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| Monday, October 23, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| It looks like we've finally figured out the secret to how the Broncos can be good this year: They just need to play an NFC North team every week. After Sunday's 19-17 win over the Packers, the Broncos are now 2-0 against the NFC North and 0-5 against everyone else. Sean Payton now just needs to call someone at the NFL and work a few favors to try and get his schedule changed so that the Broncos are playing an NFC North team every week. |
| Based on the fact that the Broncos aren't very good this year, that will probably be the last time we talk about them today, but we will be talking about plenty of other teams, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Today's Show: Biggest questions after Week 7 |
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| If I sound tired right now, it's because I stayed up until 3 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. |
| The three of us touched on our 10 biggest takeaways from Week 7 and here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer: |
| Can we trust the Dolphins against good teams? Right now, I think the answer to this question is no. The Dolphins have played two teams this year that have a winning record and they've lost those two games by an average of 21 points. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they're only scheduled to play ONE team that currently has a winning record between now and Dec. 23 (That game will be against the Chiefs in Week 9). Based on that, I feel very good about Miami's chances of making the playoffs, but not very good about they're chances to advance very far. Are the Ravens the best team in the AFC? The Ravens absolutely destroyed the Lions on Sunday in a 38-6 win, the same Lions team that beat the Chiefs back in Week 1. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken running the show, the Ravens offense seems to get better every week. However, we all agreed that they're not quite the top team in the AFC yet. I have the Ravens slotted in at No. 2 behind the Chiefs. Do the Browns have a QB problem? The short answer here is yes and the long answer is also yes. Deshaun Watson can't stay healthy, but even when he's been healthy, he hasn't looked that good. With Watson out, the Browns have been turning to P.J. Walker, who has been serviceable, but it's hard to see the Browns winning any playoff games with either Walker or Watson at QB, no matter how good their defense plays. |
| To check out the rest of our takeaways from Week 7, be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
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| 2. Week 7 grades: Raiders get an 'F' after ugly loss to Bears |
| Every week I team up with four of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, the Raiders failed out of our imaginary football school. |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
| Bears 30-12 over Raiders (Click here for full game stats, analysis) |
| Raiders takeaway: If you're wondering why Brian Hoyer has never really made it as a starter in the NFL, just watch this game. With Jimmy Garoppolo out, Hoyer was forced to start and he had a nightmare performance. Not only did he throw for just 129 yards, but he also threw two interceptions, including a pick-six. Coach Josh McDaniels could have gone with rookie Aidan O'Connell as his starter, but he decided that Hoyer was the better option. The Raiders offense sputtered, the special teams struggled and their defense couldn't stop a rookie QB. This was an ugly showing by a team that had a chance to move above .500. Grade: FBears takeaway: With rookie QB Tyson Bagent making his first career start, not much was expected of the Bears offense on Sunday, but they put on a show. Bagent was efficient on a day where he threw for 162 yards and a TD, but it was the Bears' ground game that did the dirty work. D'Onta Foreman (89 yards, two touchdowns) led a rushing attack that steamrolled the Raiders for 173 yards. The Bears defense was also impressive in a game where they forced three turnovers, including a pick-six by Jaylon Johnson that essentially iced the win. The Bears have now won two of their past three games following an 0-4 start. Grade: A+ |
| Browns 39-38 over Colts (Click here for full game stats, analysis) |
| Browns takeaway: Myles Garrett almost single-handedly carried the Browns to a win in this game. Although the Browns defense struggled at times, that doesn't apply to Garrett, who had two strip-sacks and a blocked field goal in the first half alone. The two forced fumbles by Garrett led to two touchdowns for the Browns. Offensively, the Browns weren't great, but P.J. Walker did do just enough to help Cleveland win the game. Walker, who was playing for an injured Deshaun Watson, threw for 57 yards on Cleveland's game-winning drive that was capped by a Kareem Hunt TD with just 15 seconds left. The win is definitely a positive thing for Cleveland, but Browns still have a lot of questions to answer at quarterback. Grade: B Colts takeaway: The Colts got the full Gardner Minshew experience on Sunday. The good part of that experience: Minshew threw for 305 yards while also totaling four touchdowns. The bad part of that experience: Minshew turned the ball over FOUR times, including a second-quarter fumble that Cleveland returned for a TD and a fourth-quarter lost fumble that clinched the loss for Indy. The Colts did get some huge performances from Jonathan Taylor (120 total yards) and Josh Downs (five catches for 125 yards), but it wasn't enough to overcome the team's multiple mistakes. Although the Colts lost, it does feel like this team is good enough to compete for a division title, especially after dropping 38 points on the vaunted Browns defense. Grade: B- |
| As for all the other grades that we handed out on Sunday, you can check those out by clicking here. |
| 3. 11 crazy facts from Week 7: Belichick hits 300 wins |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 11 crazy facts about Week 7: |
Belichick finally hits 300 wins. With the Patriots' 29-25 upset win over the Bills, Bill Belichick now has 300 regular-season wins for his career, making him just the third coach in NFL history to reach that mark. Belichick joins Don Shula (328) and George Halas (318). Lamar lights up the Lions. With his big game against the Lions, Lamar Jackson became the first player in Ravens history to finish with at least 350 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in a single-game.
Lions get walloped in the first half. The Lions were trailing the Ravens 28-0 at halftime, which we're only bringing up because it was tied for the largest halftime deficit in NFL history by a team with the best record in the league in Week 7 or later. High-scoring Colts still lose. The Colts lost 39-38 to the Browns, which ties the franchise record for the most points they've ever scored in a loss. The last time they scored 38 in a loss came all the way back in 1974.Magical Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback threw four touchdowns against the Chargers, which marks the 17th time in his career that he's thrown at least four TD passes in a game. That passes Dan Marino for the most in NFL history before a player hits age 30. Kelce crushes the Chargers. Travis Kelce caught 12 passes for 179 yards against the Chargers, marking the fifth time in his career that he's gone over 150. That's the second most for any tight end in NFL history, trailing only Shannon Sharpe, who did it six times. Super Chiefs . The Chiefs were the 18th defending Super Bowl champion to lose in Week 1, but they've now accomplished something the other 17 teams didn't. They're the first reigning champ to win their next six games following an opening-week loss (via ESPN Stats and Info). Sam can't stop getting sacked. Sam Howell got sacked six times against the Giants, which means he's now been sacked 40 times on the season. That's the second-highest total in NFL history through seven weeks, trailing only David Carr, who was sacked 43 times through seven games in 2002.Cardinals can't score in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals have only scored seven points in the fourth quarter this season, which is the fewest through seven games since 1995 when the Jets scored just three. Garrett goes nuts . Myles Garrett had a huge game. With his performance against the Colts, the Browns star became the first player since at least 2000 to finish a game with two sacks, two forced fumbles and a blocked field goal. Long-distance Dustin. Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins hit three field goals of 50 yards or more against the Colts, which means he has now hit a field goal of 50 yards or longer in five straight games, which is an NFL record. |
| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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| 4. NFL Week 7 winners and losers: The Lions hype train crashes into a brick wall |
| You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
| Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, which you can check out below. |
| Winners |
| Bill Belichick. "Just when you thought his reign might be nearing its end, Bill Belichick's one-win Patriots frustrated and upset Josh Allen and the Bills hours after a report surfaced about him quietly landing a lucrative multiyear contract extension this offseason."Tyson Bagent. "Plenty of folks wrote off the Bears after Justin Fields exited Week 6 with an injury, leaving an already-shaky offense in murky water. They didn't account for Tyson Bagent, the undrafted rookie out of Division II Shepherd, bringing veteran-level swagger to make light work of the Raiders."Sean Payton. "Houston's 'D' once again proved tough, containing Alvin Kamara and limiting Derek Carr and Co. to 13 points. New Orleans may not be great, but for the Texans to be sitting at 3-3 after Ryans' first six games is impressive." |
| Losers |
| Brett Maher. "The Rams kicker entered Week 7 tied for second in field goals made (16), but he left with multiple misses for the third time this season, dropping his season conversion percentage to 74, one of the worst in the NFL."The NFC South. "The Falcons edged the Buccaneers in their afternoon slugfest, but did anyone really win? Desmond Ridder fumbled not once but three times inside the red zone, Baker Mayfield begged Atlanta to make late-game picks until they finally did, and the rivals are now a combined 7-6 after seven weeks, totally unwilling -- more like unable -- to transcend ugly game-flow. ...The 0-6 Panthers probably fared the best of all the South teams, considering they didn't have a chance to lose while on their bye."The Lions hype train. "You might've argued before Week 7 that Detroit was the NFL's most balanced contender this side of the 49ers. But all their momentum came to a screeching halt in Baltimore, where Jared Goff's offensive line finally folded and Lamar Jackson cruised his way to a three-touchdown performance in a 38-6 Ravens blowout." |
| If you want to see Cody's full list of winners and losers, be sure to click here. |
| 5. Monday preview: Prepping you for 49ers at Vikings |
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| Tonight's game is being played in Minnesota, which isn't great news for a Vikings team that hasn't won a single game at home this year. As a matter of fact, the Vikings are one of just two teams -- along with the 0-6 Panthers -- that has yet to win a home game. Picking up their first home victory of the season won't be easy tonight and that's because they'll be facing a 49ers team that is currently favored by seven points. |
| My good buddy Jared Dubin put together our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Why the 49ers can win: the Niners are beat up on offense -- Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are out for tonight and Christian McCaffrey listed as questionable -- they're completely healthy on defense, so it's going to be important for that side of the ball to have a huge game. The 49ers are surrendering just 14.3 points per game over the past four weeks and if they keep the Vikings around that number, they should be able to come away with a win no matter how banged up the offense is. The 49ers defense is also only surrendering 278 yards per game, which is the best number in the NFC. This team should be able to slow down Kirk Cousins and a Vikings offense that won't have Justin Jefferson. Why the Vikings can win: The Vikings are going to need a miracle game from Kirk Cousins, who tends to struggle on Monday nights. Over the course of his career, Cousins has played in 12 Monday games and he's gone just 2-10. If Cousins can play mistake-free football, the Vikings will have a chance to win, especially if they can turn this into a slugfest. The 49ers offense won't be at 100%, so if the Vikings defense can take advantage of that by holding San Francisco under 20 points, Minnesota will absolutely have a chance to win. Basically, the Vikings need to steal the Browns' defensive game plan from Week 7, which won't be easy because Cleveland has way more talent on its defense. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Jared by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here's one prop I like: |
| ONE PROP I LIKE: Jake Moody OVER 2.5 extra points (+110). The 49ers kicker has gone over this number in five of San Francisco's six games this year, and I think he'll have a good chance to hit it tonight. After struggling to just score 17 points last week, I think the 49ers offense will be out for blood to prove their 17-point performance against Cleveland was a fluke. The fact that this is available at plus money makes it even more enticing. |
| My prime-time prop record is 10-4 this year. |
| Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: |
Jared's pick: 49ers 26-13 over Vikings
My pick: 49ers 24-13 over Vikings |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of us are taking the 49ers to win, but only six of us are taking them to cover. |
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| 6. Extra points: Belichick gets contract extension |
| It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Bill Belichick landed a contract extension during the offseason. Although we all thought Bill Belichick was on the hot seat heading into Week 7, maybe that wasn't actually the case. Before New England's win over the Bills on Sunday, it was reported that Belichick signed a lucrative contract extension PRIOR to the start of the season. Maybe Belichick was never on the hot seat and the Patriots are just making fools out of all of us. Deebo Samuel to miss multiple games. Not only will the 49ers star be missing tonight's game against the Vikings, but he'll also been ruled out for San Francisco's Week 8 game against the Bengals. You can read more about Samuel's shoulder injury here.
Deshaun Watson dealing with an injury. The Browns QB was knocked out of Sunday's game after taking a hard hit that forced him into concussion protocol. Although Watson cleared the protocol, he didn't end up returning to the game. Kevin Stefanski seems confident that Watson will be able to start in Week 8 against Seattle, but based on the QB's recent injury history, that's certainly not guaranteed. Raiders won't be trading Davante Adams. Even if Adams wants out, the Raiders have no plans of trading their star receiving before the NFL's Oct. 31 deadline, according to ESPN.com. The Raiders have apparently let other teams know that they're "not interested" in trading Adams. Also, at 3-4, the Raiders are just one game out of the final playoff spot in the AFC, so there's no need for them to have any sort of fire sale right now. |
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