Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my baseline team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes.

Projected Offensive Plays – (20th)

Projected Passing TDs – 26.4 (14th)

Projected Rushing TDs – 15.9 (28th)

Notable coaching changes:

• Hired Liam Coen as offensive coordinator

Coen replaces Dave Canales as OC, as the Buccaneers lost a good portion of the offensive staff to the upstart Carolina Panthers this offseason. As far as replacements go, Coen is certainly an easy one to get excited about. He served as the Kentucky offensive coordinator in 2021, then was the OC for Sean McVay and the Rams in 2022, and returned to call plays for Kentucky for the 2023 season.

Coen's 2021 Kentucky team won 10 games and averaged 6.4 yards per play and 3.92 offensive touchdowns per game. Without him and Wan'Dale Robinson in 2022, but with Will Levis still remaining and playing at relatively the same level, the Wildcats won just seven games, produced 5.2 yards per play and 2.3 offensive touchdowns per game. Things were better with Coen back calling plays in 2023, even without Levis at QB.

Most notably, check out Kentucky's rushing statistics by season:

Those are some pretty wild splits!

As far as the rest of Coen's profile, not a whole lot stuck out in a clearly positive way. It's not that I was discouraged by what I found, I just didn't feel confident that he is an improvement from what Canales offered in any area outside of the run game. His Kentucky offenses didn't use pre-snap motion much, although it's worth noting that his motion rate increased from 34% in 2021 to 47% in 2023 after spending a year working with McVay. Coen liked to lean on the ground game and incorporate a lot of play-action, which bodes well for Mayfield. While Mayfield's career season with Canales came operating a mostly straight dropback shotgun offense, his career splits (including 2023 data) suggest that like most quarterbacks, play action has boosted his efficiency. Mayfield also has posted better numbers when under center than out of the gun.

I'm expecting this offense to be more varied in its approach in 2024, which may unlock a new level of efficiency. For what it's worth, Vegas lookahead lines have the Bucs with just the 22nd-highest implied point total for 2024, barely coming in ahead of the Vikings, Steelers, and Commanders.

Notable offensive line changes

• Drafted Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton 26th overall (Barton played left tackle in 2022-23 but has experience playing center and is expected to start there for Tampa)
• Signed veteran interior linemen Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta in free agency
• Drafted guard Elijah Klein in Round 6

Tristan Wirfs excelled in his transition from right to left tackle in 2023 and is expected to hold down that spot again. If the interior line improves, this line could be among the top-third of NFL units. Luke Goedeke (2022 Round 2 pick) showed promise at right tackle. The tackle spots could be a real strength in Tampa. This line's performance will likely come down to how well the interior plays.

The guard spots are particularly problematic. Cody Mauch (2023 Round 2 selection) struggled mightily as a rookie. He ranked 77th among 83 qualified guards in PFF grade. Among the six guards who graded out worse, one (Bredeson) is expected to start opposite Mauch at the other guard spot. Bredeson had shown some promise in his third season but was among the many disasters on the Giants roster in 2023. He allowed the sixth-most hurries of any guard, while Mauch allowed a league-high hurry total at the guard spot and the third-most at any position.

Maybe a rookie center and a new offensive line coach (Kevin Carberry) will be enough to shore the interior up. I'd place this line right in the middle among the 20-ish that I have evaluated to this point, with the upside to move up that list if the young players exceed expectations.

White finished as the Fantasy RB4 in 2023 and recorded the 11th-highest scoring Fantasy RB season for a player aged 25 or younger over the past five years (full PPR). His rushing efficiency remained a huge red flag, though. After averaging 3.7 yards per rush in 2022, White averaged only 3.6 yards in 2023.

How on Earth did he finish as the RB4 in Fantasy, then?

White recorded more explosive receptions (20+ yards gained) than anyone at the RB position, which is likely a bit fluky but also could be part of his game. White has decent top-line speed, and he consistently showed deceptive ability to set up angles that allowed him to beat open-field defenders with a one-cut move. Even if it is part of his game, is it something that we can expect to be repeated?

Over the past 10 seasons, there have been 32 instances of a running back recording 200-plus receiving yards on explosive receptions. White joined that group with 259 receiving yards on 10 explosive receptions in 2023. Of those 32 instances, 27 were unique. Only four players (Alvin Kamara, McCaffrey, David Johnson, and Duke Johnson) hit 200+ yards of explosive receptions a second time, and Kamara was the only RB to record three such seasons.

History suggests that the probability of White repeating this year's big play production in the passing game is roughly 15%. White produced only one explosive reception on 50 catches as a rookie. What we got from White in 2023 was a shocking result. White's yards after the catch per reception as a rookie was 6.2. That number ballooned to 9.5 in Year 2 thanks to his outlier explosive reception rate.

White also ran more routes than any RB. On a per-route basis, he was nothing special. His target per route run rate (15.7%) was actually below the league average (18.8%) at RB.

His rushing efficiency was better in Year 2 than during his rookie season, yet 2023 marked the second year in which a backfield-mate (Chase Edmonds, in this case) was more efficient than White across the board as a rusher. Displayed below are White's ranks among 49 running backs with 100+ attempts in 2023.

42nd - Yards after contact per attempt
36th - Avoided tackle rate
38th - Explosive rush rate
47th - Rush success rate (this is more of a team-level stat, but again, White registered a lower rate than Edmonds in the same backfield)

I don't feel particularly confident in White as a player. I'm not sure if it matters for Fantasy purposes, though. This discussion is similar to the one that we just had about Alvin Kamara in the Saints team preview. White projects very similar to Kamara, albeit with less target potential. White still ranks behind only Christian McCaffrey, Kamara, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Tyjae Spears in my RB target projections. He's just nowhere near Kamara. The Saints produced more overall targets than Tampa's offense in 2023, and I view New Orleans as more likely to lean into the pass game under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak while viewing Tampa as more likely to lean a bit more into the ground game under Coen. There's more rushing upside available to White, then, especially when it comes to projecting touchdowns.

Only the Vikings scored a higher percentage of total touchdowns via the pass than Tampa (76%) in 2023. The league average was 58%. Coen's Kentucky Wildcats posted a 43% rate in 2021, even with Levis and Wan'Dale Robinson leading the offense. That rate rose to 66% without Coen in 2022. In 2023, Kentucky produced 50% of total touchdowns through the air.

White accounted for 75% of Tampa's rushing touchdowns in 2023, which tied Derrick Henry for the fourth-highest rate among running backs. Tampa only scored eight rushing touchdowns, so no one noticed. If Tampa scores through the ground game more under Coen, White could sneak into a double-digit touchdown total.

Irving was awesome at Oregon. He avoided tackles at a high rate and piled up receptions. His prospect profile certainly looks appealing "in the spreadsheets." I'm not so sure how well his skill set will translate to the pros. The closest comparison that I found is Clyde Edwards-Helaire, except Irving has Round 4 draft capital.

This team preview was written on July 26, so we are still early in the process. But still, the fact that Todd Bowles brings up Chase Edmonds when asked about Irving's role is not encouraging.

If you are not familiar with The Coachspeak Index on Twitter, it is a fantastic resource. That account has monitored what each team's decision-makers have said this offseason and continues to paint a narrative that Bowles views White as a unique every-down contributor.

I'm not currently projecting Irving as if he's going to cut into White's workload in any sort of significant way. As a result, White stands out as clearly projecting for more PPR points than Kenneth Walker and James Cook. He's also ahead of Travis Etienne in terms of median PPR projection. I've heard some suggest that White doesn't have the upside to be worth selecting ahead of those backs, but I don't agree. He was the RB4 with nine touchdowns last year, and I could see him eclipsing that touchdown total with only rushing scores in 2024.

If White sees the same type of workload as last year, he absolutely could again push for top-five Fantasy RB production. I have White ranked behind Etienne, Isiah Pacheco, and Josh Jacobs because his offense is expected to be the worst of that bunch. It would not surprise me if he outscores that whole group, though. He's not someone that I have drafted a whole lot of, as I'm typically taking the other positions in his ADP range. But I'm fine with him if I need a RB, especially in PPR formats.

In early June, I created a Twitter thread examining the aging receivers through the lens of performance vs. man coverage. Evans stood out in this regard, he just continues to excel even at the ripe old age of 30 (he'll be 31 in August).

The Mayfield-Evans mind meld was apparent right away, and I'm expecting another heavy heaping of air yards and targets for Tampa's top WR. Evans ran hot in terms of producing wildly efficient results on deep targets in 2023, and he scored 13 touchdowns. The result was the WR6 overall finish in PPR. Similar to White, there were some efficiency-based results, which will likely regress in 2024, but the potential to push for that type of a Fantasy finish again remains realistic. Evans is the clear preference for Mayfield when passing near the end zone, of course.

I'm projecting Tampa's pass-to-run rates to normalize a bit in 2024, which hurts the projection for these passing game pieces. Still, Evans looks like a surefire top-20 Fantasy WR with upside for more. I currently rank him as the WR17 (find my full rankings on SportsLine), just behind Chris Olave, Deebo Samuel, and Malik Nabers and just ahead of Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, and George Pickens.

I have noticed a narrative that Godwin's return to the slot will be a good thing for his Fantasy value. I'm not so sure what that's based on.

If anything, Godwin's move to the slot simply signals that we're more likely to see Year 2 receiver Trey Palmer on the field more than rookie Jalen McMillan . I liked what we saw from Palmer as a rookie, even though it rarely resulted in Fantasy relevancy. He made some important plays and showed legit speed to threaten defenses. McMillan seems likely to be slot-reliant as a pro, but maybe he will prove to be more than I'm accounting for. In the rare instance when Rome Odunze was not on the field at Washington, McMillan was the receiver who stepped up and produced more. I found that interesting since the consensus viewed Ja'Lynn Polk as definitively ahead of McMillan during the draft process.

If Godwin or Evans were to miss time, McMillan would be the player I would project for an increase in targets. His archetype is much more similar to Godwin, but I still think he'd be the player who'd become relevant for Fantasy purposes if either WR was out of the picture. Palmer's route tree at this stage in his career is simply not designed for him to be a big part of the target distribution. He's creating space for the rest of the offense to move the chains.

I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July and into the first week of August! Monday, we will be covering the Atlanta Falcons. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way.