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| Monday, September 30, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| After 14 straight hours of watching football yesterday, I thought for sure that I'd be burnt out on football, but I am not. However, I can understand if Jaguars fans have already given up on the season. After losing to the Texans on Sunday, the Jaguars are now the only 0-4 left in the NFL although the Titans could join them if they lose tonight. |
| The good news for the Titans is they're not paying their quarterback $275 million, so if things fall apart this season, they can blow everything up and start over at that position, but that won't be so easy to do for Jacksonville. The Titans will be playing in one of the two Monday games tonight and we'll be previewing both of those in today's newsletter. Also, we'll have some winners and losers from Week 4, plus we'll be handing out grades for every team. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. NFL Week 4 grades: Commanders get rare 'A+,' Jaguars get same grade as Texans |
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| You guys don't have to call me Professor Breech, but that's what I call myself during the NFL season since I'm in charge of handing out the grades for every game. There have been 14 games played in Week 3 so far, and we've graded them all. |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
| Commanders 42-14 over Cardinals (Click here for full recap) |
| Commanders takeaway: There's usually an adjustment period for rookie quarterbacks in the NFL, but apparently, that's not the case for Jayden Daniels. After dicing up the Bengals in Week 3, Daniels played another nearly perfect game, completing 86.7% of his passes for 233 yards and a TD, plus he also ran for another TD on top of that. The Commanders also topped 200 yards rushing for the second time this season, which is something they did exactly zero times in 2023. This a nice win for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who got to beat the team that once fired him. Washington's biggest weakness this season has been its defense, but that wasn't a weakness in Arizona. The Commanders suddenly look like the most unstoppable team in the NFL. Grade: A+ Cardinals takeaway: The Cardinals had one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL through the first two weeks, but it has now sputtered in two straight games. Going up against a Commanders defense that had surrendered the third-most points in the NFL through three weeks, the Cards should have been able to get something going, but things quickly fell apart after Kyler Murray led his team to a TD on their opening drive. As bad as the offense was, the defense was worse. This feels like a team that's starting to fall apart after just four weeks. Grade: F |
| Texans 24-20 over Jaguars (Click here for full game stats) |
| Jaguars takeaway: The winless Jaguars gave Trevor Lawrence a $275 million contract back in June, and so far, they're probably not too thrilled with their investment. The Jaguars QB had another ugly day, throwing for just 169 yards while completing just 54.5% of his passes. Quarterbacks earn a lot of their money with how they play in the fourth quarter, but Lawrence was not clutch against Houston, completing just 2 of 7 passes for 1 yard in the final quarter. The Jaguars have plenty of other problems, but if Lawrence keeps struggling, it's hard to see them getting anything turned around. Lawrence has now lost nine straight starts. Grade: B-Texans takeaway: C.J. Stroud was the hero of this game for Houston. The Texans QB threw a 1-yard TD pass to Dare Ogunbowale with just 18 seconds left to cap off the win. Stroud was nearly unstoppable in the fourth quarter, completing 10 of 14 passes for 113 yards and a TD. Nico Collins continues to play like an absolute star and the Jags got a first-hand look as he caught 12 passes for 151 yards and a TD. The Texans defense did struggle to stop the run -- it gave up 158 yards -- and that could be a small concern going forward, but right now, Houston handily looks like the best team in the AFC South. Grade: B- |
| As for the other 24 grades that I handed out in Week 4, you can check those out by clicking here. |
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| 2. NFL Week 4 winners and losers: Jets offense sputters in loss |
| You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
| Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list and we're going to check out his losers below. |
| LOSERS |
| Nick Sirianni-Jalen Hurts combo (Eagles lose 33-16 to Buccaneers). "The Eagles' defense will get raked over the coals for surrendering 33 points to Baker Mayfield and Co., and missed tackles were again a glaring issue, but the bigger concern is the duo running the ship. Playing without your top two wideouts hurts, especially when those two wideouts also happen to be among the NFL's best, but Hurts has now been hit or miss in the majority of his three-plus seasons under Sirianni, whose offense continues to look erratic and sluggish at the start of games." The Jets offense (Jets lose 10-9 to Broncos). "It didn't take long for the magic of Aaron Rodgers to dwindle in gloomy weather against the Denver Broncos. Fresh off a scrappy but promising two-game win streak, Rodgers was much more human in an ugly, rain-soaked defeat behind an even uglier offensive line. He's still got the arm to guide a contender in today's NFL, but at 40, on admittedly banged-up legs, can A-Rod survive this setup?"The Chiefs' offensive depth chart (Chiefs win 17-10 over Chargers). "Kansas City stayed undefeated by edging the rival Los Angeles Chargers, but it came at a cost. No. 1 wideout Rashee Rice went down with a potentially serious knee injury, leaving Andy Reid to once again consider outside insurance for the offensive lineup. Isiah Pacheco also remains sidelined indefinitely." |
| If you want to see Cody's list of winners, be sure to click here. |
| 3. 14 crazy facts from Week 4: Jayden Daniels makes NFL history |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 14 crazy facts about Week 4: |
Jayden Daniels makes NFL history. Daniels completed 86.7% of his passes against the Cardinals, making him the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 85% of his passes in two consecutive games (with a minimum of 15 attempts). Daniels completed 91.3% of his passes in Week 3 against the Bengals. Commanders can't be stopped. With 42 points against the Cardinals, the Commanders have registered back-to-back games with at least 38 points, marking the first time since 1991 they've pulled that off. The 1991 season also happens to be the last time the Commanders went to the Super Bowl. Another notable Washington stat: At 3-1, the Commanders are over .500 through four games for the first time since 2011. Comeback kids. The Chiefs are 4-0, which isn't exactly surprising, but they have trailed by at least a touchdown in all four games, making them just the third team in NFL history to start 4-0 despite trailing by at least seven points in all four games. Vikings might be Super Bowl contenders. With their win over the Packers, the Vikings became the first team in NFL history to win three straight games without trailing against teams that all won a playoff game in the prior season. Sam Darnold joins impressive club. With 11 TD passes through four weeks, Darnold is now just the fifth QB in NFL history to lead his team to a 4-0 start while also throwing for at least 10 total TD passes in those four wins. Darnold joins Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Kurt Warner (Rams), Jeff George (Vikings) and Vinny Testaverde (Jets). Giants and Jets can't score at MetLife Stadium. Both New York teams played at home in Week 4, and neither team scored a TD. This week marked the 57th time they've both played at home in the same week and the first time ever that neither team scored a TD. The two teams have been playing in the same stadium since 1984.Fabulous Flacco. Joe Flacco threw two TD passes against the Steelers, which means he's now thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight games. Somehow, that's the longest active streak by any QB in the NFL. Matthew Stafford cracks the top 10 list for most passing yards. The Rams quarterback needed 222 yards to tie Eli Manning for the 10th-most passing yards in NFL history and he got 224. Stafford now has 57,025 yards over the course of his career. Aaron Rodgers is ninth on the list, so Stafford likely won't be moving up again this season. Big week for rookie quarterbacks. With the Bears, Broncos and Commanders all winning, that means Caleb Williams, Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels were all winners on Sunday. This marks just the third time in NFL history that three rookie quarterbacks won in the same week during the first four weeks of the season. The only other times that it's happened came in 2012 and 2016. Home sweet home for Caleb Williams. The Bears rookie quarterback is now 2-0 at home after Chicago's win over the Rams. That's notable, because it makes Williams the first No. 1 overall pick in NFL history to win the first two home starts of his rookie year. Xavier McKinney is racking up the interceptions. The Packers safety has at least one interception in four straight games to start the season. That makes McKinney the first player in 29 years to open the season with an interception in four straight games while playing for a new team. The last player to pull this off was Otis Smith, who did it for the Jets in 1995. Run, Derrick, Run. Derrick Henry scored on an 87-yard TD against the Bills, which was the longest scoring run in franchise history. The Ravens running back also became the first player in franchise history to rush for at least 175 yards in a game WITH a rushing TD and a receiving TD. Henry finished with 199 yards against the Bills. Running over everyone. The Ravens out-rushed the Bills by 190 yards on Sunday night, and because of that, they are now the first team in NFL history to outrush their opponents by 100 yards or more in each of their first four games. Baltimore has been led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who have combined for 788 rushing yards, which is the most in NFL history by a QB/RB duo through four weeks
Slye guy. Patriots kicker Joey Slye hit a 63-yard field goal against the 49ers, which is tied for the fourth-longest field goal in NFL history. Although we've seen longer kicks over the past few years from Justin Tucker (66) and Brandon Aubrey (65), Slye's kick was the longest field goal made by any kicker in an OUTDOOR game since 2018. It also set the Patriots' franchise record for longest field goal. You can see Slye's big kick here |
| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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| 4. NFL Week 4 overreactions: Should the Browns bench Deshaun Watson? |
| Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 4 to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Statement: Commanders are going to win the NFC East.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "While Washington may not be the most complete team, they do lead the NFC East after four weeks with a 3-1 record. The Commanders are going to be a problem in the NFC East, but we'll have to wait and see what they do against Philadelphia and Dallas." |
Statement: Doug Pederson will be the first coach fired.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Jaguars fell to the Texans Sunday to fall to 0-4, certainly not the start this franchise envisioned a month ago. Jacksonville is 1-9 in its past 10 games after starting last season with an 8-3 record, the only win in that span was a 26-0 win over the Panthers in Week 17 last year. ... The Jaguars are inconsistent week-to-week, but they have a chance to salvage the season with the Colts, Bears and Patriots coming up. Anything less than 2-1 and Pederson may be gone." |
Statement: Browns should bench Deshaun Watson.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Browns are paying Watson $230 million guaranteed to play football at a high level, but they aren't getting that caliber of play. ... It may be time for the Browns to give up on the Watson experiment. Watson has completed 61.5% of his passes, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, and has a 74.4 rating through four games. This play just isn't good enough, and the browns are 1-3 as a result." |
| There are plenty more overreactions from Week 4, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. |
| 5. The Monday night doubleheader is back for a second straight week: We've got two games tonight |
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| The NFL is throwing a curveball at us tonight by giving us a Monday night doubleheader for the second straight week. If you're wondering why this is happening, it's one of the perks that ESPN got in its new media contract with the NFL. This is the second of four Monday doubleheaders on the year. After tonight, the next one will come in Week 7 with the final one coming in Week 15. |
| The first game of the doubleheader tonight will feature Tennessee at Miami in a game that kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. |
| Jordan Dajani put a preview together for this game, and here's how he sees things playing out: |
| Why the Titans can win: If Will Levis can stop giving the ball to the other team, the Titans might be able to come out of tonight's game with a win. Levis has turned the ball over eight times through three weeks, which is the most in the NFL. The Titans QB keeps committing back-breaking turnovers that Tennessee just can't recover from. The Titans defense is only giving up 263.7 yards per game, which is one of the best numbers in the NFL, but they're not getting any help from Levis. If he cuts down on the turnovers and the Titans take the game out of his hands by getting their run game going, they might be able to win. Why the Dolphins can win: It's only Week 4, but the Dolphins will already be starting their third quarterback of the season with Tyler Huntley under center tonight. That actually could be an advantage for Miami, because it does give it the element of surprise. Mike McDaniel should be able to design an offense that will take advantage of Huntley's athleticism. If Huntley looks comfortable running McDaniel's high-powered offense, then the Dolphins could have a surprisingly big night. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dajani by clicking here. Even with a new starting QB under center, the Dolphins are still favored by 2.5 points over the winless Titans. |
| In the late game, we've got the Detroit Lions hosting the 3-0 Seahawks at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC. |
| Jared Dubin put a preview together for that game, and here's how he sees things playing out: |
| Why the Seahawks can win: If the Seahawks offensive line can slow down Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions' pass rush, that will put Geno Smith in a spot where he'll be able to take advantage of a Lions defense that's surrendering more than 215 passing yards per game. The Seahawks have the weapons to have a huge passing night with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but stopping Hutchinson, who has 6.5 sacks in just three games, won't be easy. Why the Lions can win: The Seahawks have a secondary that matches up well with Detroit's pass-catchers, so if the Lions are going to avoid an upset tonight, they're likely going to need a big game from both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. If those two get going, that will set up everything else the Lions do on offense like play-action passes, which is something that Jared Goff thrives at. It will be interesting to see if the Lions decide to test Seattle's pass defense. Although the Seahawks were giving up the fewest passing yards in the NFL through three weeks, they've only faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skyler Thompson, so this will be their first true test of the season. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. The Lions are currently a four-point home favorite against the undefeated Seahawks. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. |
ONE PROP I LIKE FROM DOLPHINS-TITANS: Will Levis OVER 15.5 rushing yards (+100 at BetMGM) Levis has turned into quite the rushing weapon over the past two weeks. In Week 2, he ran for 38 yards and then he followed that up in Week 3 by rushing for 36 yards. If a play isn't there or if it starts to break down, he usually takes off. He's had two runs this year of more than 15 yards, so he might be able to hit this on one rush. ONE PROP I LIKE FROM SEAHAWKS-LIONS: David Montgomery OVER 73.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM): The Lions running back is averaging 77 yards per game on the ground, which means he could hit the over by just running the ball, but with this prop, you also get his receiving yards. Montgomery has hit 93 yards from scrimmage in two of Detroit's three games this season and I won't be surprised if he gets near that number again.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Jason Myers OVER 6.5 points (-135 at BetMGM): Dating back to last season, Myers has gone over this total in six of his past seven games and that number would have been seven of seven if he didn't miss a field goal in Week 3. Opposing kickers are averaging two field goals per game against the Lions so if Myers can hit that, he'd need just one extra point to hit the over. |
| And in case you're wondering, heading into tonight, my props are 10-7 on the season (5-3 on kicker props and 5-4 on all other props) |
| Of course, we also have some picks for tonight, so let's get to those. |
| PICKS FOR THE 'MNF' DOUBLEHEADER |
TITANS-DOLPHINS PICK
My pick: Titans 20-17 over Dolphins
Dajani's pick: Titans 17-10 over Dolphins
Prisco's pick: Titans 25-21 over Dolphins |
SEAHAWKS-LIONS PICK
My pick: Lions 31-24 over Seahawks
Dubin pick: Lions 24-20 over Seahawks
Prisco's pick: Lions 27-20 over Seahawks |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our eight NFL experts don't really agree on what's going to happen in either of these games. If you want to see who they're taking, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Chiefs lose another weapon |
| It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Rashee Rice likely out for the season. The Chiefs receiver went down with a knee injury against the Chargers and it appears that he tore his ACL. If that's the case, then he'll be done for the season (Details here). The Chiefs have already lost Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco to serious injuries, and now, they're running out of weapons. Nick Chubb expected to return to practice. The Browns dropped to 1-3 with a loss to the Raiders on Sunday, but they did get some good news over the weekend: Nick Chubb is expected to return to practice this week. Chubb might not be on the field in Week 5, but the Browns would probably love to have him back for their two big divisional games coming up in Week 7 (Bengals) and Week 8 (Ravens). Rams hit with $100,000 fine. The Rams got hit with a $100,000 fine for a Week 3 incident where a player on injured reserve got into a scuffle with 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk. You can read about the full details of that situation here. Tom Brady responds to Baker Mayfield's comments. Mayfield said Buccaneers players were stressed out while playing with Brady in Tampa Bay and the seven-time Super Bowl winner had a great response to that. "I thought stressful was not having Super Bowl rings," Brady said, via the Tampa Bay Times. "This wasn't daycare. ... If I was going to have fun, I was going to Disneyland with my kids." You can read more about Brady's comments here. Injury roundup. There were a lot of injuries on Sunday, and we're tracking all of them here. If you click over, you'll read about all the injuries that the Colts are dealing with. Anthony Richardson left Sunday's game with a hip injury while Jonathan Taylor appears to have suffered a high ankle sprain. |
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