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| Wednesday, December 13, 2023 |
| Happy midweek, everyone! There are only four weeks left until the start of the playoffs. So John Breech is taking the day to stock up on any and all Jake Browning jerseys he can find. In the meantime, you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver the latest. |
| This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.) |
| We've got a major Bill Belichick rumor, Week 15 picks from Pete Prisco and much more: |
| 1. Today's show: Debating Prisco's Power Rankings |
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| Pete Prisco, Ryan Wilson and John Breech joined Will Brinson on the latest "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to dissect and debate Prisco's latest Power Rankings, where the 49ers reign supreme, but plenty of other teams have shuffled up and down. |
| Some highlights: |
| The Dolphins "looked lost" without Tyreek Hill late in Week 14, Prisco said, prompting Wilson to suggest Miami is curiously similar to the Chiefs without Hill out wide -- sluggish and unreliable. No one's in love with the 'Phins in a crowded AFC.The Bills, meanwhile? They register as "incredibly dangerous," Wilson said, with Prisco arguing Josh Allen would be getting a lot more MVP buzz if it weren't for Buffalo hovering just above .500 in the standings. The Browns are making the playoffs, Prisco predicted after vaulting Cleveland up to No. 8 in his power rankings. The Cowboys, meanwhile, almost need to reach the NFC title game to confirm the hype of Mike McCarthy's Coach of the Year bid. |
| Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Picks: Bills survive Cowboys, Lions rebound |
| Pete Prisco went 10-4-1 making against-the-spread picks in Week 14. Now, he's looking to replicate that mark with picks for every single Week 15 contest. Here's a couple of his most notable projections: |
| Colts 21, Steelers 16: This is a big game in terms of the playoffs for both teams, especially with the Steelers coming off two straight losses. The Steelers have issues on offense, but the defense has gone backwards as well.Lions 29, Broncos 20: The Broncos are playing a third consecutive road game, which is brutal to do. The Lions, though, are coming off a bad loss to the Bears last week. They are a different team at home, which is why I think this is where they can get back on track. It won't be easy, but they find a way to win it.Bills 33, Cowboys 30: This is a huge game for the Bills as they push for a playoff spot, while the Cowboys are pushing for seeding. Both offenses have had success lately, but the Cowboys have really amped it up. I think the Bills' desperation will trump the Cowboys playing for a seed. They start by winning a shootout here. Josh Allen beats Dak Prescott. |
| 3. Patriots rumors: Bill Belichick already confirmed gone? |
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| Belichick is the most accomplished coach of all time. And he's still got four games left in the 2023 campaign. But Patriots owner Robert Kraft has already decided to part ways with the the longtime leader following the season, according to NBC Sports Boston. |
| At 3-10, Belichick is on pace for the worst single-season record of his illustrious career. But Kraft apparently determined following the Patriots' ugly Week 10 loss to the Colts in Germany, which dropped the Pats to 2-8, that "they were going to play out the string" before splitting up in the 2024 offseason. Asked about the report Wednesday, Belichick sidestepped the question, telling reporters he's focused on the Patriots' upcoming Week 15 matchup with the Chiefs. |
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| 4. Injury and lineup updates: Dobbs out, DeVito taking over |
| Here's the latest from around the NFL: |
| Vikings name Nick Mullens new starting QB: Josh Dobbs is out after four up-and-down starts in MinnesotaTommy DeVito's agent says QB 'won the locker room': The Giants rookie is all the rage in JerseyDolphins reunite with Melvin Ingram: The veteran provides pass-rushing depth for the stretch runConnor Williams out for the season: Miami's starting center suffered a torn ACL Browns' Jedrick Wills undergoes surgery: The standout tackle will miss the rest of 2023 with a knee injury |
| 5. QB Power Rankings: Prescott, Purdy leading the charge |
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| Every week, we rank all 32 starting QBs according to current standing. It's fitting that the 49ers and Cowboys are up top after taking turns blowing out the Eagles, but plenty of other signal-callers changed spots as well. Here are some of the most notable movers: |
1. Brock Purdy, 49ers
2. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (+1)
4. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+4)
5. Jalen Hurts, Eagles (-3)
9. Russell Wilson, Broncos (+4)
10. Justin Fields, Bears (+5) |
| Why Purdy at No. 1 instead of Prescott? Eighteen starts into his career, he's up to 38 touchdowns, 11 picks, and a 9.3 yards-per-throw mark with a 15-3 record. Yes, the 49ers have an all-star setup, but it still takes a smart, confident, dynamic signal-caller to deliver that production. As a bonus, he's helped San Francisco beat up on some better teams compared to Dallas. |
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| 6. Playoff projections: Broncos, Packers sneak in as wild cards |
| Every week, John Breech collects SportsLine's latest simulations to project the entire playoff picture. This week's numbers suggest some notable berths and omissions in both conferences. Here's a look: |
| Broncos make it over Texans: The Broncos (7-6) looked to be left for dead after starting the season 1-5, but the computer thinks they're going to pull off one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history by making the playoffs this year. If that happens, they'd become just the fifth team ever to make the playoffs after a 1-5 start.Dolphins win AFC East, barely: Despite a stunning loss to the Titans, the computer still has the Dolphins (9-4) winning the division. According to our projections, Miami has a 77.6% chance of winning the division while the Bills are sitting way behind them at 22.4%. That being said, there is a serious chance those two teams could be playing for the division title in Week 18. Packers still make it as a wild card: Although the Packers suffered an embarrassing loss to the Giants on Monday night, they caught a break and that's mostly because the two teams immediately below them in the standings (Rams and Seahawks) also lost. That's a big reason why the computer is still projecting that Green Bay is going to make the playoffs. However, the computer is expecting a dogfight between the Packers, Seahawks, Rams, Saints and Falcons. The Packers play the Bucs this week and the loser of that game will likely see their wild-card chances dwindle to almost nothing. |
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