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| Tuesday, September 27, 2022 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| Thanks to the Giants loss on Monday night, we're now down to just two undefeated teams in the NFL: The Eagles and Dolphins. Those are also the same two teams that played in the Super Bowl in the movie "Ace Ventura: Pet Detective," so we probably all should have seen this coming. |
| Anyway, now that Week 3 is officially in the books, that means we're going to start moving on to Week 4 today and we're going to do that by making some picks for Week 4, plus we'll be unveiling Pete Prisco's Power Rankings. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Recapping the Cowboys' big win over the Giants |
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| The only thing that was more exciting than the Cowboys' 23-16 win over the Giants on Monday night was the podcast that Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and I recorded following the game. We spent roughly 45 minutes debating whether Daniel Jones played well and we also debated how long the Cowboys should let Dak Prescott heal since Cooper Rush seems to have things under control. |
| With that in mind, here are three key things from the game that we talked about during the podcast: |
| Giants can't stop Cowboys' balanced offensive attack. If there's one unsung hero of the NFL season so far, it's probably Cooper Rush. The Cowboys won their second straight game without Dak Prescott, and Rush played a big part in that. The Cowboys backup QB threw for 210 yards and a TD. He also caught fire in the second half, completing 12 of 13 passes at one point. Of course, Rush also got plenty of help from a Cowboys rushing attack that totaled 178 yards. The Cowboys finally let Tony Pollard run wild and he responded by rushing for 105 yards on just 13 carries. Not to be outdone, Ezekiel Elliott also added 73 yards on 15 carries. Another player who came up big for the Cowboys was CeeDee Lamb, who caught eight passes for 87 yards, including a wild one-handed catch for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that you can see here. Cowboys defense destroys New York's offensive line. A big reason the Cowboys won is because their defense simply overpowered an overmatched Giants offensive line. Demarcus Lawrence tallied three sacks on a night where the Cowboys recorded a total of five sacks. The Cowboys defense made life miserable for Daniel Jones. Besides the five sacks, they also pressured him 24 times, which is the most pressure a QB has faced this season and the second-most any QB has faced over the past two seasons, according to ESPN.com. Giants make way too many mistakes. The Giants actually looked good for a decent part of this game, but in the end, they just made way too many mistakes. Between the dropped passes, blocked field goal, failed fourth down in the first half and the offensive line's inability to protect Daniel Jones (five sacks), the Giants just made too many errors and they're not quite good enough yet to make that many mistakes and still win. On the bright side, the Giants did get a huge game from Saquon Barkley, who's starting to look like his old self. The running back rushed for 81 yards and a touchdown on a night where he totaled 126 yards. |
| We talked about those three things, plus everything else you could possibly want to know about Monday's game. If you want to listen to the rest of our recap, be sure to click here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 4 |
| When it comes to Pete Prisco's Power Rankings, we have some big news this week: The top of the rankings has undergone some major changes with the top two spots now occupied by teams that weren't there last week. |
| Here's a look at Prisco's top 5 teams heading into Week 4: |
| EaglesDolphinsBillsPackersChiefs |
| Dropped out: Buccaneers. |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the power rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since last week. |
The biggest jump this week went to the Jacksonville Jaguars. After watching the Jags throttle the Chargers by FOUR touchdowns, Prisco moved them up 13 spots from 22nd to ninth. That's right, the Jaguars are now in the top 10. This clearly means that we're living in a simulation. The biggest jump in the NFC went to the Cowboys, who somehow keep winning with Cooper Rush. Thanks to their win over the previously undefeated Giants, Dallas jumped up six spots from 19th to 13th. The biggest drop in Prisco's Power Rankings went to the Raiders. Although the Raiders are the only 0-3 team in the NFL, they are not ranked last this week. Instead, Prisco dropped them nine spots from 16th to 25th. In big news, we also have a new team at the bottom of our power rankings. For the first three weeks, the Falcons were living in the cellar, but they've now escaped and the new team at the bottom is the HOUSTON TEXANS.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 4 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
| 3. Breech's Week 4 picks: NFL's last two undefeated teams both lose |
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| If it's Tuesday, that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| If this is your first season with us, here's how the formula works around here: I stay up until an insane hour every Monday night so that I can give you my picks every Tuesday morning. This newsletter will feature three of my picks, and then if you feel like reading the rest of them, you can do that below. |
| Before we get to my picks though, I must point out that the newsletter has turned into a jinx. The newsletter has featured six of my picks over the past two weeks and I've gone 0-6 in those games. I might have to retire from writing the Tuesday newsletter if this keeps up. |
| Anyway, here are three of my picks for Week 4: |
| Bengals (-3.5) at Dolphins (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime): The Dolphins' 3-0 start has overshadowed the fact that their defense has been horrible. Through three weeks, the Dolphins are surrendering an average of 413.7 yards per game, which is the second-most in the NFL. You can throw the ball on them, you can run the ball on them and the Bengals have the type of offense that can take advantage of that. Also, this game will mark the debut of the Cincinnati's white tiger helmets and I can't pick against a team wearing white tiger helmets. PICK: Bengals 34-27 over Dolphins. Jaguars (-6.5) at Eagles (1 p.m. ET, CBS): This is a Doug Pederson revenge game and I have to think Pederson is going to do everything possible to win on Sunday, which means this is definitely going to be a refrigerator game for him (That's where you pretend to throw the kitchen sink at your opponent, but then throw a refrigerator instead). The Eagles won't know what's coming and they'll never know what hit them. PICK: Jaguars 27-24 over Eagles. Patriots at Packers (-10.5) (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): Mac Jones almost certainly won't be playing this week due to an ankle injury, which means the Patriots will either be going with Brian Hoyer or a rookie at quarterback. If it's Hoyer, he's lost 11 straight games as a starter (He hasn't won a game since 2016). If it's Bailey Zappe, he'd be making his first career start on the road at Lambeau Field and asking him to win in that situation might be a bit much. PICK: Packers 27-16 over Patriots. |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 4, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. NFL coaches on the rise -- and on the decline -- heading into Week 4 |
| The third week of the NFL season went pretty well for some coaches but not so well for other coaches. With that in mind, Cody Benjamin decided to take a look at the coaches who are trending up and the coaches who are trending down after three weeks of play. |
| Trending up |
| Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. "The former 49ers assistant has essentially been trending up since the day he was hired, but what's a roundup of hot head coaches without McDaniel? The guy has truly unlocked Tua Tagovailoa's confidence as a thrower, and his teams have either been well-prepared or well-adjusted, or both, through three weeks, including Sunday's tough upset of the mighty Bills."Jaguars defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. "Doug Pederson is the real winner in Jacksonville, restoring Trevor Lawrence's poise, but let's give some credit to his handpicked defensive guru. Edwards is a first-time coordinator, formerly a longtime linebackers coach, but he's overseen big steps from their young pass rushers. His "D" is a top-10 unit in both points and yards allowed, and his guys stunned Justin Herbert in Week 3." |
| Trending down |
| Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. "A week after Kyler Murray's unreal scrambling saved the Cardinals in an overtime win, Kingsbury's club fell back to Earth against the Rams. Yes, he's dealing with a depleted receiving corps. But he's got a top-10 talent under center in Murray. Why, oh why, do his offensive strategies rarely, if ever, warrant trust in games against legitimate opponents?"Jets coach Robert Saleh. "You can blame the Jets' continued woes on Joe Flacco starting in place of an injured Zach Wilson, but maybe it's time to start asking why Saleh's team is still battling fundamental and discipline issues well into his second year atop the staff. For being a heralded defensive mind, Saleh's units rarely intimidate, and against Cincy, his own staffers were bickering with top players." |
| To see Cody's full list of coaches who are on the rise and his list of coaches who are on the decline, be sure to click here. |
| We also have a list of one thing we learned about each team in Week 3 and you can check that out by clicking here. |
| 5. Tampa Bay is in the path of Hurricane Ian: Buccaneers forced to leave town |
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| The Buccaneers won't be practicing in Tampa Bay this week and that's because the team is being forced to leave town due to Hurricane Ian, which is expected to make landfall near Tampa at some point in the next 48 hours. |
| Here's what we know about the situation: |
| The Buccaneers will be spending the week in Miami. The team has already announced that it will be moving its football operations to South Florida for the week. The Buccaneers will be heading there today and are expected to remain in Miami for the rest of the week. The Bucs will be practicing at the Dolphins' facility, which worked out, because Miami will be playing in Cincinnati on Thursday. Contingencies for Sunday's game. Right now, the NFL is still planning for the Chiefs-Buccaneers game to be played at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday night. However, if the league has to make a change, the game almost certainly WON'T be moved to Miami. According to ESPN.com, the league doesn't want to use state resources to hold a game, so if the game does get relocated, it would almost certainly be moved outside the state of Florida. One location that has been mentioned is Bank of America Stadium in Minnesota. Tom Brady is preparing for his first major hurricane. "I don't think that anyone's really prepared for this. I know I've been preparing all morning and get all my stuff outside, try to put it inside, try to get all the stuff on the ground level up a little bit higher," Brady said Monday on his "Let's Go!" podcast, via ESPN.com. "I'm right here on the bay so they're talking about pretty high storm surges and it's a scary thing. I will say that it's a scary thing when it really hits your doorstep." |
| The NFL likely won't make a decision on the game until after the hurricane makes its way to Florida. By the time it reaches Tampa, it could lose strength or even slightly miss the city. According to the latest reports, the hurricane could reach Category 4 status over the Gulf of Mexico, but drop to Category 2 before making landfall in Florida. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: Myles Garrett involved in car crash |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Myles Garrett released from hospital after car crash. The Browns star received a major scare on Monday after the car he was driving swerved off the road as he attempted to avoid an animal near the Browns' practice facility. Although Garrett was hospitalized after the crash, he didn't suffer any life-threatening injuries and he was released from the hospital less than 24 hours after the wreck. Mac Jones likely to miss multiple games. The Patriots quarterback has been diagnosed with a severe high ankle sprain. According to ESPN.com , Jones could end up undergoing surgery. Whether he undergoes surgery or not, Jones will almost certainly have to miss multiple games due to the injury.
Dak Prescott to have stitches removed, could soon be back on the field. The Cowboys QB spoke with NFL Media's Jane Slater on Monday night and he seems to think that he could be ready to start by Week 5. Prescott had the stitches removed from his surgically repaired thumb on Monday, and according to Slater, the thumb had no swelling and seems to be mostly healed. Chargers take a big injury hit. The Chargers injury woes have gone from bad to worse over the past 24 hours. For one, they've now lost left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season due to a biceps injury and that's not the guy you want to lose when you have a QB who's dealing with a nagging rib injury. Wide receiver Jalen Guyton is also out for the year after tearing his ACL. Also, Joey Bosa could miss a game or two due to a groin injury. The only good news for Los Angeles is that Keenan Allen is expected to return to practice this week. |
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