Pending Home Sales Fell More Than Expected in November, But Some See a Bounce on The Horizon

Stop me if you've heard this one before: home sales numbers continue to suffer due to a perfect storm of higher rates, lofty prices, and tighter purse strings driven by inflation. Ultra low inventory levels can't be overlooked either. Any way you slice it, housing was booming at a frenzied pace by the end of 2021 and everyone simultaneously got the memo that it was time for things to cool off in 2022. In that sense, Pending Home Sales are no different than any of the other recent home sales data. They were very high and are now back in line with the lowest levels since the pandemic-related shutdowns in 2020. Unlike other recent home sales reports, Pending Sales is a bit more forward looking. In fact, it's often thought of as a solid predictor for activity in the subsequent Existing Sales numbers. That's bad because today's release of November's sales numbers showed a 4.0% decline versus a consensus forecast of -0.8%. It also brings the index below the lowest levels seen after the Great Financial Crisis. Long story short, this could suggest a similar dip is in store for the next Existing Home Sales report. But at this point, does an additional dose of weakness change the bigger picture? Not really. Being able to say "existing home sales fell below 2010's lows" would just be a talking point and another way to state what's already obvious. Home sales are searching for a floor. We'll know it when we see it. Until then, we can only hope and assume that some relief in the form of lower mortgage rates and more even-keeled inflation would help both the demand and supply sides of the home sales equation.

December 28, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Pending Home Sales Fell More Than Expected in November, But Some See a Bounce on The Horizon Stop me if you've heard this one before: home sales numbers continue to suffer due to a perfect storm of higher rates, lofty prices, and tighter purse strings driven by inflation. Ultra low inventory levels can't be overlooked either. Any... (read more) MBS Commentary Late Day Leakage Keeps Things Gloomy For Bonds Late Day Leakage Keeps Things Gloomy For Bonds We're witnessing the random walk of the winter holiday trading weeks--hoping to see a more sensible range when staffing levels improve in early January. Un... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Highest in Nearly a Month Up until just the past few weeks, the go-to headline to quantify the pace of recent mortgage rate movement tended to reference rates being the lowest in several months. Now at the end of December, the average lender is up to levels not seen sin... (read more) Rob Chrisman Marketing, Scalability, Lead Conversion Tools; Gender Pay Inequlity; Attorney's Thoughts on FHA Loan Comp Have you ever heard the term “scuddle”? It’s an English term from the 1500’s meaning “to wash dishes,” something many of us did plenty of over Christmas. I bring this up because on this date in 1886 Josephine Garis Cochrane patented the world’s first... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.54% +0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.54% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.85% +0.07 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.11% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.70% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.14% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.19% +0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.85% +0.07% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.15 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/22 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% 0.00 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.81% 0.00 0.53 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.97% 0.00 0.53 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/28 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.56 -0.27 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.56 -0.27 UMBS 5.5 100.31 -0.22 GNMA 5.0 98.95 -0.23 GNMA 5.5 100.47 -0.16 Pricing as of: 12/28 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.8865 +0.0375 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.355 -0.028 5 YR Treasury 3.970 +0.025 7 YR Treasury 3.968 +0.036 10 YR Treasury 3.887 +0.038 30 YR Treasury 3.974 +0.040 Pricing as of: 12/28 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed will treat inflation like a forest fire, says Milken's Bill Lee The Fed could signal rate cuts in the back half of 2023, says Edward Jones'... Trajectory for foreclosures will be on the rise next year, says Black Knigh... Bonds may be down but they're not out, says Garcia Hamilton's Gilbert Garci... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 4.0% in November, Year-over-year Down 37.8% Eye on Housing Top Posts of 2022: Highest Paid Occupations in Construction in 2021 Calculated Risk Blog Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November Calculated Risk Blog SF Fed: Recession Prediction on the Clock Eye on Housing Top Posts of 2022: The Nations Stock of Second Homes Calculated Risk Blog Comments on October Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices CNBC Treasury yields slip as investors gauge 2023 Fed policy CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors consider U.S. economic outlook CNBC What to know about the two student loan forgiveness cases the Supreme Court will hear legal arguments on in February Calculated Risk Blog New Home Sales Increased in November; Previous 3 Months Revised Down Sharply Eye on Housing Multifamily Construction Continues to Expand Outside Metro Core Areas Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.4% in November; Spending increased 0.1% CNBC European stocks look set to tick higher as markets wind down for the holidays

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