| | | | Monday, December 18, 2023 | | Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter and Merry Clinchmas everyone! | | Not only is it one week until Christmas, but it's also playoff-clinching time around the NFL. We saw a total of four teams punch their ticket to the playoffs over the weekend: The Eagles, Cowboys and Ravens have all clinched a playoff spot while the 49ers have clinched the NFC West, which means they'll definitely be getting at least one home playoff game this year (and probably more). | | In the NFC, the Eagles clinched a spot without even playing. The only playoff implications for tonight's game between the Seahawks and Eagles is that if Philadelphia wins, then the LIONS will clinch a playoff spot. On the flip side, there are six teams that have now been eliminated from playoff contention. If you're a fan of the Jets, Titans, Cardinals, Commanders, Panthers or Patriots, you might as well start studying up what free agency is going to look like in 2023. | | OK, now that we've got the playoff stuff out of the way, let's get to the rundown. In today's newsletter, we've got grades for every team that played on Sunday, plus, we've got winners and losers. | | As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. | | 1. Today's Show: Biggest questions after Week 15 | | | | If I fall asleep while writing the newsletter today, it's because I stayed up until 2:19 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. As a general rule of thumb, you should never stay up that late with those two. Nothing good can possibly come out of it. | | Anyway, the three of us touched on our 10 biggest takeaways from Week 15. Here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer: | | Are the Bills the best team in the AFC right now? As crazy as it sounds, I'm going to have to say yes. Right now, the top-three teams in the AFC standings are the Ravens, Dolphins and Chiefs. Well, the Bills already destroyed the Dolphins, they recently beat the Chiefs and if they played the Ravens tomorrow, I'd pick Buffalo to win. Of course, it doesn't matter how hot they are if they miss the playoffs, and that's still a possibility since they're only 8-6. Should Brock Purdy win MVP? At this point, it feels like Purdy is the most deserving of the award even though he somehow seems to be flying under the radar this season. Through 15 weeks, Purdy leads the NFL in QB rating, yards per attempt and he's third in passing touchdowns. Dak Prescott was neck-and-neck with Purdy heading into Week 15, but he got embarrassed by the Bills and it's tough to see him winning the award after that loss. The crazy thing about the MVP race is that Purdy's biggest competition might be his own teammate (Christian McCaffrey), and Purdy actually thinks McCaffrey is the one who should win MVP. Who's going to win the AFC South? The Colts, Jaguars and Texans are currently all tied at 8-6 with just three games left to play. Brinson and I are both on the Jags and that's mostly because they have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL. They close with Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee and there's a real chance we'll see the Jaguars win all of those games. Also, if they just beat the Titans, that will guarantee that they finish with the best division record at 5-1, which will help them win almost any tiebreaker with either the Colts or Texans (They swept the Colts and although they split with the Texans, they'll be guaranteed to finish with a better division record if they beat the Titans in Week 18). | | To check out the rest of our takeaways from Week 15, be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here, which you'll want to do if you want to see my sad Bruno costume. | | | | 2. Week 15 grades: Bills earn an 'A+' for destroying Cowboys | | Every week I team up with four of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, the Bills got the highest grade of any team. | | Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: | | Browns 20-17 over Bears (Click here for full game stats) | | Bears takeaway: No one is better at blowing a big lead than the Bears. For the third time this season, the Bears had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, but still managed to lose. With a 17-7 lead in the fourth, the Bears probably could have put the game away with just one score, but instead, the offense imploded. They had a failed fourth down in the fourth quarter along with three punts. Justin Fields did almost complete a miracle Hail Mary on the final play, but the ball fell out of Darnell Mooney's hands (You can see the play here). Defensively, the Bears played nearly perfect football for three quarters, but then they disappeared during a fourth quarter where the Browns piled up 215 of their 377 yards. The Bears have been on the cusp of getting several big wins this year, but they just haven't been able to close the deal. Grade: CBrowns takeaway: The Browns got the full Joe Flacco experience on Sunday. Flacco almost gave the game away with three interceptions, including a pick-six in the second half, but the Browns QB also came up with some fourth-quarter magic. Flacco threw for 212 yards and his huge quarter helped the Browns score 13 points, including Dustin Hopkins' game-winning field goal from 34 yards. Flacco seems to have quite the connection with David Njoku, who caught 10 passes for 104 yards and a TD. The Browns' defense also deserves a lot of credit for this win. Things could have gotten out of hand with Flacco's turnovers, but the defense made sure that didn't happen. Justin Fields was bottled up on a day where he got sacked three times while being held to under 200 yards of offense. This is a Browns team that has perfected the art of winning ugly, but they're winning and that's all that matters. Grade: C+ | | Bills 31-10 over Cowboys (Click here for full game stats, analysis) | | Cowboys takeaway: "Buffalo punched Dallas over and over and over again with its running game. Sunday marked the first time since Dan Quinn took over as defensive coordinator in 2021 that the Cowboys defense allowed over 250 rushing yards (266). They allowed James Cook to be the first player since 2017 to rack up over 200 scrimmage yards on them. Offensively, they struggled mightily to move the ball without All-Pro right guard Zack Martin, who left the game with a thigh injury in the first half. The Cowboys are at their best when they get an early lead, which then allows Micah Parsons and their defense to tee off on opposing quarterbacks. They allowed the Bills to score an opening-drive touchdown, and they were never able to adjust to playing from behind." -- Tyler Sullivan. Grade: FBills takeaway: "Buffalo outgained Dallas 351 to 195, a gap of 156 yards made up of mostly the Bills' 266 yards on the ground. Running back James Cook did his best Thurman Thomas impersonation. The second-year, second-round pick totaled a career-high 179 rushing yards and a TD on 25 carries with a touchdown. Cook also tallied 42 yards receiving on two catches, including an 18-yard receiving score in the second quarter. That performance makes Cook the first Bills player with 200+ scrimmage yards (221), one or more rushing touchdown and one or more receiving touchdowns in a game since Thomas did so back in the 1991 season. The Bills had the football for over 10 minutes longer than the Cowboys (35:05 to 24:55) and doubled up Dallas in first downs (28 to 14). Quarterback Josh Allen only had seven completions and it didn't matter, the Bills still dominated." -- Garrett Podell. Grade: A+ | | If you're looking for all the other grades that we handed out on Sunday, you can check those out by clicking here. | | 3. 14 crazy stats from Week 15: Jets playoff drought continues | | | | Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild stats about the games that were just played. | | With that in mind, here are 14 of the craziest stats from Week 15: | | Jets playoff drought continues. The Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday, which means they've now gone 13 straight years without making the postseason. Not only is that the longest drought in the NFL, but it's also the longest drought in the four major North American sports.Christian McCaffrey is a scoring machine. With three touchdowns against the Cardinals, McCaffrey now has 30 touchdowns in his first 25 games with the 49ers, which is the second most in NFL history for a player through his first 25 games with a team. Only Gale Sayers, who had 31 with the Bears, had more. McCaffrey scored a total of seven touchdowns this season against the Cardinals, which ties the most by one player against a single team in a single season in the Super Bowl era.From undrafted to awesome. With two rushing touchdowns on Sunday, Raheem Mostert now has 18 for the season, which is tied for the third most by any undrafted player in NFL history. The two scores also gave him 20 total touchdowns for the season, which is a single-season franchise record for the Dolphins.Dolphins dominant defense. The Dolphins surrendered just four yards to the Jets during the first half on Sunday, which is the fewest yards that any team has given up in a first half since December 2015 when the Broncos held the Raiders to -12 yards.Dual-threat record. Josh Allen had a passing TD and a rushing TD against the Cowboys, which is notable, because it marked the 10th time this season that he's had a rushing and passing score in the same game. That gives him the NFL record to himself. Previously, he had been tied with Kyler Murray at nine.Dynamic duo. The 49ers have two players (Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel) who both have at least five rushing touchdowns AND five receiving touchdowns this season. That's notable, because it makes them the first teammates in NFL history to hit both of those numbers in the same season.No one can score on the Saints. New Orleans held the Giants to just six points, marking the second straight week that the Saints have held their opponent under 10 points. That marks the first time since 1991 that the Saints have held their opponents to single digits in consecutive weeks.Bears keep blowing leads. The Bears have lost three games this season where they had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. That's tied for the most in a season in NFL history. The Bears led the Browns 17-7 on Sunday before losing 20-17.Flacco's magical fourth quarter. The Browns QB threw for 212 yards in the fourth quarter against the Bears, which is the most by any Browns QB since at least 1991 and the most by any player in the fourth quarter of any NFL game this year. Flacco also became the first Browns QB to throw for at least 300 yards in back-to-back wins since Brian Sipe in 1980.Browns QB carousel is working. With their win on Sunday, the Browns became the first team since at least 1950 to have four different quarterbacks lead them on a game-winning drive in the same season. Besides Flacco, the Browns also got comeback wins this year from Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Baker pitches perfect game. Baker Mayfield just became the first VISITING QB ever with a perfect passer rating (158.3) at Lambeau Field. With 381 yards and four touchdowns, Baker also became just the third QB in NFL history with at least 375 passing yards along with four or more TD passes and a 158.3 passer rating in a road game, joining Nick Foles (2013 at Oakland) and Ken O'Brien (1986 at Seattle).Jake Browning Is working overtime. With the Bengals picking up another overtime win on Saturday, Jake Browning became the first QB in NFL history to win two of his first four starts in overtime. He also became the first QB in NFL history to throw for at least 1,000 yards with a 75% completion percentage in his first four starts. Browning also became the first Bengals QB to win three of his first four starts since Boomer Esiason in 1984.Lions rookies are roaring. The Lions rookie class combined to score five touchdowns, which is the most in a single game since the Bills in 1979.Derrick Henry hits rock bottom. The Titans running back had 20 touches for just 10 yards against the Texans, making him the first player in NFL history to get the ball at least 20 times in a game without gaining at least 15 yards. Henry had 16 carries for nine yards and four catches for one yards. | | Henry's performance was so bad that it sounds like he's questioning his future with the Titans, and you can read more about that here. | | If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. | | | | 4. NFL Week 15 winners and losers: Bills' playoff hopes are no longer on life support | | You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. | | Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, which you can check out below. | | Winners | | Dolphins' playoff hopes. "Beating the Jets is one thing. Dropping 30 on Robert Saleh's defense on a day Tyreek Hill was unavailable due to injury is another. Not that Miami wasn't already playoff bound, but actually dominating a legit "D" in December is a promising sign for Tua Tagovailoa and Co.'s chances of making a legitimate push."Baker Mayfield's agent. "The Buccaneers may not be a world-beater, but they're on track for a playoff appearance after Mayfield balled out against the slumping Packers defense. His four passing touchdowns give him 24 on the season, which is proof enough that he's overachieved on a so-so team in transition. On a one-year deal, he could be on the fast track to another starting gig in 2024." | | Losers | | The Cowboys' Super Bowl hype. "After suddenly appearing to be in the 49ers' class as an NFC heavyweight, Dak Prescott and Co. crashed back to Earth in Buffalo, where the Bills ran all over Dan Quinn's vaunted defense. It's just a reminder that for all their talent, the 'Boys still have hurdles to clear when it matters most."Kadarius Toney's job security. "This feels like beating a dead horse, but as long as the Chiefs keep trotting Toney out to serve as a real player in Kansas City's receiving corps, he'll be subject to attention. And while his spotty hands didn't cost the team a win against the Patriots, they did keep New England more competitive than necessary, denting his reliability as a Patrick Mahomes outlet even further." | | If you want to see Cody's full list of winners and losers, be sure to click here. | | 5. Monday preview: Prepping you for Eagles at Seahawks | | | | If you love a good mystery, then this is the game for you because we have no idea who the starting QB is going to be for EITHER team tonight. Jalen Hurts has been downgraded to questionable after getting sick over the weekend. As for the Seahawks, Geno Smith is dealing with a groin injury and he's also been listed as questionable. So we could see Smith vs. Hurts, but it's also possible that it will end up being Marcus Mariota against Drew Lock or Smith vs. Mariota, or Lock vs. Hurts. IT'S ALL UP IN THE AIR. | | Another twist to this game is that the Eagles will have a new defensive play-caller. Defensive coordinator Sean Desai was demoted on Sunday in favor of Matt Patricia, who will be calling the defensive plays for Philadelphia. Also, the Eagles won't have starting corner Darius Slay, who recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery. | | My good buddy Jared Dubin put together a deep-dive preview for this game, and here's how he sees things playing out: | | Why the Eagles can win: The good news for the Eagles is that it might not matter who their QB is tonight and that's because Philly might be able to pull out a win by simply running the ball. The Eagles are averaging 124.5 yards per game on the ground, which ranks in the top 10 in the NFL and they'll be going up against a Seahawks defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in stopping the run. The Seahawks are 1-4 this year when they give up more than 135 rushing yards, so the Eagles should feel good about their chances of winning if they can hit that number. The Seahawks have also struggled to stop the pass, which means if Jalen Hurts does play, he could put up some big numbers, and if that happens, you have to like Philly's chances. Why the Seahawks can win: The Seahawks' QB situation is intriguing, because, if Geno Smith does play, he could have a huge game. The Eagles are surrendering 259.9 passing yards per game this year, which is one of the five worst numbers in the NFL. With DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and an emerging Jaxson Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks have the weapons to take advantage of the Eagles' pass defense. If Geno is playing, the Seahawks would probably feel a lot better about their chances of winning, but that doesn't mean Drew Lock can't have success against a struggling Eagles secondary that won't have Darius Slay. | | You can get a full preview of the game from Jared by clicking here. | | If you're thinking about betting on the game, here's the prop I like: | | ONE PROP I LIKE: Jake Elliott OVER 1.5 field goals (+105). The Eagles kicker has hit two field goals in each of his last two games and I won't be surprised if he hits two more tonight. With Jalen Hurts status up in the air due to illness, I could see the Eagles being slightly more conservative on offense tonight, which should lead to more field-goal attempts for Elliott. | | My prime-time prop record is 20-13 this year. | | Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: | Jared's pick: Eagles 27-17 over Seahawks
My pick: Eagles 23-20 over Seahawks | | Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, five of our eight experts have the Eagles covering as a 3.5-point favorite, but three of us are riding the Seahawks to cover (All eight of us are picking Philly to win straight-up). | | | | 6. Extra points: Teddy Bridgewater to retire | | It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. | Teddy Bridgewater to call it quits. The former first-round pick has decided that he's going to retire after the season. Bridgewater is serving as the backup to Jared Goff in Detroit this year. "I'm just really appreciative that I'm in Year 10," Bridgewater told the Detroit Free Press. "I tell everyone this is my last year, so I'm in my final year and I'm just enjoying it all, man." For a closer look at his announcement, be sure to check out our full story here. Nick Mullens expected to start in Week 16. With the Vikings season hanging in the balance, they will once again be turning to Mullens. According to ESPN.com, Mullens is expected to be the starter for Sunday's game against the Lions. In his first start of the season on Saturday, Mullens played reasonably well against the Bengals (302 yards, two touchdowns), but he also threw two back-breaking interceptions. If he can clean that up, the Vikings might have a chance to pull off an upset this week. Joe Flacco wants to play another season. The Browns could have an interesting decision to make at the end of the season and that's because Flacco wants to keep playing. If Flacco were to lead the Browns deep into the playoffs, the team would have to decide whether it's worth trying to re-sign him.
Mahomes and Reid hit with major fines. The NFL came down hard on both Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes following their criticisms of the officiating crew in Week 14. Reid was fined $100,000 for his remarks while Mahomes was fined $50,000. Aaron Rodgers expected to be cleared this week. Less than four months after undergoing surgery, Aaron Rodgers is expected to be cleared to play this week . However, even if he gets cleared, there's no guarantee he'll play. With the Jets now eliminated from playoff contention, it doesn't seem like it would make much sense to risk Rodgers' health by playing him in three meaningless games to end the season. | | | | | | | | Fire Country | | 24/7 Sports News | Catch up and stream all episodes from Season 1 of Fire Country, only on CBS and Paramount+.
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