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Monday, November 25, 2024 |
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
It is officially Thanksgiving week, but I can't even start to think about all the turkey I'm going to eat just yet and that's because we still have one more game to play in Week 12 and it's a monstrous one: Ravens at Chargers. |
If you love family feuds -- and who doesn't at Thanksgiving -- then this is the game for you. Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh will be looking to get his first NFL win ever over his younger brother, John. The Ravens coach is 2-0 all-time against Jim, including a win in Super Bowl XLVII. |
If tonight's game is just half as crazy as what we saw on Sunday, then we should be in for a fun Monday night. Anyway, we'll be previewing tonight's game in today's newsletter, plus we'll be breaking down everything that happened Sunday. |
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
1. NFL Week 12 grades: Cowboys earn high mark for shocking win |
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Every Monday, we hand out grades, so that's exactly what we're going to do right now. Here's a look at the grades from two notable games played Sunday: |
Cowboys 34-26 over Commanders (Click here for full recap) |
Cowboys takeaway: When you're forced to start your backup quarterback, you need other players on the team to come up big, and that's exactly what the Cowboys got Sunday. From Rico Dowdle to CeeDee Lamb to KaVontae Turpin to Juanyeh Thomas, the Cowboys had a lot of heroes in this game. Both Turpin and Thomas scored on kick return touchdowns, which both came in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys defense looked like a brick wall for the first three quarters before struggling some during a fourth quarter where Washington put up 223 yards. Cooper Rush also deserves a lot of credit for the win: The Cowboys QB played smart football while throwing for 247 yards and two touchdowns. The Cowboys may not be a playoff contender, but they just proved they can beat playoff contenders, which could help them play spoiler down the stretch. Grade: A-Commanders takeaway: This game was a special teams nightmare for the Commanders: In the fourth quarter alone, they surrendered two different kickoff returns that went for touchdowns AND Austin Seibert missed an extra point after a miraculous 86-yard TD throw from Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin. That was one of three missed kicks for Seibert, who also missed a field goal and another extra point. The offense put up big numbers, but most of that came in the fourth quarter. Jayden Daniels threw for 275 yards, but he only had 81 yards through the first three quarters as the Commanders were never really able to get on track against the Cowboys defense. This was an inexplicable loss for a Commanders team that's suddenly not such a sure bet to make the playoffs now that they've lost three straight games. Grade: B- |
Dolphins 34-15 over Patriots (Click here for full recap) |
Patriots takeaway: For most of the season, the Patriots offense had been improving each week with Drake Maye, but against the Dolphins, it took a giant step back. The offense had a brutal first half against Miami, totaling just 84 yards with just 49 of that coming from Maye's right arm. As bad as the offense was, the Patriots defense wasn't much better. It had no answers for Tua Tagovailoa and couldn't cover Jaylen Waddle, who went off for 144 yards. This was a meltdown on both sides of the ball for the Patriots in a game where they got thoroughly outplayed. Grade: D- Dolphins takeaway: Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in the month of November, and his hot streak continued against the Patriots. The Dolphins offense was on fire in the first half and that was mostly thanks to Tagovailoa, who threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in the FIRST TWO QUARTERS. (He threw for 317 yards and four scores in the game.). From there, the Dolphins defense did the rest. It smothered Drake Maye, as Chop Robinson came up with 1.5 of Miami's four sacks while Zach Sieler added a strip-sack. The Dolphins have to play nearly perfect football down the stretch if they want to make the playoffs, and that's what they've now been doing for three straight weeks. Grade: A |
As for the other 20 grades I handed out in Week 12, you can check those out by clicking here. |
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2. NFL Week 12 winners and losers: Texans and 49ers implode |
You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, and we're going to check out his losers below. |
LOSERS |
The Texans' playoff hopes (Texans lose to Titans, 32-27). "To be clear, Houston is still the rightful favorite to win the AFC South, but we're talking about the Texans' chances of actually advancing come January. C.J. Stroud was sterling as a rookie, but he, like DeMeco Ryans' defense, has been far more frenetic in Year 2."Matt Eberflus (Bears to lose to Vikings, 30-27). "For a minute on Sunday, the Chicago Bears coach looked as if he might upset the rival Minnesota Vikings, chiefly because his rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams, handled Brian Flores' aggressive defense reasonably well with his electric arm. His defense once again faltered on critical downs, though, allowing the Vikes to win it in overtime."49ers' title hopes (49ers lose to Packers, 38-10). "San Francisco came into 2024 as a bona fide Super Bowl contender, or at least by preseason projections. And it made sense; they nearly dethroned the Chiefs in 2023, and they retained all-star talent. Without an injured Brock Purdy, however, they dropped their second straight Sunday, falling below .500 with a tough stretch ahead." |
If you want to see Cody's list of winners, be sure to click here. |
3. 12 crazy stats from Week 12: Saquon Barkley has historic night |
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Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild stats about the games that were just played. |
With that in mind, here are 12 crazy stats about Week 12: |
Saquon Barkley steamrolls the Rams. In Philadelphia's 37-20 win over the Rams, the Eagles running back finished with 255 rushing yards, which is the ninth-highest single-game total in NFL history. He also became the first player since Maurice Jones-Drew in 2009 to have TWO touchdown runs of 70 yards or more in the same game. Barkley also had 47 receiving yards, giving him 302 yards from scrimmage on the night, which is tied for the 10th-highest total in NFL history. Barkley also became the first player in NFL history to finish with at least 250 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It's also worth mentioning that both his rushing total and his yards from scrimmage total were franchise records for the Eagles. You can read more about Saquon's big night here.Cowboys pull off biggest upset of the year. With their 34-26 win over Washington, the Cowboys pulled off the biggest upset of the 2024 season so far, The Cowboys were 10.5-point underdogs going into Sunday's game. The Titans also beat the Texans as 8-point underdogs, which means we saw two of the five biggest point spread upsets go down Sunday. Cowboys make special teams history. With two kickoff returns that went for touchdowns, the Cowboys became the first team in NFL history to get two kick return scores in the fourth quarter (KaVontae Turpin and Juanyeh Thomas came up with the big plays). Fourteen other teams have had two kick return touchdowns, but no other team had ever gotten both in the fourth quarter. This was also just the second game in NFL history that featured two kick return touchdowns AND two missed extra points in the same game. The only other time that happened came in 1942. For a closer look at all the special teams craziness that went down in Washington, be sure to check out our full story hereRare year for Lions With their 10th win, the Lions have now hit double-digit wins in back-to-back seasons for the first time in franchise history. At 10-1, they're also off to their best 11-game start since 1934. Chiefs also hit 10 wins. The Chiefs are also now 10-1 after their 30-27 win over the Panthers, which gives them 10 straight seasons where they've hit 10 wins. That's the third longest streak in NFL history trailing only the 49ers (1983-98) and Patriots (2003-2019). The win also means that Andy Reid has now won at least 10 games in 19 different seasons, which is the third-most in NFL history, behind only Bill Belichick and Don Shula, who both won at least 10 games in 20 different seasons.Sonic and Knuckles make history. Those are the nicknames for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who combined to make history by becoming the first pair of running back teammates in NFL history to each hit 10 rushing touchdowns in consecutive seasons in NFL history. NFC North dominance. With the Packers getting to eight wins on Sunday, the 2024 NFC North becomes the first division since divisional realignment in 2002 to have three teams all win at least eight games in the first 12 weeks of a season. Kelce keeps climbing up the all-time list. With 62 receiving yards against the Panthers, Travis Kelce now has 11,897 yards for his career, which moves him past Antonio Gates (11,841) for the third-most in NFL history by a tight end. Kelce now only trails Tony Gonzalez (15,127 receiving yards) and Jason Witten (13,046).Giants defense keeps coming up empty. The Giants got smoked by the Buccaneers, 30-7, and have now gone 10 straight games without intercepting a pass, which is tied with the 1976-77 49ers and 2017 Raiders for the longest streak in NFL history. The irony here is that former Giants player (and current Packers safety) Xavier McKinney is tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions. The Giants let McKinney walk in free agency last March. Malik Nabers on record pace. The Giants weren't good on Sunday, but Nabers was. The rookie receiver caught six passes for 64 yards and now has 67 receptions on the season. That moves him past Puka Nacua (64 receptions) for the most receptions by a player in his first nine career games in NFL history. Antonio Winfield joins rare club. The Buccaneers safety picked up a sack in Tampa Bay's 30-7 win over the Giants and now has two on the season. That's a big deal because it makes him just the third defensive back with at least two sacks in each of his first five seasons since sacks became an official stat in 1982. Winfield joins Adam Archuleta and Keith Bostic as the only players to pull off that feat. Will the thrill. Titans QB Will Levis got sacked seven times in the first half on Sunday, becoming just the fifth quarterback since 1991 to get sacked at least seven times in a first half. Despite getting beat up, Levis still managed to have a solid game, throwing for 278 yards and two touchdowns in Tennessee's 32-27 win over Houston. |
If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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4. NFL Week 12 overreactions: Will Commanders miss the playoffs? |
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 12 to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Statement: Vikings are a contender to come out of the NFC in the playoffs. Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "The quietest good team in football are the Vikings, who improved to 9-2 with an overtime victory over the Bears. Minnesota has won four straight games since losing two straight after the 5-0 start, but all those victories are against teams with losing records. The Vikings haven't played against a team that currently has a winning record since Week 8... We'll find out what the Vikings are made of, but it's too early to put them as a conference title contender. The NFC is so hard to predict behind the Lions." |
Statement: Commanders are going to miss the playoffs. Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Their NFC East title chances took a huge hit with the loss to Dallas, but Washington is still the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Rams and Seahawks aren't far behind the Commanders, but their schedule is favorable with three of the five opponents remaining currently having a losing record." |
Statement: Brian Daboll won't be the coach of the Giants in 2025. Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Giants owner John Mara has said Daboll's job is safe, but how can it be after Sunday's embarrassing 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers? The Giants are arguably the worst team in the NFL, and players are even questioning other players' motives after the latest blowout loss. ... Not only are the Giants not competitive, they're embarrassing -- and this is all under Daboll's leadership." |
There are plenty more overreactions from Week 12, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. |
5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Ravens at Chargers |
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The final game of Week 12 will be taking place in Los Angeles, where the Harbaughs will be having a family reunion. It will be John Harbaugh's 7-4 Ravens taking on Jim Harbaugh's 7-3 Chargers. |
These two teams are currently slotted into the first and second wild-card spots in the AFC, so needless to say, this game is going to have huge playoff implications. |
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight: |
Why the Ravens can win: The Chargers defense has been solid this year, but if it's had one weakness, it's stopping the run. The Chargers are surrendering 4.7 yards per carry, which is a number that's probably going to cause Derrick Henry's mouth to water. The Ravens running back is averaging an absurd 6.0 yards per carry this season, and if he keeps picking up huge chunks against the Chargers defense, that would take a lot of pressure off Lamar Jackson, opening the door for the Ravens QB to have a huge game. If both Henry and Jackson have huge games, the Chargers will be in trouble. Why the Chargers can win: The Chargers have won four straight games, and a big reason for that is because of how well Justin Herbert has been playing. He was impressive in Week 11 against the Bengals (297 yards, two touchdowns), and he may put up even bigger numbers tonight against a Baltimore defense that has struggled to stop the pass. The Ravens are surrendering 284.5 passing yards per game this year, which ranks dead last in the NFL. Basically, even if the Ravens turn this into a shootout, Herbert and the Chargers should be able to keep up. |
You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. |
If you want to know why Jim Harbaugh has been able to turn the Chargers around, we've got a breakdown on that here. |
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. |
ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Justin Herbert OVER 284.5 passing + rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM): Herbert is going up against the worst passing defense in the NFL, which means he might hit the over here with just his passing numbers alone, but we also get his rushing yards, which is why I like this bet. In his past five games, Herbert has AVERAGED 305.4 passing + rushing yards. Against a bad Bengals defense in Week 11, he put up 362 and I think we might see a similar number tonight. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Cameron Dicker OVER 7.5 points (-105 at BetMGM): The Chargers kicker has gone over this number in five of his past six games, and I won't be surprised if he goes over 7.5 before we even get to the fourth quarter. Also, the Ravens are giving up an average of 2.1 field goals per game this year to opposing kickers, which is tied for the fifth-highest number in the NFL. |
And in case you're wondering, my props are now 28-23 on the season (13-11 on kicker props and 15-12 on all other props). |
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here. |
And finally, here are our picks for the game. |
RAVENS-CHARGERS PICKS My pick: Ravens 38-31 over Chargers Dubin's pick: Ravens 27-24 over Chargers Prisco's pick: Chargers 31-26 over Ravens |
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our experts are split down the middle with four of us taking the Ravens and four of us taking the Chargers. |
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6. Extra points: Possible landing spots for Daniel Jones |
It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Daniel Jones eyeing possible playoff contenders. The Giants QB is expected to clear waivers today, and once that happens, he'll be free to sign with any team. According to multiple reports, Jones is looking to sign with a playoff contender and there are a lot of teams that would make sense, including the Dolphins, Ravens, Eagles, Lions, 49ers or Cardinals. Jones could also consider signing with a team's practice squad . If he does that, another team could still come in and steal him from that practice squad if they sign him to the active roster. You can read more about Jones here. Gardner Minshew out for the season. One other option for Daniel Jones could be the Raiders because Minshew is now out for the season after breaking his collarbone during a loss to the Broncos. With Minshew out, that means Desmond Ridder could start Friday against the Chiefs unless Aidan O'Connell is ready to return. O'Connell fractured his thumb in Week 7, but is eligible to return from injured reserve this week. Eagles defense takes big injury hit. Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham announced Sunday night that he'll miss the rest of the season after he tore his triceps during Philly's 37-20 win over the Rams. Graham has 3.5 sacks on the season, which is tied for the third-highest total on the team. At 36 years old, there's also a chance Graham has now played his last down. You can read more about his situation here. |
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