Volatility Drops
BTC: Price: $10,240 | MCAP: $183.69 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $16.54 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish
Bitcoin's price volatility, as represented by Bollinger bandwidth, has hit the lowest level since May 3, and is closing on a level seen ahead of violent price swings in the past.
The recent surge in non-price metrics like the hash rate indicates the impending big move could be bullish.
Technical charts, however, are increasingly favoring a bearish move. For instance, the daily chart is reporting a failed breakout – BTC jumped 2.2 percent on Sept. 12, confirming a falling wedge . breakout only to end up creating a bearish lower high above $10,400.
Hence, BTC risks falling below $10,000 in the next day or two. Acceptance below the immediate support at $9,855 would bolster the bearish setup and expose $9,320 (Aug. 29 low).
On the higher side, a break above $10,956 is needed to revive the bullish outlook.
Long-term trend: Neutral
Bitcoin's monthly chart shows a double inside bar pattern – August’s candle falls within July's high and low and July’s candle is engulfed by June's high and low.
Double inside bars indicate indecision and lack of volatility and are considered a sign of bullish exhaustion, if they occur after a notable price rally, which seems to be the case here.
Also, the selling volume witnessed in July was the highest since March 2018. So, the long-run outlook stands neutralized.
A break above the high of the first inside bar ($13,200) is needed to revive the bullish outlook and a move below the low of the first inside bar ($9,049) will confirm a bearish reversal.
Traders can also take a weekly (Sunday, UTC) close or consecutive high-volume daily closes above $12,000 as a sign of bullish continuation. After all, a weekly close above $12,000 has remained elusive the last week of June.
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XRP Breaks 41-Day High
XRP: Price: $0.30 | MCAP: $13.1 million | 24-Hr Volume: $5.5 million
Short-term trend: Overbought
After a strong showing from XRP buyers late yesterday evening and early morning of today's open, XRP now appears exhausted post-rally courtesy of an overbought RSI on the daily chart.
Up 17.93 percent, XRP is one of today's best performing top 10 crypto at CoinMarketCap and has risen off the back of strong intraday trade volume signaling a legitimate move.
However, should conditions waiver and price turns south, look to former resistances along $0.28-$0.29 for support and a region to recuperate and bounce off of.
Long-term trend: Bearish
Despite a decent rally over the last 2-3 days, XRP's market structure remains considerably bearish given its recent yearly sell-off from $0.50 on June 22.
Prices need to rise by a further 56-60 percent in order to regain the loss of the lower high and reinvigorate long-term bullish prospects.
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| MaidSafeCoin In Trouble
MAID: Price: $0.20 | MCAP: $92.3 million | 24-Hr Volume: $379,465
Short-term trend: Bearish
MAID's bearish weekly outside bar shows increasing volatility building period to period alongside a fall in total trading volume, leading to a bearish volume and price analysis. Down a further 7.29 percent on the day, MAID has struggled to attract a greater share of the market as traders look to alternatives like XRP, ETH and XLM as viable options.
Long-term trend: Bearish
The long-term trend, illustrated by the awesome oscialltor producing smaller and smaller histogram bars, demonstrates the range and momentum from buyers has been capped as indecision grips.
The weekly RSI is currently trending bullish above 50 (55.37) but acts as the only outlier to what otherwise appears as a bearish lower low and lower high.
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Bitcoin could face strong selling pressure in the final three months of this year, a twitter poll conducted by popular analyst @davthewav showed on Tuesday.
About 58 percent of voters voted in favor of “slaughter in the fourth quarter”, while only 42 percent foresaw breakout.
The bearish bias contradicts the view put forward by some observers that the top cryptocurrency will rise to record highs above $20,000 in the run-up to the mining reward halving (supply cut) due in May 2020.
Fundamentals have indeed lined up in favor of the bulls. Notably, the non-price metrics like the hash rate have surged to record highs recently.
Further, the narrative that Federal Reserve’s rate cuts would boost bitcoin is slowly becoming entrenched into the market.
So, there is strong reason to believe that prices will break higher in the fourth quarter, reviving the bull run from April’s lows near $4,000.
That said, the longer duration technical charts are flashing signs of buyer exhaustion. For instance, BTC’s monthly chart shows back-to-back “inside bar” candlestick patterns.
The weekly moving average convergence divergence histogram, a widely-tracked trend following indicator, is reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print.
Hence, a deeper drop to levels to or below $9,000 could be seen before price breakout above $14,000. |
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| | Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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