| Dear Reader, We may not officially be in a recession yet. But if you’re watching the shipping lanes, you know we’re already in something. Just look at the last two weeks: Container bookings from China to the US are down up to 60%. Trucking volumes are collapsing toward COVID-era lows. DHL suspended all shipments under $800 to the United States. Walmart, Target, and Home Depot CEOs privately warned President Trump: Shelves could soon go empty. We’ve seen moments like this before—when the most critical trade artery in the world starts to choke. In early 2020, shipping volumes began to stutter… but the signals were murky. This time, the warnings are louder. Sharper. Even Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab, and one of our SIC speakers, flagged it herself: “Number of container ships departing China for the US has declined sharply… used vessel capacity has dropped more steeply than total capacity, indicating rising empty space and softening US import demand.” It’s not just fewer ships sailing. It’s more of them sailing half-empty. When the busiest trade lane on earth chokes, it’s more than a shipping story. It’s a supply chain story. A corporate margins story. A recession story… And a risk management story. We’re in the early stage of a tariff-driven recession, and the system is already adjusting in real time. And maybe we’re in one, and it’s not confirmed yet. Regardless… The question now is: What do we do about it? Click Here to Reserve Your Virtual Pass Now at 44% Off But before we really do anything, we need to start with first principles. Since we don’t know how long this will last. What we do know is that the longer uncertainty drags on, the more damage it does—to markets, to supply chains, to confidence. That’s why I’m especially looking forward to one of the most important sessions of the conference—on Day 4 of the Strategic Investment Conference: Tariffs, DOGE, and Policy Shock: What Trump 2.0 Actually Means for Your Money. No one is better equipped to walk us through what’s really happening behind closed doors than Renè Aninao and David Bahnsen. Renè brings deep policy intelligence. He’s a macro strategist operating at the intersection of national security, markets, and regulation—deeply wired into the policy side of things. He’s advised institutional clients from Wall Street to DC. David Bahnsen is just as dialed in, from the capital markets and Treasury side. He speaks frequently with policymakers, economic advisors, and executives—off the record, in the rooms where the big decisions get hashed out. It’s going to be the insider’s-insider panel. The kind of conversation that clears it up, and makes everything you’ve been hearing finally make sense Click Here to Reserve Your Virtual Pass Now at 44% Off I’ve been hosting SIC for over 20 years. Every one of them matters. But some stand out. In 2008, as the financial system buckled, investors turned to SIC to find footing, and walked away with frameworks that helped them protect capital through the chaos. In 2020, as markets crashed and the world shut down, thousands returned, and found the guidance and clarity they needed to navigate one of the fastest drawdowns in history. This year, 2025, is one of those years. Trade war. Tariffs. Recession. Policy shocks. Global realignment… The world’s changing fast, and the usual rules aren’t holding. That’s exactly why this year’s SIC couldn’t come at a better time. This year, we’ve packed five full days and 31 sessions into a single, all-access pass. Go see who’s speaking, what they’re covering, and when. It’s all laid out for you on the next page, including times and topics inside the full SIC 2025 agenda, now available. You can plan around the sessions that matter most to you, and join conversations with other serious investors… Click Here to Reserve Your Virtual Pass Now at 44% Off Once you’re in, I’ll send you a confirmation email with more details, including your invite to the private SIC 2025 Investor Forum. Go ahead and book your ticket now, so it’s done, off your plate, and I’ll see you then. Your preparing for what’s ahead and forever optimist analyst,
John Mauldin
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