NFP Crushes Forecasts; Bonds React About Like You'd Expect

This week has brought a series of fairly simple mornings with the initial reaction to economic reports playing out in a logical direction. Monday: stronger ISM pushed rates higher. Tuesday: stronger JOLTS caused heavy selling. Wednesday: weaker ADP helped bonds recover. Thursday: stronger claims led to initial selling pressure. Now today, the biggest report of the week is unsurprisingly producing the biggest result. Time to reset the clock on waiting for econ data to make a case for friendlier Fed policy and a better rate outlook.

October 6, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary NFP Crushes Forecasts; Bonds React About Like You'd Expect This week has brought a series of fairly simple mornings with the initial reaction to economic reports playing out in a logical direction. Monday: stronger ISM pushed rates higher. Tuesday: stronger JOLTS caused heavy selling. Wednes... (read more) Rob Chrisman TPO, Correspondent, Compliance, UW, Accounting Products; Conventional News; Employment Drives Rates Higher National MI turned heads yesterday by announcing its temporary increase to AUS conforming loan amounts, despite the official FHFA word not coming until the end of November. (More below on the amounts.) Our biz is filled with “numbers people,” good or... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.81% +0.12% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.81% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.12% +0.11 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.22% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.90% +0.16 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.12% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.24% +0.10 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/6 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.12% +0.11% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.49% +0.18 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.78% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/5 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.41% +0.10 0.71 15 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.11 1.17 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.34% +0.02 0.78 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/27 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 97.63 -0.33 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 97.63 -0.33 GNMA 6.0 98.11 -0.25 Pricing as of: 10/6 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.7990 +0.0800 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.090 +0.065 5 YR Treasury 4.760 +0.071 7 YR Treasury 4.809 +0.078 10 YR Treasury 4.799 +0.080 30 YR Treasury 4.962 +0.071 Pricing as of: 10/6 5:31PM EST Latest Video The 'urban doom loop' threatening American cities like New York and San Fra... Home affordability initiatives need to come at the fiscal level, says MBS L... The market is probably more data-dependent than the Fed at this point, says... The market is adjusting to the Fed's higher-for-longer reality, says Roger ... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September; Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales at New Cycle Low in September CNBC Payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, much more than expected Calculated Risk Blog Comments on September Employment Report Eye on Housing Strong Job Gains in September Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking: Moving on up! MBA What Will the Mortgage Industry Do with Generative AI? Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased 1.0% in September; Down 3.9% Year-over-year Reuters Rise in bond yields builds case for Fed hold, Daly says CNBC U.S. jobless claims increase slightly to 207,000 for the week Calculated Risk Blog September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2.6% YoY; New Listings Down 1.2% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit decreased to $58.3 Billion in August Reuters Fed's Goolsbee Does Not See Rise in Long-Term Yields Imperiling Soft Landing

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