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| Friday, April 2, 2021 |
| On Thursday's episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast, Heath Cummings and I put our projections up against each other. Not to compete, mind you -- we won't know who is more accurate for eight months or so, obviously. No, we put them up to each other to see where we agree and where we disagree. |
| It's an interesting process to go through, because you have to build in a lot of your own assumptions while building projections. You do your research, you read about others' expectations and all that, but ultimately there are going to be judgment calls that you have to make. One interesting one where Heath and I don't agree: The Falcons passing game. |
| The Falcons have been, if not the most, certainly one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL over the past few years, and it wasn't just because of offensive philosophy. They've had a bad defense more often than not, and haven't had a reliable running game since at least 2018, so they were often forced to throw. Now, however, they have a head coach who has been the most run-heavy play caller in the league in his time as an offensive coordinator in former Titans OC Arthur Smith. |
| So what's going to give? Me, I'm pretty skeptical the Falcons defense and running game will be good enough to keep them from having to throw the ball a ton. I'm projecting a decline in their pass total from the past few seasons, but I still have them over 600 total attempts. Heath, on the other hand, has them losing more than 100 attempts from 2020, and actually has them ranked just 24th in pass attempts in the NFL. |
| As a result, I've got Matt Ryan 13th at quarterback, while Heath has him 21st; similarly, I have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley ranked as top-10 options, while Heath has Ridley 14th and Jones even lower, around 20th overall. Who will be right? It's just unknowable at this point, but it will play a significant role in how these high-profile Fantasy stars fare in 2021. |
| I could definitely see Heath's view coming to fruition, of course. But, from my perspective, I don't think Smith ran the ball as much as he did in Tennessee because he thinks that's the ideal way to run any NFL offense; I think he did it because that was the ideal way to run that Titans offense, with Derrick Henry such a singular player. The Falcons have Mike Davis as their lead running back, so I'm assuming Smith is smart enough to recognize that he can't have a similar philosophy. |
| The good news is, we'll know more as the season gets closer. Smith will drop some hints, and maybe further roster moves will tell us even more. I would bet before we get to the start of the season that gap in the pass attempts projections for Heath and myself will shrink. |
| You should check out Thursday's episode for more of our discussion on projections: |
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| Even if you don't try to come up with your own, there's a lot to be gleaned from the discussion -- about the assumptions you have to make about any offense, any coach and any player. One thing that I always find especially interesting is the gap between where running backs who don't catch passes typically wind up in projected rankings vs. rankings that aren't based on projections. Heath and I both have Jonathan Taylor projected to finish 14th at running back, but he'll definitely be a top-10 back, and may even be top six in drafts. Bridging that gap -- or siding with one pole or the other -- can help you make better sense of the player pool this season. |
| In the rest of today's newsletter, I'm answering some of the questions you all have sent in over the past week looking ahead to 2021. If you want to get your questions answered next week, email me at [email protected] to get included. Here's what we've got for this week: |
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| Fantasy Football Mailbag |
| Owen: I have Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson on my team in an 8 team, non-PPR, 1 QB, dynasty league. I'm guessing your advice would be to hold on him for now, but given the state of my team, I'm considering just moving on when we draft the rookies in early May. Is that crazy? |
| Talking about Watson and the very serious accusations against him from a Fantasy football perspective is incredibly difficult to do right now. In case you aren't aware, Watson has been accused of sexual misconduct by several women, 21 of whom have filed civil lawsuits against him. The NFL is investigating the allegations, and obviously he could face discipline pending that investigation, in addition to what might come through the legal system if the claims against him are found to have merit. |
| There's no point in speculating further than that, but I do understand that you may be playing in leagues that require you to make decisions before we know the outcome of the legal actions or the NFL's investigation. What we know is that these accusations exist and that the NFL has been willing to discipline players for off-field misconduct accusations even if the legal system clears them of any wrongdoing. |
| If you do have to make a decision around having Watson on your roster in the near future, your best course of action depends on the level of risk tolerance you are comfortable with. Myself, I would be looking to move on from him, and getting a first-round rookie in exchange would be enough for me to make that move. |
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| Jeff: What is to be done with James Conner? |
| I was hoping to put him on our league's trade block once he signed somewhere in free agency, but he still hasn't signed anywhere, and now, with the draft only a few short weeks away, I'm starting to wonder whether he actually will sign anywhere. |
| I've scoured the internet looking for anything to suggest that he might be close to signing with anyone, but I haven't found even any rumors except that he might eventually re-sign with PIT. Have there been any other rumors out there that I might have missed, and is it fair to assume that it's his injury history that's apparently putting teams off him? |
| If you're in a keeper or Dynasty league, I'm afraid there simply isn't much to be done with regards to Conner. There's always the chance the Steelers bring him back, in which case he probably returns to the RB2 discussion. He could also end up getting signed by a team like the Cardinals or Falcons and wind up with a potentially valuable role for Fantasy as well. |
| But, given how long he's been available and how little noise there has been around him -- I mean, honestly, I'm not sure I've heard a single rumor about Conner since free agency started -- it seems unlikely some team is going to make him a significant part of its offense. And, if he doesn't sign before the draft, it's going to be even tougher to find a role. |
| And yet … it ultimately depends on when you need to make a decision. I wouldn't think you'll get much for him in trade, but if someone were to offer you, say, a top-120 player for him, take it. If not, and you don't have to make a decision on him until closer to the season, I would wait to see if he gets the chance to sign somewhere as an injury replacement. You know there are going to multiple significant injuries in training camp/preseason, and those could lead to opportunities for him. Conner is just 25 and had three-down skills, so if you can hang on to him -- or if you get the chance to buy really low this offseason -- he could still wind up being useful. |
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| Mark: How does your strategy change in a 16-person league. Full PPR, re-draft,4 Point QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE, Flex, D, K. |
| My gut reaction to this question was to try to make running back even more of a priority early in drafts, and I think there's something to that. There are, by my count, around 24 running backs I would feel comfortable starting, compared to maybe as many 40 wide receivers -- I have 39 WR projected to average 12.0 Fantasy points in PPR, compared to 24 RB. Theoretically, you could draft three running backs with your first three picks and still end up with a WR group you don't hate. In a league like this, where several managers will only have one of those top-24 RB, that could give you a significant advantage. |
| The problem is, the attrition rate at running back is so high that you'd be investing an awful lot in a position where the hit rate might only be around 50-60% in the early rounds. Theoretically, having three viable starting running backs when your league mates have two or even just one is a pretty big advantage. However, in reality, you're going to get very little out of at least one of those backs, while there will probably be, over the course of the season, maybe 16 viable running back starters available on waivers due to injuries or changes in roles. You could, of course, invest heavily in FAB or on waivers to make sure you end up with at least one of those backs, but the truth is, you run the risk of putting your team at a significant disadvantage by investing so heavily in a fungible asset so early only to have to continue to do the same in-season. |
| Ideally, I think I would want two of my top 24 at running back, and the good news is, the likes of Melvin Gordon or Myles Gaskin could fall far enough where you could take a tight end and wide receiver with two of your first three picks and still end up with one. Ultimately, it depends on where you pick, but because I think other managers in your league are likely to prioritize running back even more than usual early, I would be content to end up with just one good running back starter and then a handful of guys like Devin Singletary, Tarik Cohen, James White and Kenyan Drake -- guys who won't be stars, but could be top-30 backs most weeks for cheap. |
| The one thing I might be even more intent on doing in this type of league is get one of the big three at tight end. That's going to mean investing a first round pick in one of them, but just take a look at the difference in projected scoring between my No. 3 tight end (Darren Waller) and No. 16 (Rob Gronkowski): |
| Waller: 249.1 PPR points Gronkowski: 137.2 PPR points |
| And, given that it's a deeper league, the streaming options at tight end are going to be even worse than a usual league. Wait on QB, get an elite TE, and try to get at least one good starter at RB. That would be my plan. |
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| Chris B.: One of the managers in our league started leaving empty spots on his roster during the week as players from the previous week went on bye or were injured. This was mildly annoying as opponents did not know which players they would be up against and were unable to easily assess their real chances of winning. This degenerated to him benching all of his players each week, and in future weeks, bringing them off the bench on Thursday or Sunday morning. As the playoffs progressed and he continued winning he continued this behavior, waiting later each week before putting players in his lineup, up to Monday night in some cases. Of course we all secretly hoped for a power outage or internet malfunction and for him to not be able to set his lineup and have empty spots. Sadly, no such luck and he went on to win the league. |
| I realize that this behavior does not impact the scoring or which manager wins each week but it does take some fun out of the league as managers are in the dark about their contest. I do not think there is any rule against this but am interested to know what your onion is on this and if you think there are actions which can or should be taken. |
| OK … this is hilarious. There's nothing wrong with this manager doing this, and the entire concept is objectively hysterical -- especially knowing how annoyed it makes everyone else in your league. Should this person, whom you presumably consider a friend, be doing something he knows annoys his league-mates? You could maybe argue he's violating some sort of unspoken social contract of a Fantasy league by doing something that is knowingly aggravating the rest of the league. But it's not like he's Bill Belichick stretching the utility of the word "questionable" in a way that could potentially impact the competitive balance of the league. He identified your collective goat, and now he's got it. |
| Make a rule against it if you want, but that would strike me as almost impossible to enforce -- what if someone's got two guys injured and is waiting for a late waiver claim to set their lineup. Tell your league-mates to stop complaining, and if you guys are so worried about knowing your projected score, fire up the calculator app on your phone and add it up. |
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