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| Wednesday, December 14, 2022 |
| Happy Wednesday, everyone. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are cruising, and John Breech decided to take the day off to rewatch Burrow's appearance on "Monday Night Football" with the Manning brothers. He can't get enough! Anyway, you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the NFL. |
| This is the Pick Six newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.) |
| We've got Week 15 predictions, quarterback updates, playoff picks and much more: |
| Today's show: Week 15 betting picks, preview, predictions |
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| Tyler Sullivan joined Will Brinson on Wednesday's "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to break down all the biggest Week 15 matchups from a betting perspective. Which teams are the safest bets? Which point spreads are suspicious? Here are some highlights: |
| Brinson is buying the 49ers (-3) as road favorites on Thursday night, citing the Seahawks' porous run defense (which has allowed an NFL-worst 209 yards per game the last four weeks) as a major concern for Seattle. Sully is also leaning San Francisco, but he's more wary of a potential Brock Purdy slip-up in a "kitchen-sink game" for the home underdogs.Both guys are leaning Lions in a pick 'em matchup with the Jets, unsure of Mike White's status as New York's battered signal-caller. But Brinson has concerns: "Can Jared Goff go win that game in the cold weather if the Lions can't run?" The Cowboys (-4.5) should be favored against the Jaguars, the guys agreed, even in light of Trevor Lawrence's recent tear. But they noted Dallas could easily get caught looking ahead to a Week 16 matchup with the NFC East-leading Eagles. |
| Catch the full episode (and subscribe for daily NFL talk) right here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Picks: Bills rout Dolphins, Commanders edge Giants |
| Pete Prisco went 9-4 making straight-up picks, and stayed in the green on best bets, for Week 14. Now he's back with predictions for every single Week 15 matchup. Here's a sampling: |
| Bills 27, Dolphins 17: The Dolphins have lost two straight and they are now playing a third straight road game. That's brutal. The Bills lost to Miami in the first meeting, even though they dominated. Tua Tagovailoa has struggled the past two weeks and the conditions are supposed to be tough in this one.Lions 25, Jets 20: This is a big game. Yes, it's a big game. The Lions have won five of six to get into the playoff race. The Jets are coming off a second straight loss with Mike White at quarterback. He has played well, but this game will be about the Lions offense against the Jets defense. I think the Lions get the best of it.Commanders 23, Giants 17: The Commanders get the schedule break here as they come off the bye, while the Giants come off a bad loss to the Eagles. These two tied two weeks ago in New York, but this time the Commanders will win it behind their run game and defense. The Giants are reeling. |
| 3. Kyler Murray confirmed out for season with torn ACL |
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| Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury basically told reporters to expect the worst after his quarterback was carted off with a knee injury against the Patriots on Monday. A day later, further tests confirmed the former No. 1 overall pick suffered a torn ACL. That means Murray will soon be headed to injured reserve, miss the rest of the 2022 season and, potentially, part of 2023. ACL rehab typically takes nine to 12 months, and even that timeframe doesn't necessarily guarantee a return to full speed. So buckle up in Arizona, where backup Colt McCoy will stay under center and the Cardinals will go into the offseason with uncertainty at a huge position. |
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| 4. Projected playoff picture: Chargers overtake Patriots in AFC |
| The battle for playoff spots is in full swing. But which teams are best positioned to actually clinch spots? John Breech has collected the latest simulations from SportsLine's projection model to forecast the entire playoff picture. Here's a look at the expected final standings, according to predictions for every single game left on the schedule: |
AFC: Bills (1), Chiefs (2), Ravens (3), Titans (4), Bengals (5), Dolphins (6), Chargers (7)
Just missed: Patriots (49%), Jets (33.1%) |
NFC: Eagles (1), Vikings (2), 49ers (3), Buccaneers (4), Cowboys (5), Commanders (6), Seahawks (7)
Just missed: Giants (57.8%), Panthers (20.6%) |
| The Patriots are currently the seventh seed in the NFL playoff standings, but the computer doesn't think that's where New England will end up. ... One reason the computer likes the Chargers so much is because they have the second-easiest remaining schedule. Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .356, while the Patriots are dealing the third-most difficult remaining schedule (Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .615). Chargers remaining schedule: Titans, at Colts, Rams, at Broncos. |
| 5. QB Power Rankings: Herbert in top five, Purdy skyrockets |
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| Every week, we rank all 32 starting quarterbacks according to current value. Going into Week 15, we've got a ton of movement on the board, with some signal-callers making giant leaps and others enduring a tumble. One of the biggest gains belong to Brock Purdy, who easily outdueled Tom Brady in his first career start for the 49ers. Here's a look at where Purdy and other shifting QBs land in the latest pecking order: |
5. Justin Herbert (Chargers), +1
8. Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), +4
10. Jared Goff (Lions), +5
11. Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), -3
15. Brock Purdy (49ers), +15 |
| 6. Baker Mayfield set to start for Rams vs. Packers in prime time |
| Mayfield had an improbably inspiring introduction as Los Angeles' latest fill-in QB to start Week 14, guiding the Rams to a flashy comeback against the Raiders. Now, he's set to make another prime-time appearance, this time as the official starter. Coach Sean McVay has revealed that typical backup John Wolford is "likely out" for Week 15's Monday night matchup with the Packers, which means Mayfield is in line to keep the job. It's possible, if not probable, that the former Browns and Panthers castoff will remain the Rams QB for the remainder of 2022, with Matthew Stafford still on IR. |
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