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Thursday, April 7, 2022
Happy Thursday, everyone! It's opening day in the MLB and the Fantasy Baseball season will be finally underway in a matter of hours. The countdown to the season was a weird, bumpy ride with the lockout but ultimately we've arrived sooner than we were at one point expecting. So I'm thankful for that. Now for some minor bad news that has hopefully already been delivered to you, but if not ... there were originally nine games on today's schedule, but two of those games -- Yankees vs. Red Sox (originally set to be the first game of the 2022 MLB  season) and Twins vs. Mariners -- have been postponed due to inclement weather in the forecasts.
With that said, here are a few of the other things I'm looking forward to on the opening day slate: 
  • Angels SP Shohei Ohtani making his first career opening day start. The reigning AL MVP for his bat was also incredible as a pitcher last season. I'm excited to see if he can build on that both from an innings and efficiency standpoint, but he gets a tough first test against the Astros lineup. 
  • Guardians SP Shane Bieber is someone I didn't end up with any shares of this draft season. And my concerns weren't entirely injury based, either. I have concerns about Bieber's command and it felt like none of the Bieber concerns were baked into his price -- he routinely came off the board earlier than I expected in drafts. Now, he faces a tougher than anticipated Royals lineup with top prospect Bobby Witt set to make his debut.
  • Speaking of Witt, I can't wait to see him make his debut. I think the Royals SS is going to be absolutely electric and in no time he'll qualify for you at 3B. Witt fired off a .406/.441/.781 triple-slash line with three home runs and two bags this spring. Sheesh!
And here's the complete schedule for today in Eastern time:
  • Cubs vs. Brewers, 2:20 p.m.
  • Nationals vs. Mets, 4:05 p.m.
  • Royals vs. Guardians, 4:10 p.m.
  • Cardinals vs. Pirates, 4:15 p.m.
  • Braves vs. Reds, 8:08 p.m.
  • Angels vs. Astros, 9:38 p.m.
  • D-Backs vs. Padres, 9:40 p.m.
But of course, as always, you can follow to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify
Bold predictions!
Chris Towers does an excellent job with his annual roundup of bold predictions from the Fantasy Baseball Today squad. You can find all of those here. Towers' boldest prediction focuses around a Byron Buxton breakout -- that's my shocked face! Below, I'll include my favorite prediction from each of them and then my boldest prediction to go along with it!
From Chris: "Byron Buxton wins the American League MVP. Anyone who listens to FBT knows about my love of Buxton. He was the best player in baseball on a per-game basis last season, and while I don't necessarily expect a repeat of his .306/.358/.647 line from last season over a full season, his .300 expected batting average and .611 expected slugging percentage based on StatCast data suggests it wasn't just a fluke. He's emerged as a legitimately great hitter, in addition to being arguably the best baserunner and defender in the game. If he plays 140 games, an 8.0-WAR season isn't unreasonable."
From Scott: "Jo Adell has more combined home runs and stolen bases than Jarred Kelenic. (And so does Julio Rodriguez.)  Sometimes there's one particular upside play who, for no objective reason, gets elevated above the others. Kelenic could be great, but Adell and Rodriguez are showing clearer signs of it and were similarly rated as prospects. It reminds me of how much later Kyle Tucker was being drafted than Luis Robert a couple of years ago."
From Frank: "Lourdes Gurriel finishes as the most valuable hitter on the Blue Jays. Not only does he have to outperform two first-round caliber players, but Gurriel also has to ascend to a level we haven't seen before. He basically has to put together the Teoscar Hernandez season from one year ago and hope that  Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette regress a bit. Gurriel's 162-game home run pace is 29. If he tweaks the launch angle a bit, hits 35 home runs with a .300 batting average and 8-10 steals, this is attainable."
My boldest prediction: Hunter Renfroe leads the National League in home runs. One of the biggest surprises of draft season for me was watching Renfroe continue to fall in seemingly every Fantasy draft I participated in. I guess that's why I ended up with so many more shares of him than any other outfielder not named Jo Adell. And I get it -- look it's very rare that we see excitement around the post, post, post-hype sleeper types like Renfroe. He's 29 years old now and coming off a breakout season that saw him cut down on his strikeout rate while racking up 31 home runs across 572 plate appearances. Now, he arrives in a better ball park for power with the Brewers and three of his top competitors for the NL home run crown are at a disadvantage -- Fernando Tatis and Ronald Acuna via injury and Cody Bellinger via being completely lost at the plate. Of course, this is a bold prediction, and he'll have to beat out the likes of Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto just to name a few -- but I'm going for the bold gold here!
Future first-round draft picks
For those of you who drafted Vlad Guerrero Jr. and/or Corbin Burnes last year, congratulations, you most likely won or came close to winning your league. But we've saluted and celebrated those breakouts enough. So I decided to ask Chris, Scott and Frank to give me their predictions for this year's Vlad and Burnes.
This year's Vlad
Scott: "Maybe I'm lacking in imagination, but the most realistic answer would be Christian Yelich bouncing back with 2018-19 numbers after a couple of injury-plagued years. Perhaps Julio Rodriguez's rookie season is explosive enough to get him drafted in that range next year."
Frank: "There are three options for me here, but I'll save Byron Buxton and George Springer for Chris and Scott. I'll go with Nick Castellanos. He just finished as the 18th overall player last season yet he's being drafted 48th overall for some reason. I was originally worried about where he would land, but the Phillies and Citizens Bank Park was one of the best. Just last year he hit .309 with 34 home runs, 100 RBI and a .939 OPS. That includes a horrific July where he was dealing with an injury. In 2022 he stays healthy the entire season and puts up massive numbers around Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. "
Chris: "Byron Buxton or George Springer if they can stay healthy. I'm not sure either's reputation would ever allow Fantasy players to treat them like top picks, but they're the guys I feel have the best chance of emerging as top-five players, at least."
This year's Burnes
Scott: "A lot of worthy candidates here, but I'll keep it simple. Burnes had a 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 12.6 K/9 last year. Carlos Rodon had a 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 12.6 K/9 and is back to throwing 98 mph this spring after a concerning velocity dip late last year. He's the one."
Frank: "Here comes the money! Shane McClanahan comes through on his breakout potential. Shane O Mac actually reminds me of another Shane in the Guardians' Bieber. Like Biebs, McClanahan allowed a ton of hard contact as a rookie last season but everything else screams potential. He throws mid-90s, has ridiculous secondary offerings and gets a ton of whiffs. I think the Rays figure out the hard contact issue through sequencing, and we're drafting McClanahan as a top-12 pitcher this time next year. As a bonus, shout out to Corbin Burnes' teammate Freddy Peralta who could also make that similar leap."
Chris: "If I can't go with Sandoval, how about Trevor Rogers. He already pitched like a top-12 SP for much of last season, with the lone exception really coming after he returned to the team following a family emergency. He's got three top-shelf pitches he can throw for swings and misses and should be able to get into the same kind of inning range as Burnes last season." (Editor's note: No one told Chris he can't continue to wax poetic about Patrick Sandoval.)
Week 1 preview: Top sleeper pitchers
Scott is now locked into full-season mode and that means weekly sleepers baby! You can find his full Week 1 preview of sleeper pitchers for Week 1 here. Here were a few who stood out to me and I will be using in some of my leagues:
Carlos Carrasco, Mets vs. WAS: "He struggled last year pitching with loose bodies in his elbow, but now that he's healthy, I'll trust in the track record against what should be a bottom-of-the-division club."
Drew Rasmussen, Rays vs. BAL: "The Orioles are of course an easy victim, but given the way the Rays handle their pitchers, there's no guarantee Drew Rasmussen goes deep enough for a win."
Bailey Ober, Twins vs. SEA: "An elite strike-thrower with an impressive minor-league track record, Bailey Ober's efficiency gives him a chance to secure a win even against an improved lineup."
Week 1 preview: Top sleeper hitters
For Scott's entire list of sleeper hitters to get in your lineups, you'll find it here. Here were a few who stood out to me and I will be using in some of my leagues:
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Brewers vs. CHCx4: "The Cubs rotation is full of hittable pitchers. Two of the four on tap are lefties, who Andrew McCutchen crushed to the tune of a .293 batting average and 1.027 OPS last season."
C.J. Abrams, SS, Padres vs. ARIx4: "The Padres may not be ready to hand the 21-year-old an everyday role, but since they're one of just 10 teams playing four games this week, I like his chances to make an impact."
Robinson Cano, 2B, Mets vs. WASx4: "The Mets have the most favorable matchups of any team this week, and since only one of the four scheduled pitchers is a lefty, Robinson Cano should get plenty of run at DH."
 
 
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