| Dear 10th Man Reader, Lots of people experienced a lot of pain on the short volatility explosion this week. I hope you weren’t one of them. Regardless, it’s time to get ready for what’s next. The short-vol trade worked for years, so people piled in. Like Taleb’s turkey, that had a great life... until the day before Thanksgiving. I did a minor victory lap on this in yesterday’s 10th Man, so I’ll keep it short here: In The Daily Dirtnap last June (and The 10th Man last August), I made a specific crash prediction on account of the short-vol trade—exactly what happened. I reiterated the warning pretty regularly, while positioning the portfolio accordingly. The market is now returning to normal, but a lot of people don’t know what normal looks like. There is a lot more to come. Maybe it’s time to join us at The Daily Dirtnap? I actually said in The Daily Dirtnap on September 5, “I’m not long bitcoin or short vol. I have a portfolio that benefits if those two trades get hammered.” So, subscribers who took my advice (energy... base metals... oil... Europe) are pretty happy right now. Made for Smart Investors I’m not sure if you know much about The Daily Dirtnap, but I started it in 2008 after I left Lehman Brothers, as a daily commentary and analysis letter. It has around 3,000 subscribers now, but it still runs like an underground newspaper: I hammer out three pages every day and send them directly to you (including the occasional typo), and there’s a lot of back and forth with readers. And sure, I’ll share what tickers I’m buying, but you won’t see black-and-white trade recommendations. You won’t see “buy X of Y.” Also, we always talk about the trade ideas that would get you laughed off the set of CNBC. (About a 40% return on a Turkey index fund was a great example of that.) Here’s what you get with Dirtnap: | Actionable advice: There’s no handholding, but plenty of discussion about trade ideas—and I share updates on The Daily Dirtnap portfolio when needed. | | Guidance on when to run: A lot of people invest in things that can potentially do a lot of damage (like the overcrowded short-vol trade). In The Daily Dirtnap, I share my thoughts on what I’m staying away from, and why. | | The experience of a bear market veteran: I’ve traded through a couple of bear markets. We’re now entering a third. | | More efficiency: When a big market move is happening, you don’t want to be frantically trying to figure out what’s actually going on. With The Daily Dirtnap, you’ll get the information you need to know early (almost) every business morning. | | More preparation: I warned my Daily Dirtnap subscribers about the potential effects of an unwind of the short-vol trade months ago. It literally played out exactly as I’d called it. It’s not my first big call, and it won’t be my last. | | Daily entertainment: My goal is to make my commentary a joy to read, in addition to being super-smart and timely as hell. |
You don’t get a money-back guarantee. Or a discount. So that means I’m not enticing you to sign up now, right? Marketing fail. But what’s happening in the markets should be enough for you to consider subscribing today. It’s the return of normal market conditions, a world where stocks don’t just go up every day. The Daily Dirtnap readers are ready. I think we’re going to see in the coming months just how many people are not ready. Also, while I would like it if a lot more people joined the 3,000 or so Dirtnap subscribers, I’m not here to try and entice people who would not enjoy and benefit from it. The Daily Dirtnap is its own animal. Commit to reading it every day, and I can honestly say it will do wonders for your understanding of market behavior. You’ll get to understand the market as a kind of intelligent being that will try to cause as much pain to as many people as possible at any given moment in time. You’ll be hooked. And your portfolio will thank you for it... a lot. What Comes Next On February 6, I started talking to The Daily Dirtnap subscribers about what comes next. This is where it gets exciting, and this is where it becomes clear that paying a couple of dollars for each issue of The Daily Dirtnap is actually incredibly economical. Look, I like The Wall Street Journal, but here was its headline the other day: Do you think it’s better to read that article on February 6, 2018, or to have gotten the warning in The Daily Dirtnap in June 2017? Time to get ahead of the news. I hope you decide to join us.
Jared Dillian
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