Pending Sales Trending Downward, With a Possible Silver Lining

Pending home sales broke out of a seven-month slump in May, gaining 0.7 percent. If this were baseball, we might now call it a “balk.” The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) announced this morning that its June Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) plunged 8.6 percent. The index fell from 99.9 in May to 91.0, leaving it 20 percent lower than in June 2021. NAR said the reversal came “as escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers.” The PHSI, based on new contracts for the purchase of existing residential units, is a leading indicator of closed sales of single-family houses, condominiums, and cooperative apartments over the following one to two months. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. [pendinghomesdata] “Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize.” Analysts may have thought the May PHSI was already signaling such stabilization. Those polled by Econoday had expected the index to decline by only 1.0 percent. Trading Economics had been slightly closer to the mark with a forecast of -2.1 percent. According to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80 percent more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median-priced home today.

July 27, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Pending Sales Trending Downward, With a Possible Silver Lining Pending home sales broke out of a seven-month slump in May, gaining 0.7 percent. If this were baseball, we might now call it a “balk.” The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) announced this morning that its June Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) pl... (read more) Housing News Application Volumes Rival Early Pandemic Levels The number of applications for residential mortgages retreated for the fourth consecutive period during the week ended July 22 according to the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey produced by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA’s Market C... (read more) Rob Chrisman Broker, Pricing, Workflow, Upcoming Events, Training, Webinars; Fed Day as New Apps Hit 22 Year Low “Common sense is not a gift. It's a punishment because you have to deal with everyone who doesn't have it.” Common sense tells us that what goes up, must come down. Tulip bulbs, Florida real estate in the 1920s, cryptocurrency, and now sneakers. Peop... (read more) Mortgage Rates Repeat After Me: The Fed Doesn't Directly Hike/Cut Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.54% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.54% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 4.79% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.12% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.75% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.38% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.18% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/27 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.79% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.30% -0.40 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.45% -0.38 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.19% -0.31 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.74% -0.08 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 4.95% +0.07 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.32% +0.01 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/27 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 4.5 101.00 +0.44 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.5 101.00 +0.44 UMBS 5.0 102.13 +0.44 GNMA 4.5 101.33 +0.34 GNMA 5.0 102.14 +0.41 Pricing as of: 7/27 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.7812 -0.0220 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 2.982 -0.077 5 YR Treasury 2.836 -0.064 7 YR Treasury 2.837 -0.047 10 YR Treasury 2.781 -0.022 30 YR Treasury 3.063 +0.039 Pricing as of: 7/27 5:21PM EST Latest Video Federal Reserve raises rates by 75 basis points as it ramps up fight agains... You clearly see a slowing of demand in Q2 and you want that for a sustained... Ongoing increases in target range for fed funds rate will be appropriate, s... Price stability is the thing that makes the whole economy work, says Jerome... Around the Web CNBC Fed hikes interest rates by 0.75 percentage point for second consecutive time to fight inflation CNBC Top Federal Reserve officials say they misread inflation and now plan to correct the course CNBC Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession Calculated Risk Blog Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May CNBC Mortgage demand declines further, even as interest rates drop a bit CNBC Homebuilders are boosting incentives as they suddenly struggle to sell homes Eye on Housing Share of New Home Sales Backed by FHA Loans Reaches 14-Year Low wells fargo Not As Strong As It Looks: Defense & Inflation Explain Away Durables Strength CNBC The Fed could surprise markets by sounding even more aggressive as economy teeters CNBC Most investors, economists see Fed rate hikes causing a recession within one year, CNBC survey shows Calculated Risk Blog Comments on May Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases CNBC Home price growth slowed for the second straight month in May, S&P Case-Shiller says CNBC IMF slashes global GDP forecast as economic outlook grows 'gloomy and more uncertain'

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