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| Tuesday, October 31, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Halloween edition of the Pick Six newsletter where we won't have much time to celebrate the holiday because there's too much going on. |
| Today isn't just Halloween, it's also the NFL trade deadline, which means there's a 47% chance that all hell is going to break loose over the next few hours. If a team wants to make a deal, they have until 4 p.m. ET to pull it off. Last year, we saw a total of 11 trades go down on deadline day, so don't be surprised if things get crazy. |
| There will almost certainly be a few trades today and since they will probably happen after this newsletter gets sent out, we've made it easy for you to stay updated on all the action. We'll be running a live blog that will cover every trade and you can check it out by clicking here. |
| If you want to hang out with me later today, we'll be doing a live edition of the Pick Six podcast starting at 4 p.m ET and you can check that out on YouTube by clicking here. Alright, we've got a lot to cover today, so let's get to the rundown |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Early bets for Week 9 |
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| With Week 8 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 9 today by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. |
| During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling gurus Emory Hunt and Alex Selesnick. |
| The crew covered several of their favorite early bets for Week 9 and we're going to look at a couple of those below. |
| Katie: Chiefs (-2.5) to cover against the Dolphins. There are a few trends that Katie really likes when it comes to the Chiefs. "Patrick Mahomes is 14-3 straight-up after a loss. Also, teams that are favored in international games -- not including the Jaguars -- are 22-9 against the spread, so they're hitting at 71%." The Chiefs are favored and Mahomes is coming off a loss, what's there not to like? Selesnick: Bengals (-3) to cover against Bills. Selesnick is all over the Bengals in this game, "I thought the Bengals looked excellent [in their win over the 49ers] coming off the bye week, Joe Burrow looked as healthy as he's looked all year. The Bengals are firing on all cylinders. The Bills are catching the Bengals at the wrong time. I think this is a good spot for a Bengals team that is peaking and has all the momentum." |
| If you want to hear the rest of the props and early best bets for Week 9, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. NFL trade deadline rumors and deals |
| Dont' be surprised if things get kind of crazy today and that's because, when it comes to the trade deadline, NFL teams have been known to wait until the last day to make a deal and today is the last day. As I mentioned at the top, 11 deals went down on the day of the deadline last year. |
| Here's a look at all of the trades that have gone down over the past 24 hours. |
| Bears acquire Montez Sweat |
| Bears receive: Montez SweatCommanders receive: 2024 second-round pickBears grade: C-. "This acquisition doesn't make a ton of sense. Sweat is slated to enter free agency, so the Bears could have waited until the offseason to try to sign him. But instead of bidding for his services, the Bears decided to be proactive while acquiring him now." -- Bryan DeArdoCommanders grade: A-. " Give Washington a lot of credit for getting a second-round pick for a player who is only signed through this season. If Sweat was not going to be re-signed, it makes all the sense in the world to trade him now while getting something in return." -- Bryan DeArdo |
| For more on this trade, be sure to go here. |
| Seahawks acquire Leonard Williams |
| Seahawks receive: Leonard WilliamsGiants receive: 2024 second-round pick, 2025 fifth-round pickSeahawks grade: B-. "Seattle certainly needed to bring in somebody to help the defensive line, and particularly the pass rush. Williams doesn't have many sacks, but he is coming off his best pressure performance of the season (7) against the Jets and he is a very good athlete on the interior. Still, the Seahawks paid a high price for what is almost certainly a rental." -- Jared Dubin |
| If you want to read more about the Williams deal, including the Giants grade, be sure to click here. We also have a detailed breakdown of why the Seahawks defense should be much better with Williams and you can check that out here. |
| Falcons acquire Kentavius Street. |
| Falcons receive: Kentavius Street, 2025 seveth-round pickEagles receive: 2024 sixth-round pickFalcons grade: A-. "The Falcons didn't give up much for a position of need, especially for a player that knows their system thanks to his familiarity with defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Street had a career year in Nielsen's defense when he was the co-defensive coordinator with the New Orleans Saints last season, notching his career-highs in snaps, pressures, and sacks." -- Jeff Kerr |
| For more on this trade, including the Eagles, grade, be sure to go here. |
| In other deadline news, Bears star corner Jaylen Johnson has been granted permission to seek a trade, which means it won't be surprising if he gets dealt today. The 49ers are a team that could make a lot of sense for Johnson, along with the Bills. |
| Remember, there could be plenty of trades going down AFTER this newsletter hits your inbox and if you want to keep tabs on those, you can do that in our trade deadline live blog here. |
| 3. Monday night grades after Lions' 26-14 win over Raiders |
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| Don't let the scoreboard full you, this game was a total blowout. Although the Lions only won by 12, they dominated from start to finish. Not to mention, they outgained the Raiders by 329 yards (486-157), which is the second-most any team has outgained another team this season. The only team to do better was the Dolphins, who outgained the Broncos by 363 yards when they put up 70 on Denver in Week 3. |
| Here are our grades from Detroit's win: |
| RAIDERS GRADE: D |
| The Raiders are officially in the running for having the worst offense in the NFL. They only had one drive in this game that went over six plays, they only converted one third down and they didn't even put up 160 total yards. The Raiders defense did its best to keep things close by forcing three turnovers, including a Marcus Peters pick-six in the second half that cut the lead to 16-14, but the offense was so bad that their efforts went to waste. Josh McDaniels is in charge of the offense and if it's not working, that's on him. If the Raiders coach wasn't already on the hot seat going into this game, he should be now. |
| Raiders note |
| Pick-six king. The Raiders only really had one highlight in this game and it came from Marcus Peters, who had a 75-yard pick-six in the third quarter that cut the Lions' lead to 16-14. Peters now has seven pick-sixes since his rookie year in 2015, which is the MOST in the NFL over that span. His touchdown was also the longest pick-six by a Raiders player since 2006. |
| LIONS GRADE: A- |
| The Lions offense was already good, and now, it's even scarier thanks to the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs, who put up huge numbers against the Raiders. The rookie running back totaled 189 yards, including 152 and a TD on the ground. Gibbs gained more yards than the Raiders entire offense (157). The Lions were able to move the ball at will on a night where they piled up 486 yards of offense. The defense also looked impressive, forcing two turnovers while also sacking Jimmy Garoppolo six times. Although the Lions were good, this wasn't a perfect game by any means, they turned the ball over three times and miss a chip-shot field goal. If they're winning this handily when they don't play perfect football, just imagine what's going to happen when they do. |
| Lions note |
| Lions defense roars. The Lions held the Raiders to just 157 yards, which was the lowest number they've held an opponent to since 2013. The more impressive part is that the Lions also racked up six sacks with Alex Anzalone and Alim McNeill recording two each. This game marked just the SECOND TIME in 40 years that the Lions held an opponent to under 160 yards of offense in a game where they also recorded at least six sacks. |
| If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 9 |
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| I'm starting to think that the top spot is cursed in Prisco's Power Rankings. For the second time in three weeks, the No. 1 team went down, which means Prisco had to seriously adjust his Power Rankings this week. Prisco had the Chiefs at No. 1, but now, they're not even in the top five anymore after losing to the Broncos 24-9 on Sunday. |
| With that in mind, here's a look at Prisco's top five heading into Week 9: |
Eagles (Up one spot from last week)Ravens (Up one spot from last week)Jaguars (Up one spot from last week)Cowboys (Up two spots from last week)
Dolphins (Up two spots from last week) |
| Dropped out: Chiefs, 49ers |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Tennessee Titans. After watching Will Levis throw four TD passes in his first career start, Prisco rewarded the Titans by moving them up nine spots, from 27th to 18th. The Titans won't have much time to enjoy their new ranking, because they play the Steelers on Thursday. In the NFC, the biggest jump went to New Orleans. The Saints offense exploded for 38 points on the Colts in Week 8 and Prisco was so impressed that he moved New Orleans up six spots this week, from 21st to 15th. The biggest tumble in this week's rankings went to the Falcons. Going into Week 8, this team was in the top 12, but they aren't anymore after their loss to the Titans. Pete apparently doesn't think much of their QB situation because he dropped Atlanta seven spots, from 12th to 19th. Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. Despite picking up their first win of the season in Week 8, Prisco is keeping the Panthers in last place. Sorry, Panthers fans. You're going to have to beat someone else if you want to move out of the cellar.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 9 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
| 5. Breech's Week 9 picks: Cowboys upset Eagles in NFC East showdown |
| It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing around these parts: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| This is the part of the newsletter where I give you three picks and then we all cross our fingers and hope those picks hit. Last week, I went 11-5, which I will gladly take after bombing out with a 4-9 record in Week 7. |
| With that in mind, here are three of my picks for Week 9. |
| Miami (6-2) vs. Kansas City (6-2) in Germany: The Dolphins have played two teams this year that currently have a winning record -- Philadelphia and Buffalo -- and they lost those two games by an average of 21 points. The Dolphins can't beat good teams and I'm not sure if playing this game in a different country is going to change that. Also, if I have one rule when making picks, it's that I never pick against Patrick Mahomes when he's coming off a loss. Mahomes has won eight straight games coming off a loss and he'll be coming off a loss heading into this game. PICK: Chiefs 30-27 over Dolphins. Seattle (5-2) at Baltimore (6-2): For some reason, NFC teams can not beat Lamar Jackson. Since he took over as the Ravens' starting QB in 2018, Jackson has gone 17-1 against NFC teams. The Seahawks are in the NFC, so obviously I have to take Jackson here. PICK: Ravens 19-16 over Seahawks. Dallas (5-2) at Philadelphia (7-1): Jalen Hurts is still hobbling around and I'm not sure how he's going to handle the Cowboys' pass rush. I think he's going to struggle with that and even if he does find time to throw the ball, the Cowboys have two corners (Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland) who are good enough to slow down A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. I think the Cowboys pull off the upset in Philly. PICK: Cowboys 30-23 over Eagles. |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 9, be sure to click here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Falcons could make QB change |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Falcons QB job up in the air. After watching Taylor Heinicke play impressive football on Sunday, it appears that Arthur Smith is now contemplating the possibility of letting him start this week. During his Monday news conference, Smith said he's going to think about the QB situation and name a starter on Wednesday. In the Falcons' loss to the Titans, Atlanta only totaled 89 yards in the first half with Desmond Ridder at QB. Ridder didn't play in the second half though after entering and being cleared from concussion protocol. Cardinals make QB switch. With Kyler Murray healthy, you'd think they'd be switching to him, but that's not necessarily the case. Jonathan Gannon said he's hopeful that Murray will be ready to play, but if he can't go, then Clayton Tune will get the start on Sunday against the Browns. Throwing Murray out there in a road game against the Browns defense seems like a bad idea, so I won't be surprised if the Cards wait until next week to play their star QB. Bears turning to Tyson Bagent again. With Justin Fields still battling a thumb injury, Tyson Bagent has been tabbed to make his third start of the season and that will come on Sunday against the Saints. Bagent is 1-1 in two starts while filling in for Fields, who's dealing with a dislocated thumb.
Bills add Leonard Fournette. The Super Bowl-winning running back is headed to Buffalo after signing with the Bills' practice squad on Monday . The move adds some more depth to a Bills backfield that already includes James Cook and Latavius Murray. |
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