Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Declined in March

The Pending Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is one of the most timely measurements of home sales activity in terms of monthly data because it measures sales contracts as opposed to closings. 2023 was off to a strong start with big gains in January followed by another modest improvement in February. March's data was expected to follow suit with a 0.5% increase, but the actual number came in 5.2% lower. Throw all of the above on a chart along with the past few years and it looks like this: To be sure, context matters if we're going to use words like "strong." The past two months of gains were only really strong relative to the very low numbers seen at the end of 2022. That's fine though. We shouldn't expect a resounding surge back to long-term highs in an environment where inventory remains excruciatingly tight with rates still uncomfortably close to multi-decade highs. NAR put the blame on inventory this time around, with Chief Economist Lawrence Yun saying "The lack of housing inventory is a major constraint to rising sales. Multiple offers are still occurring on about a third of all listings, and 28% of homes are selling above list price. Limited housing supply is simply not meeting demand nationally." But it wouldn't be unfair to consider that the relatively higher rates in March had an impact as well.

April 27, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Declined in March The Pending Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is one of the most timely measurements of home sales activity in terms of monthly data because it measures sales contracts as opposed to closings. 2023 was off to a stron... (read more) MBS Commentary Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP Bonds Reposition For "Higher For Longer" After GDP Today's GDP number came in lower than expected at 1.1 vs forecasts calling for 2.0. At face value, that should be good for rates, but bonds lost ground... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Rise Again as Markets Brace For Inflation Interest rates are determined by the price/yield of bonds. Bonds can take cues from several places, but inflation always matters. Inflation had been subdued for roughly a decade before exploding in the post-pandemic era. A series of... (read more) Rob Chrisman Digital Trading, HOA Document, Work Verification, Fannie QC Products; Non-Agency, Reverse News; Q1 GDP Numbers Born in Ukraine, Golda Meir said, “Old age is like a plane flying through a storm. Once you are aboard there is nothing you can do about it." (Doubtful anyone called her Goldy.) Her time as the Prime Minister of Israel ended in 1974, and since that t... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.67% +0.10% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% +0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.05% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.25% +0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.80% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.24% +0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/27 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.05% +0.08% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/27 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% +0.13 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% +0.11 0.65 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.28% +0.02 0.51 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/19 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.09 -0.19 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.09 -0.19 UMBS 5.5 100.55 -0.13 GNMA 5.0 99.23 -0.16 GNMA 5.5 100.42 -0.09 Pricing as of: 4/27 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.5242 +0.0792 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.074 +0.126 5 YR Treasury 3.595 +0.101 7 YR Treasury 3.572 +0.101 10 YR Treasury 3.524 +0.079 30 YR Treasury 3.754 +0.049 Pricing as of: 4/27 5:31PM EST Latest Video Pending home sales data fall 5.2% in March in wake of high 30-year fixed mo... The story around commercial real estate isn't what people think, says CBRE ... U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter Financial conditions 'not that tight' relative to rate hikes, says Dreyfus ... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" Eye on Housing States with Highest and Fastest Rising Construction Wages CNBC GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter, less than expected fhfa Setting the Record Straight on Mortgage Pricing: A Statement from FHFA Director Sandra L. Thompson Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 5.2% in March; Down 23.2% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 230,000 Eye on Housing Housing Share of GDP Lower in the First Quarter of 2023 Eye on Housing Housing Availability Expectations See Mild Improvement CNBC Treasury yields climb as investors assess economic outlook ahead of key data cfpb Joint Statement on Completing the LIBOR Transition Eye on Housing Share of FHA-Backed New Home Sales Climbs in Q1 2023 Eye on Housing Economic Growth Weakens in the First Quarter CNBC European markets head for lower open as nervousness over banking sector continues

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