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| Tuesday, December 26, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| Santa wasn't the only one who delivered on Christmas; so did the Ravens. Baltimore made a statement on Monday night by destroying the 49ers, and the crazy thing is, it wasn't even the biggest upset of the day. That honor belongs to the Raiders, who beat the Chiefs 20-14 even though they didn't complete A SINGLE pass after the first quarter. If you're wondering how rare that is, it marks the first time in 23 years that a team has won with zero completions after the opening quarter. |
| We'll be talking about both of those games today, plus we'll also have some winners and losers from Week 16. Oh, and we'll also be breaking down the playoff picture. And I've also just been informed that Pete Prisco has just turned in his latest Power Rankings, so we'll also have those. |
| I hope everyone had a fantastic holiday weekend and that you're now having an even better Boxing Day. As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Biggest questions after Week 16 |
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| If I fall asleep while writing the newsletter today, it's because I stayed up until 2:07 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. That's right, I spent Christmas night recording a podcast, and yes, I drank an unhealthy amount of egg nog. |
| Anyway, the three of us touched on our 10 biggest takeaways from Week 16. Here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer: |
| Did Brock Purdy just cost himself the MVP? Brock Purdy had a chance to make an MVP statement on Monday against the Ravens, but instead, he fell flat on his face. The 49ers QB threw four interceptions and that was a big reason why his team ended getting defeated 33-19. At this point, unless Lamar Jackson has a total meltdown over the next two weeks, there's no way you could have Purdy above Jackson on your MVP ballot, so I guess that means he did cost himself any shot at the MVP. Are the Chiefs in trouble? At 9-6, the Chiefs are still a safe bet to win the AFC West, but this doesn't feel like a team that's going to make a deep run in the playoffs. The Chiefs have lost four of their past six games and things don't seem to be getting any better. Usually, this team could count on Patrick Mahomes to will them to a win, but carrying this team might be too much for even him. Mahomes doesn't seem to trust his receivers, which is likely why he's already thrown a career-high 14 interceptions this year. Can the Browns win a playoff game with Joe Flacco? I think I might be the unofficial president of the Joe Flacco fan club. Not only do I think the Browns could win a game with Flacco, I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow led them to the AFC title game. Flacco threw for 368 yards against Houston, which is the most the Texans have given up to an opposing QB all season. Flacco has now thrown for 300 yards in three straight wins, marking the first time in franchise history that a QB has hit that number in three straight wins. Flacco also knows what it takes to win in the playoffs, which is why the Browns could end up being one of the biggest surprises of the postseason this year. |
| To check out the rest of our takeaways from Week 16, be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
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| 2. Week 16 grades: Raiders earn an 'A-' for huge Christmas win |
| Every week I team up with four of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, the Ravens and Raiders both aced their tests. |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played in Week 16: |
| Raiders 20-14 over Chiefs (Click here for full game stats, analysis) |
| Raiders takeaway: The Raiders didn't even put up 210 yards of offense, but they won this game because their defense pulled off a Christmas miracle by doing the impossible: They shut down Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders had Mahomes flustered for nearly the entire game on a day where they sacked him four times, with three of those coming from Malcolm Koonce. The Raiders were able to steal this game, thanks to a wild sequence in the second quarter where their defense scored TWO touchdowns in seven seconds. First, Bilal Nichols returned a fumble for a TD, and then on Kansas City's next play from scrimmage, Jack Jones got a 33-yard pick-six. Offensively, Zamir White almost single-handedly carried the load by accounting for more than 70% of Las Vegas' yardage (145 of 205). Thanks to the win, the Raiders are suddenly STILL alive to win the AFC West. Grade: A-Chiefs takeaway: It's not often you see the Chiefs get bullied in their own stadium, but that's exactly what happened in this game. Patrick Mahomes spent a good chunk of the game running for his life and although he's usually able to make some magic happen when he's on the run, there was no magic to be had in this game. His receivers simply couldn't get open and the Chiefs couldn't get anything going on the ground. Not only did the offense played bad, but the unit handed the Raiders two touchdowns in the second quarter with a pick-six and a fumbled handoff on a trick play. The Chiefs defense played reasonably well, but they got run over by Zamir White in the fourth quarter. The Raiders running back rushed for seven carries for 75 yards in the quarter to put the game away. The Chiefs have now lost four of their past six games and right now, they don't look like a team that's going to advance very far in the playoffs. Grade: D- |
| Ravens 33-19 over 49ers (Click here for full game stats, analysis) |
| Ravens takeaway: "The Ravens put the NFL on notice in what was a wildly impressive road win to inch them one step closer to locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The defense is what continues to be the backbone of Baltimore's stellar season and the unit tallied five turnovers in the win, including four interceptions off of Brock Purdy. They stifled one of the hottest offenses in the NFL and proved that they can go into a hectic playoff environment and come away with a win. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson may have put himself in the lead for the MVP award with his performance. He gave the Niners defense fits with his legs and was extremely efficient throwing the football, logging a 105.9 passer rating." -- Tyler Sullivan. Grade: A 49ers takeaway: "This grade falls squarely on the shoulders of Brock Purdy. Four interceptions against any opponent, let alone a Lamar Jackson-led Ravens team, will put you in a position to lose, and that's exactly what happened with San Francisco. The 49ers were able to endure Purdy's three first-half picks and trailed the Ravens at halftime by just four points, but his final interception of the day helped spark a run for Baltimore that left the Niners in the dust. Defensively, the 49ers struggled to contain Jackson, particularly when he tucked the football and utilized his legs. The performances from Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle help keep the 49ers out of the "F" range." -- Tyler Sullivan. Grade: D |
| You can see all the other grades for Week 16 by clicking here. |
| 3. NFL Week 16 winners and losers: The world continues to revolve around Joe Flacco |
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| You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
| Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, which you can check out below. |
| Winners |
| The Flacco-Cooper connection. "Joe Flacco topped 300 yards for the third straight game -- the first time in his longtime NFL career -- despite going up against DeMeco Ryans' defense in a must-win game for Houston. Amari Cooper, meanwhile, was in peak form with tight-window grabs at every level to eclipse 200 yards. This is a playoff team right here, and they like to sling it."Commanders fans who want a new QB. "Sam Howell has been gutsy, but the second-year QB was benched for a second straight week. Replacement Jacoby Brissett proceeded to pull the team back into the ballgame. It's not an altogether encouraging sign for Howell's future, even if Ron Rivera and Co. are due to be escorted out after the season. Washington is angling for a top-five pick in the 2024 draft, and new ownership could be hungry for a big swing." |
| Losers |
| The Cowboys' grip on the NFC East. "Not that Dallas had much of a grip in the first place (the Eagles entered Week 16 with the ability to claim the division by winning out). But Dak Prescott, Mike McCarthy and Co. couldn't get the job done in Miami, surrendering a game-losing field goal to the Dolphins to fall to 10-5. That makes two straight road losses for Dallas, giving the Eagles more reason to believe in a turnaround."Shane Steichen's Coach of the Year bid. "The first-year Colts coach has been keeping Indy in the playoff race all year, even with Gardner Minshew manning the QB spot and guys like Jonathan Taylor bouncing in and out of the lineup. Against the ugly Falcons, with postseason standings on the line, Steichen's squad started slow, struggled to tackle and botched some late third- and fourth-down calls." |
| If you want to see Cody's full list of winners and losers, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. NFL playoff picture heading into Week 17 |
| With only two weeks left to play in the NFL season, now seems like a good time to break down the playoff picture. |
| Here's a look at the top-seven teams from each conference (* = clinched playoff berth): |
AFC
1.* Ravens (AFC North leader, 12-3)
2.* Dolphins (AFC East leader, 11-4)
3. Chiefs (AFC West leader, 9-6)
4. Jaguars (AFC South leader, 8-7)
5. Browns (10-5)
6. Bills (9-6)
7. Colts (8-7)
First teams out (in order): Texans (8-7), Steelers (8-7), Bengals (8-7) |
| With the Chiefs' loss on Monday, that means there are only three teams left still mathematically alive to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC: the Ravens, Dolphins and Browns. Baltimore and Miami play each other in Week 17 and if the Ravens win that game, they'll clinch the top spot. In the AFC South, the Jaguars will win the title if they win out against the Panthers and Titans. Although only two spots have been clinched in the AFC, the Browns (vs. Jets) and Chiefs (vs. Bengals) will both be in with a win in Week 17. |
NFC
1.* 49ers (NFC West leader, 11-4)
2.* Eagles (NFC East leader, 11-4)
3.* Lions (NFC North leader, 11-4)
4. Buccaneers (NFC South leader, 8-7)
5.* Cowboys (10-5)
6. Rams (8-7)
7. Seahawks (8-7)
First teams out (in order): Vikings (7-8), Falcons (7-8), Packers (7-8), Saints (7-8) |
| As you can see, there's a total logjam at the top of the NFC Standings. If the 49ers win their final two games (Commanders, Rams), they'll get the No. 1 seed. If there's a tie in the top spot, the 49ers will almost certainly get the No. 1 seed because they have the best conference record (9-1) and they've beaten both the Eagles and Cowboys. The 49ers play the Rams in Week 18, which could have huge ramifications on the playoff race. If the 49ers win, that could cost the Rams a wild-card spot, but if L.A. was to win, that could mean the 49ers miss out on the top seed. In the NFC South, the Buccaneers can clinch the division title as soon as this week with a win over the Saints. |
| If you want a full look at the playoff standings, we've got that right here. |
| 5. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 17 |
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| Instead of drinking egg nog like he usually does on Christmas night, Pete Prisco had to spend his time reshuffling his Power Rankings after watching two of his top-four teams (49ers and Chiefs) go down on Monday. So how did that shake things up? Let's find out. |
| Here's a look at Prisco's top five: |
| Ravens (up one spot from last week)Dolphins (up one spot from last week)49ers (down two spots from last week)Lions (up one spot from last week)Eagles (up one spot from last week) |
| Dropped out: Chiefs |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Rams. After watching them beat down the Saints on Thursday night, it appears that Prisco is now ready to jump on the Rams' bandwagon. Prisco now has the Rams in his top 10 after moving them up six spots this week from 16th to 10th. The Buccaneers also moved up six spots, making the jump from 17th to 11th. In the AFC, the biggest jump went to the Steelers, who also moved up six spots. Prisco was clearly impressed with Mason Rudolph, who led Pittsburgh to a 34-11 over the Bengals. After watching that 23-point win, Prisco moved them up from 21st to 15th. The biggest drop this week went to the Chiefs. After being ranked in the top five for most of the season, the Chiefs are now in danger of falling out of the top 10. Following their loss to the Raiders, Prisco dropped them four spots from fourth down to eighth. Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. The 2-13 Panthers have been dead last in the NFL since October, and they're still there. Prisco was impressed by the fact that they almost came back to beat the Packers, but not impressed enough to move them out of the bottom of his rankings.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 17 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
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| 6. Extra points: Jaylen Waddle could miss time |
| It was a busy holiday weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Dolphins might have to finish season without Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins receiver suffered a high-ankle sprain on Sunday and there's now a very real chance that he could miss some time, coach Mike McDaniel revealed. Even if Waddle heals quickly, it will be tough for him to be on the field this week for the Dolphins' showdown against the Ravens. Trevor Lawrence dealing with a shoulder injury. The Jaguars QB is dealing with an injury in his throwing shoulder, according to NFL.com. Even if Lawrence is able to finish the season, the injury could hamper him for the next week or two, which wouldn't be great news for a Jaguars' team that's fighting for its playoff life.
Steelers looking to extend Mike Tomlin. There's been a lot of speculation this season about what's going to happen with Mike Tomlin. As it turns out, it seems like there's good chance he'll end up staying where he's been since 2007. According to Pro Football Talk, the Steelers are looking to extend Tomlin's contract, which is currently set to expire following the 2024 season. Michigan trying to prevent Jim Harbaugh from making the jump to the NFL. Jim Harbaugh just got a monstrous contract offer from Michigan, but the deal comes with a catch: He wouldn't be allowed to coach in the NFL in 2024. The 10-year, $125 million deal includes a clause that would prevent Harbaugh from making the move to the NFL next year. Harbaugh hasn't signed the contract, so as things currently stand, he could make the move to the NFL if that's what he wants to do next season. Before that happens, though, he'll have to finish out the college year. Harbaugh's next game will be on Monday when Michigan plays Alabama in the College Football Playoff. |
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