Welcome! If this is your first time reading one of my postcards, catch up on my back issues here. And if you have questions or comments, shoot us a note anytime here or at [email protected]. |
Nothing Left to Do But Wait… Except… By Tom Dyson, Editor, Postcards From the Fringe PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA – For the last 18 months, I’ve been focused on gold. Kate and I have put all of our savings and retirement accounts into physical gold, silver, and mining stocks. We’re waiting for the Dow-to-Gold ratio to hit 5. Then we’ll start transitioning into stocks that pay rising dividends, which we’ll use for long term compounding. I call these stocks “corporate aristocrats.” They’re companies with entrenched market positions, strong brand recognition, don’t have big expansion plans, and raise their dividends relentlessly year after year. There's simply no better way to generate high rates of return over long periods… especially if you can buy them when they’re cheap… We’ll stay there, most likely, for the rest of my life. In the meantime, there’s nothing left to do but wait… Except there is one trade outside of gold that’s got my attention right now (more below). Florida Wetlands Greetings from the campground… It’s day one of our road trip from Florida to Alaska. We’ve traveled 68 miles. So far so good. Our little pop up tent is cozy and comfortable. The weather is perfect (a nice breeze keeps us cool night and day) and we’re in a beautiful spot. We’re in site #15, the best site in the house, right next to the wetlands. I’m writing to you from the picnic table at sunrise. Here’s my office today…  Our spot next to the wetlands
A seven-foot alligator named Stinky Pete lives in the water behind our tent. He’s been watching us all day. Some neighbors came over to warn us when they saw we had children. They said we shouldn’t let the children get too close to the water. Tomorrow we get back on the road heading north… | Recommended Link | EMERGENCY BRIEFING on May 20th
On Wednesday, May 20th, Tom Dyson and Bill Bonner are holding an Emergency Investment Summit. They’ll answer one of the most popular questions right now: Where is the market going next this year, and how bad could things get? One thing you should know right now: Forget about regular stocks. During their free event on May 20th, they’ll cover: The #1 place to put your money today. And why one expert (who warned about the crash of 2020) says it could make you 10 times your money. Plus… They’ll be joined by a very special guest: The leader of an underground research firm that predicted 9/11… the dot-com meltdown… and more. |
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The Most Contrarian Idea in the Markets Back to the trade I mentioned... What it comes down to is something I’ve been warning about in these Postcards for months: inflation. The inflation trade is the most contrarian, most unexpected, most dismissed trading idea in the markets right now. Bloomberg Businessweek published this magazine cover in April 2019: 
The Economist published this one in October 2019: 
Magazine covers show what ideas are winning in popular investing culture. Right now, deflation owns the narrative war and it may still have legs. But eventually, the tide will turn. When it does, trillions of dollars will come charging out of the bond markets, where they’ve fled to for safety over the past two months. Relative to other asset classes, industrial commodities are the cheapest they’ve been in 100 years. My hypothesis is that, of the capital that comes out of the bond markets, much of it will go into commodities markets. As I said, it may take a while for the deflation narrative to die… But uh oh… What’s this? The prices U.S. consumers paid for groceries jumped 2.6% in April, the highest monthly jump in food prices since February 1974. Could the tide be starting to turn? My Favorite Way to Play It My favorite industrial commodity play right now is shipping. The shipping industry is cyclical. It responds to supply and demand. Currently, there are pockets of the shipping industry where you can buy ships at an 80% discount to their market values. You can buy modern ships trading near their scrap values. It’s the most hated, ignored, depressed industry in the stock market. There are three main categories of shippers: energy, containers, and dry bulk. I’ve written about the energy segment before – namely, oil tankers. (Catch up here, here, and here.) The dry bulk segment is mainly concerned with hauling iron ore from Brazil to China. It’s getting absolutely hammered… From the FreightWaves magazine: After plunging 21% on Monday to $3,842/day, which was awful enough, Capesize drybulk shipping rates have just crashed down another 25% on Tuesday, to $2,893/day. Can you imagine being able to hire a giant bulker for $3,000 a day? Kate and I should rent one for a day, get married on it, and then throw a big party on board… If inflation returns, ships will do extremely well. But with how hated and depressed the industry is, you have to be very brave to invest in it now… – Tom Dyson P.S. Here’s Miles (10) watching for Stinky Pete while enjoying his milk… 
P.P.S. Going back to our gold strategy… As you know, I’m “all in.” In fact, I’ve invested nearly $1 million of my own money into this idea. In these Postcards, I’ve written before about the benefits of buying bullion. But there’s much more to our strategy than that. On Wednesday, May 20, I’m sharing the details in an urgent briefing. Save your spot right here. Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [email protected]. FROM THE MAILBAG One reader gives Tom advice… and shares his own road trip stories… Reader comment: Dear Tom, on your upcoming wanderings thru the western U.S., don’t forget that big hole in the ground called the Grand Canyon! It is so big that if one were to cut the New England states off at sea level, it would take most of them to fill that hole! It is mind boggling to stand on the South Rim at 6,000 feet elevation, looking horizontally across to the North Rim, and realizing that the North Rim is about 2,000 ft. higher up!
In 1972, my wife and I went to southwest Saskatchewan to visit my mother’s newly discovered family. While visiting, we noticed that we were nearly halfway to Alaska. So we drove to and camped in Fairbanks and Anchorage. On the way back, we came down thru British Columbia and down our west coast to Los Angeles before returning home! It was our “great adventure” and as the years passed, we continued to be both satisfied and happy to have those memories! Meanwhile, another reader expresses concern for Tom… Reader comment: The more one reads your recent postings, the more it seems you are crossing back to your old path (i.e. the selling/pitching). Be careful you don’t fall into the same pattern that got you in trouble in the first place. It was so refreshing when you started writing Postcards from the Fringe, showing honesty/self-awareness about your struggles, choices, and journey. Your redemption was being on the road with your family, living a simple, unencumbered life with no real plans and expectations. Now, you plan to jump back into the mainstream (i.e. “premium service”). Be mindful… Habit and denial are mysterious forces. Tom’s note: We read every message you send. Please keep writing us at [email protected]. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… America’s #1 Investor Reveals the Truth About “Billionaire’s New Tech” The rich rarely reveal their secrets… But in a stunning new report from UBS, 200 of the richest families on earth – worth an average $1.2 BILLION – let slip they believe a new technology will “fundamentally change the way we invest.” “You can feel the electricity,” said one of the families. “It’s almost like what you felt in the 1990s with the Internet.” One of America’s most esteemed (and successful) investors recently met with 4 different billionaires. And he reveals the truth about this revolutionary new technology. As well as what it means for regular investors… See the billionaire’s “top tech” investment here… 
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