Good morning investors. Monday’s record-breaking session reinforced the historical pattern that stocks tend to go up during the week of Thanksgiving.

Three-and-a-half trading days left this week!

If this was forwarded to you, sign up to receive this newsletter directly in your inbox.

Turkey week pays well

Investors have a lot to be thankful for this week beyond turkey and stuffing. 

While markets are closed Thursday and traders will enjoy a half-day on Friday, the truncated Thanksgiving week tends to deliver strong returns for stocks. 

Dating back to 1928, the S&P 500 finishes Thanksgiving weeks positive six out of ten times with an average gain of 0.28%, according to data tracked by Bank of America.

That’s double a typical week’s return of 0.14%.

Thanksgiving week during election years fare even better, with the benchmark index up 75% of the time on an average return of 0.88%.  

To be clear, the S&P 500 — which has climbed over 26% so far this year — goes up more often than not.

Over the last century, the index has finished a week positive 56% of the time. 

In any case, the stretch between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, historically, remains more bullish than usual.

While the S&P 500 the week after Thanksgiving has averaged a decline of 0.01%, the roughly five weeks through January sees an average return of 1.46% and stocks are higher nearly three-quarters of the time, as the chart below shows.

“Strong positive returns from Thanksgiving through New Year's Eve in election years suggests a buy the post-Thanksgiving dip ahead of a year-end rip pattern,” Bank of America strategist Stephen Suttmeier wrote in a note to clients. 

Besides Turkey Day seasonality, it’s not hard to rattle off tailwinds supporting equities:

Plus, Wall Street seems more than satisfied with president-elect Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary.

“[Bessent] is clearly viewed, and appropriately so, as being the proverbial ‘adult in the room’ since he is moderate and conventional in his views thereby tempering concerns that American economic policy is heading into some deep unknown,” said Dave Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, in a Monday note.

Thoughts or feedback? Reply directly to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

Want more financial news after the closing bell?

Thousands of readers trust Brew Markets for their end-of-day stock market analysis. Opening Bell Daily will handle your morning dispatch, and you can wrap up your afternoons with Brew Markets from Morning Brew.

Join free.

Elsewhere:

🇨🇳 A new trade war may loom. President-elect Trump said late Monday he plans to raise tariffs by an additional 10% on all Chinese goods entering the US, and he also said he will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. These would be part of a string of executive orders he implements in January, Trump wrote on Truth Social. (CNBC)

💵 Warren Buffett is giving billions away. The Berkshire Hathaway chief named three independent trustees to oversee his philanthropy and donated an additional $1.1 billion in company stock to his family’s four foundations. Rather than leave everything to his children, the 94-year-old has pledged to give away 99% of his fortune. (CNBC)

🏦 MicroStrategy spent another $5.4 billion on bitcoin. The company announced Monday it purchased 55,000 tokens last week as it hovered just below $100,000. MicroStrategy said it used proceeds from convertible notes and share sales to fund the buying. Shares of the company fell on the day. (Investopedia)

Rapid-fire:

Traders see 54% odds for a rate cut in December, according to Kalshi, the biggest US prediction market:

Last thing:

Interested in advertising in Opening Bell Daily? Email [email protected]