team's touchdown total. |
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| The league average rate is 59%. A Rodgers-led offense has literally never been below that in a season he was healthy for. |
| I have the Jets projected to score 59% of total team touchdowns via passing TDs in 2024. That would tie a career-low that Rodgers posted in 2019 and result in a base line projection of 27 passing scores. |
| What if Rodgers gives us a season more in line with his career averages? Could Rodgers be an outlier like Brady and Brees? Vegas lookahead lines have the Jets ranked 14th in implied points scored on the year. There's upside for a high passing touchdown total. For reference, raising New York's projected 59% rate to the career-rate of 73% for Rodgers-led offenses would result in a projection of 33 passing touchdowns for the Jets. |
| The most-likely outcome is that the Jets lean on the ground game as Rodgers makes his way back from a torn Achilles tendon. New York boasts quite possibly the best defense in the game right now -- only the Browns ranked higher in defensive expected points added (EPA) per play in 2023. |
| On top of that, the Jets might have the most-talented RB in the NFL and have drafted three running backs in the past two drafts. If opponents struggle to put points on the board, the Jets absolutely might lean on the ground game in a way that we've never seen from a Rodgers-led offense. |
| Hall is possibly the best RB in the NFL |
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| The Jets have some good stat sources! |
| Number one -- ahead of Christian McCaffrey -- in yards per route run at the running back position since entering the NFL, Breece Hall offers unique upside as a receiving weapon. He also leads all running backs in rushing yardage created (on a per-rush basis) after meeting initial defensive contact. |
| Even in his first year of recovery following major knee surgery, Hall ranked third in yards after contact per rush and 10th in avoided tackle rate among backs with 200+ rushes. |
| The fact that the Jets keep hammering the RB position in the draft is very interesting to me. Israel Abanikanda was added in Round 4 of the 2023 draft, and New York used Round 4 and Round 5 picks to add Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis to the RB room in 2024. This may signal a desire to lean on the ground game in 2024, and it provided the easiest solution to nerfing my original passing projections for the Jets that felt too heavily influenced by the data I have on Rodgers from earlier in his career. |
| When playing with a lead in 2023, the Jets ran the ball 56% of the time. Only the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers had higher run rates when leading. We saw the Jets pile an unfathomable 37 rush attempts on Hall's plate in a 17-3 win over New England in Week 18. Ideally, we'll never see anything like that again. Instead, we might see Hall and one other back -- probably Allen if early offseason reporting is trustworthy -- combine to handle a larger workload than we've ever seen from a Rodgers-led backfield. |
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| Just how high can Wilson fly? |
| The research that I did on Wilson's fit with Rodgers was extremely encouraging. I have less optimism regarding Rodgers' output than I did a year ago, but the stylistic fit remains intact. I expect Wilson to be peppered with targets in a role that is quite similar to what we saw from Davante Adams with Rodgers at QB. |
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| Wilson ranked fifth in the Fantasy Points Data Suite's first-read target share in 2023, and yet again, his base line target per route run rate was not very high. I had an interesting conversation with Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points about this. |
| I provided Ryan with a list of receivers who had the highest discrepancy between first-read target rates and target per route run rates in 2023 and suggested that in a lot of the cases, play-callers wanted the offensive design to funnel through a player more than the QB was able to effectively facilitate. You can find that list below. |
| I also suspect that scrambling QBs affect the discrepancy some, as a receiver never draws a target on any dropback that results in a scramble. That would help explain Moore's absurd rate, as well as the presence of Zay Flowers, Stefon Diggs, and the Philly receivers. |
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| My theory could be true, especially as it pertains to the true outliers at the top of this list who were quarterbacked by Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle. Ryan's response made a lot of sense, too, though! |
| "Consider - pretty much the whole first list you sent plays primarily on the outside, often at the X position. The first read is frequently gonna be to the alpha type receiver, but they will also normally see the toughest coverage from the defense. So it makes sense they see relatively more first-read targets compared to TPRR, because it's gonna be rarer for them to be the second read/also harder for them to get open on any given play, including if they are the second read" |
| The reason I was curious about Wilson's placement on this list is that there really isn't much room to grow from a first-read target standpoint. He could -- and very well might -- lead the NFL in first-read rate in 2024. Davante Adams led the NFL with a 38% first-read target share as Rodgers' top WR in 2021. Even if Wilson were to post that type of first-read target rate, as long as the discrepancy between his first-read rate and actual target share remains near the top of the league, as it has been in each of his two NFL seasons, then I'm not sure if Wilson drafters actually will have access to the Adams-like results that are hypothetically available to Wilson given the relative lack of target competition. We need to see him actually hog targets. |
| There are reasons for optimism relating to the points made by both Ryan and myself as to why Wilson might buck the trend in Year 3. The answer to my point is obvious. The previous Jets quarterbacks have hardly been capable of facilitating functional offense, and Rodgers provides as stark of a contrast as possible when it comes to keeping his top target fed. To Ryan's point, Wilson has been asked to line up at the "X" and win, as the Jets haven't had adequate options to fill that position otherwise. Things will be different if Mike Williams is healthy enough to fill a consistent role as the team's "X" receiver. Big Mike's presence could free Wilson up to roam. |
| I think there's untapped potential for Wilson to push into elite territory when it comes to target hogging. The other aspect of his upside is even more clear. Wilson could absolutely pace the NFL in receiving touchdowns in 2024. Since entering the NFL, Wilson's red zone target share is 32%. Only DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown have a higher rate during that time. |
| Even with dysfunctional QB play, Wilson has been able to demand red zone targets at an elite rate. That's no surprise, considering that Wilson has already established himself as one of the best man coverage separators and man coverage rates almost double when comparing splits in the red zone to out of the red zone. |
| The last time we saw Rodgers healthy, he led the NFL with a 79% first-read target rate in the red zone. We could realistically see Wilson lead the NFL in red zone target rate for an offense that may finish top-five in total red zone targets produced. |
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| Will any ancillary Jets pieces matter? |
| I love my guy Big Mike, but Williams does not look good in projections as he enters his age-30 season recovering from an ACL injury. For what it's worth, he's actually been one of the best performers against man coverage of any receiver recently, so maybe he has more juice than people realize and will come back strong in 2024. I'm expecting this Rodgers-led offense to be centered around Wilson and Hall in the passing game. I wouldn't be surprised if Williams splits reps with Allen Lazard, to be honest. |
| Offenses with Rodgers at QB have used three-receiver sets 66% of the time, and that rate has dropped to 60% with Nathaniel Hackett calling plays. If Williams and Lazard are splitting reps, it's tough to project either `or rookie Malachi Corley to draw enough volume to be relevant for Fantasy purposes outside of an outcome where Rodgers plays better than his age would indicate is realistic and produces an outlier receiving touchdown total for these pass-catchers. |
| For season-long leagues, I have Hall ranked fifth overall. He offers multiple paths to upside if this offense exceeds expectations, and his receiving role provides him with one of the safest projections at the RB position. Hall finished as the RB2 in PPR leagues last year even with just five touchdowns on the ground and four through the air. He's a safe pick and could push for Christian McCaffrey-type production if the touchdowns increase in a meaningful way. |
| Wilson sits at ninth overall in my season-long rankings. I prefer Hall, Bijan Robinson, and A.J. Brown to Wilson who falls into the same tier as Puka Nacua and Justin Jefferson when I'm selecting towards the back-end of Round 1. The floor to his ranges of outcomes is lower than the rest of that group, as we have yet to see Wilson "do it' at a superstar level through two seasons, but he brings the clearest combination of alpha target hog ability and touchdown upside. Jefferson can match (and likely exceed) Wilson from a target-earning standpoint, but his offense feels significantly less likely to produce 30+ passing touchdowns. Nacua and Brown both offer similar scoring upside, but it would take an injury to a teammate for either to approach the type of 30% target per route run rate territory that Wilson could tap into. That's Davante Adams stuff, it's a role that really is only available to a handful of players each year. |
| A new era has begun in New England |
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| New England Patriots |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (32nd) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 19.3 (30th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 18.1 (18th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Jerod Mayo takes over as the chosen one. A former linebacker with little coaching experience, the 38-year-old Mayo will presumably leave the offense entirely in the hands of:New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt New senior offensive consultant Bob McAdoo |
| The last time that we saw McAdoo working for an NFL team was 2022, he was the offensive coordinator for a forgettable Carolina Panthers team. McAdoo's Panthers were able to produce a top-10 rushing offense even with Christian McCaffrey only playing in six games that season. |
| I'm worried that this Patriots offense is going to feel archaic amid a quickly evolving league that places an emphasis on agility. Maybe New England will be able to line up and just bully opponents with the run game. That seems to be the direction that we're headed with this team. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| 2022 Round 1 guard Cole Strange is expected to miss significant time |
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| Starting left tackle Trent Brown left in free agency Right tackle Caeden Wallace was selected in Round 3Guard Layden Robinson was selected in Round 4 |
| Robinson might have to start as a rookie with Strange set to miss the first month-plus of football. I'm not sure that he's ready. Perhaps more concerning is the left tackle vacancy. Maybe Wallace is able to switch to left tackle as a rookie, that feels like a huge ask. Currently, Chukwuma Okorafor appears to be the presumed starter at LT after an underwhelming tenure with the Pittsburgh Steelers. In six seasons with Pittsburgh, Okorafor's highest PFF grade was 62.2. This may be one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. |
| Vegas has no faith in this team |
| New England has a lot of individual pieces that I feel optimistic for, but we have to address the elephant in the room. The Patriots tie the Carolina Panthers for last with a Vegas-implied win total of 4.5 games. Vegas lookahead lines project the Patriots to finish with the league's lowest points scored total in Mayo's inaugural head coaching season. |
| Nothing about new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt's history leads me to believe that the Patriots offense is going to play at a fast pace. I have Especially if rookie Drake Maye takes over at QB, it feels much more likely that the Pats will employ a slow-paced and run-heavy offense in an attempt to limit possessions. The strength of this team is clearly its defense. |
| In terms of EPA per play, the Patriots ranked fourth against the run, 10th against the pass, and fifth overall even while missing several key players in 2023. This looks like a top-five defense with the potential to be the best unit in the NFL if healthy for 2024. Is that going to be enough to keep the Patriots competitive? Vegas sure doesn't seem to think so. |
| What might Alex Van Pelt mean for this offense? |
| Van Pelt was the primary play-caller for a 2009 Buffalo Bills team that ranked 30th in offensive yards and 28th in points scored. Since then, we've only ever seen him act as an offensive coordinator attached to Kevin Stefanski who typically works as primary play-caller. So, it's tough to know what to expect from Van Pelt, but I will say, everything that I've found looks discouraging. |
| In Van Pelt's five years as an OC, his teams have a combined 46 passing touchdowns and 51 interceptions. Wild stuff. His offenses have felt static and predictable. Only the Titans have a higher first down run rate than the Browns during Van Pelt's tenure. Cleveland ranked 26th in pre-snap motion in 2023, and the Browns have consistently lagged behind the NFL average in play action usage as well. |
| Play action and pre-snap motion are pass game efficiency boosters, but nothing from Van Pelt's resume suggests that either will be an impactful part of New England's offense. |
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| Van Pelt and McAdoo may help New England's rushing game. Specifically, the potential scheme changes that may be implemented in 2024 seem to fit Rhamondre Stevenson's skill set perfectly. |
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| A boost in rushing efficiency would be a welcome development. As a team, the Pats ranked 25th in rushing EPA per attempt in 2023. Across his first two seasons, Stevenson gained 10+ rushing yards on 15% and 13.8% of his attempts, respectively. In Year 3, that rate dropped to 6.4%. Among 35 running backs with 150+ attempts, only Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, and A.J. Dillon had lower rates. It was a surprise to see Stevenson given a contract extension this summer. |
| Clearly, the Patriots believe Stevenson can turn things around. Even with last year's abysmal showing, Stevenson still boasts an 84th percentile yards after contact per rush rate among 46 running backs with 300+ rush attempts since he entered the NFL in 2021. The problem has been creating yards before contact. New England ranked 22nd in yards before contact on RB attempts in 2023. The Browns were 21st. I'm not all that confident that Van Pelt is actually going to improve things in a significant way for this run game. |
| Maybe the rushing efficiency improves. It honestly doesn't really matter very much, for Fantasy purposes. We've gotten a bit lost in the weeds here, and that's because I really like Stevenson as a player and don't enjoy facing the cold reality. Things don't look so good when I project Stevenson's 2024 Fantasy output. |
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| Thorman presents a sobering reality check. I want Drake Maye to succeed. If you haven't seen 'Drake Maye scouts Drake Maye' hosted by Josh Norris and Colt McCoy of Underdog Fantasy and want to learn more about Maye, it is absolutely worth a watch. I want Stevenson to succeed. It would be awesome if Maye and Mondre power ran all over teams and nobody could score on New England's defense. The more likely outcome is clearly depicted by a 4.5-game win total. |
| What type of Fantasy upside is available to Maye as a rusher? |
| Among Round 1-2 rookie QBs drafted between 2017-24, only Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields scrambled on a higher percentage of dropbacks than Drake Maye during his collegiate career. |
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| Maye's tendency to extend plays and create yardage with his legs is very exciting for Fantasy purposes. Every quarterback listed averaged at least six rushing attempts per start as a rookie, except for Kyler Murray who averaged 5.8. Dating back to 1970, there have been 912 instances of a QB starting at least eight games and averaging at least six rushes per game in a season. That group averaged 19.05 Fantasy points, which would have ranked fifth in QB scoring in 2023. This type of rushing is a cheat code for Fantasy. |
| You'll notice that several of the names on that list barely played as rookies, which is within the realm of possibilities for Maye. Jacoby Brissett played very well in 2023. I'm projecting Maye for 10 games, but with the Pats not hitting the bye week until Week 14, we might not see him take over until late in the season. |
| One last note on Maye -- his pressure to sack rate was a bit problematic in college. I explained why that's important here. |
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| Will any pass-catcher matter for Fantasy? |
| Probably not, but maybe! My guess as to the player who might be the most-likely to "matter" is Hunter Henry as a cheap late-round TE who could be surprisingly serviceable. Does that get you excited? |
| There's a lot of ambiguity when it comes to New England's target distribution. Even though the projected receiving totals are among the lowest in the NFL, it's still possible that at least one of these pass-catchers fills a role that involves more Fantasy scoring than expected. Here are some ranges of outcomes to consider for these pass-catchers: |
| Ja'Lynn Polk |
| Polk could establish himself as the top target and play in all formations. He's the player with the most Fantasy appeal, given his ability to play in and out of the slot. Polk never was a high target earner at the collegiate level, and so any expectations you place on him as a rookie come down solely to you projecting him to do things we haven't seen. |
| To be fair to Polk, he was sharing the field with Rome Odunze (10th overall pick) and Jalen McMillan (92nd overall pick) at Washington. No receiver in that room looks good when examined on a per-route basis, as the target distribution was spread evenly. He'll immediately face less target competition as a pro. |
| Demario Douglas |
| Douglas was dope as a rookie. He "Popped" up everywhere this offseason as I dug into advanced receiver data. He had a higher target per route run rate (23.9%) than Zay Flowers (20.7%) even though the two had a nearly identical average depth of target. Douglas also produced yards at a slightly more efficient per-route rate. |
| I'm not sure if Douglas will ever be anything more than a zone-buster, but he's good at it! If Polk isn't able to separate consistently as a rookie, we'll likely see what we saw last year -- Douglas operating as the clear top target in this offense. |
| Javon Baker |
| Baker posted elite an PFF grade and yard per route run rate in 2023 after transferring away from Alabama to dominate at UCF. I'm not so sure that the way he won at UCF is going to translate at the pros. Baker was true "X" receiver who primarily worked vertically and won over the top of defenses. Given the incredibly deep nature of his route tree, Baker never drew targets at a high rate. It's very difficult for this prototype of receiver to matter for Fantasy purposes. Even elite versions of this prototype like Tee Higgins struggle to draw the type of target volume needed to consistently produce Fantasy-relevant results. |
| There's a realistic chance that K.J. Osborn and Kendrick Bourne play a lot for as long as the Patriots are playing competitive football. Prototypically, those two profile more similarly to Polk and Douglas as "movers" who are probably best-suited working as the flanker or slot rather than as an offense's "X" receiver. Baker profiles as the highest upside field-stretching option as an "X." But if the Pats are content using Osborn or Bourne in that role, then it's clearly Polk and Douglas who offer a skill set that is most likely to earn playing time. I hear the moniker "quarterback's best friend" used frequently in reference to Polk. Everybody loves Pop Douglas. Those two can find holes in zones and provide a reliable and often open target. If this offense finds an "easy button" that works repeatedly, it's more likely to be one of those two than anyone else. I wish I felt more confident in Van Pelt's ability to scheme them open and use pre-snap motion to create advantageous opportunities as much as possible for this young offense. |
| The most-likely outcome involves none of these pass-catchers producing useful Fantasy results. Generally speaking, when examining teams with an implied win total of just 4.5 games, whatever follows the phrase "the most-likely outcome" involves something sad. There are exciting pieces in this offense! Maybe it will all come together and be fun. Maye and Henry are the Patriots who I have invested in the most. I believe both are underpriced, particularly in Dynasty and any Superflex or TE premium scoring formats. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July! Tuesday's team is the Miami Dolphins! |
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