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| Monday, January 8, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| This might be the most jam-packed newsletter of all-time, because that's what happens when we get 24 hours of absolute craziness in the NFL. |
| Here's what has happened over the past 24 hours: |
| The Jaguars choked their way out of the playoffsThe Dolphins choked away the AFC East titleThe Falcons fired Arthur SmithThe Commanders fired Ron RiveraThe playoff schedule came out and it appears that Matthew Stafford will be getting an all-expense paid trip back to Detroit. |
| We'll be covering all of those things, plus plenty more in today's newsletter, so let's get to the rundown. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Getting your friends signed up is a great way to help them start 2024 off on the right foot. |
| 1. Today's show: Biggest questions after Week 18 |
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| If I fall asleep while writing the newsletter today, it's because I stayed up until 3:01 a.m. last night to record a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. It was longer than usual, because we also had to cover the Arthur Smith firing, which took place at MIDNIGHT. The Falcons apparently don't sleep. |
| Anyway, the three of us touched on our 10 biggest takeaways from Week 18. Here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer: |
| How dangerous are the Bills? If there's any team that could challenge the Ravens in the AFC, it feels like the Bills. By earning the No. 2 seed, that means that Bills will be guaranteed two homes games as long as they win in the wild-card round. I won't be surprised at all if Buffalo ends up in the Super Bowl. Should the Lions have rested their starters? I have no problem with the fact that Dan Campbell decided to play his starters on Sunday, but I do think he went a little crazy. The Lions could have clinched the two-seed if the Cowboys lost, but Dallas blew out the Commanders. Once that game turned into a blowout, I would have benched everyone, but Campbell didn't do that. The Lions' decision to play their starters ended up backfiring with Sam LaPorta suffering an injury that will likely keep him out for the wild-card round. How far can the Texans go in the playoffs? The Texans are a fun team to watch, but if I've learned one thing from NFL history, it's that rookie quarterbacks almost always struggle in the playoffs. Since 2012, rookies have gone 4-11 in the postseason and two of those wins came in games where two rookies were facing each other, so a rookie had to win (The other two came from Brock Purdy). Winning a playoff game is difficult and it's even more difficult when you have a rookie QB, so I do not expect the Texans to go far. |
| To check out the rest of our takeaways from Week 18, be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
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| 2. Coaching carousel has started: Arthur Smith gets fired |
| There's a reason the day after the regular season is known as "Black Monday" around the NFL and that's because it's the one day every year where at least one head coach gets fired and this year is no exception. |
| The NFL season ended less than 24 hours ago and there have already been two firings with Arthur Smith getting canned by the Falcons and Ron Rivera getting the axe in Washington. |
| With those two guys getting fired, now seems like a good time to check out what other things have happened or might happen to coaches around the league: |
| Commanders. With new owner Josh Harris in place, it seemed pretty clear that Ron Rivera was going to get dumped at the end of the season and that's exactly what happened (You can check out more details on Rivera's firing here ). One interesting thing about this coaching search is that Harris is bringing in former Warriors GM Bob Myers and former Vikings GM Rick Spielman to advise him as he searches for a new coach (You've read about Spielman multiple times in this newsletter over the past 12 months and that's because the's the co-host of the "With the First Pick" podcast). It will be interesting to see if Harris tries to make a big splash by hiring someone like Bill Belichick or Jim Harbaugh. The Commanders have already started their search by requesting interviews with several candidates, including Lions OC Ben Johnson, Lions DC Aaron Glenn and Rams DC Raheem Morris. Falcons. After three straight seasons of going 7-10, the Falcons have given up on Smith. After the Falcons lost 48-17 to the Saints on Sunday, it seemed very likely that Smith was going to lose his job, especially since he cussed out Saints coach Dennis Allen after the game for running up the score. One interesting thing about this coaching search is that it won't really involve general manager Terry Fontenot. The Falcons announced that the search will be led by owner Arthur Blank and team CEO Rich McKay with "input" from Fontenot (You can read our full story about Smith's firing here). Panthers. The Panthers are cleaning house. This team fired Frank Reich in late November and they followed that up by firing general manager Scott Fitterer on Monday. Fitterer spent three seasons in Carolina before getting the axe. This will put all the pressure on owner David Tepper, who will now be responsible for hiring both a GM and a a head coach. Patriots. After 24 seasons, it seems like the Patriots might be ready to move on from Bill Belichick. The Patriots coach said he's going to meet with Robert Kraft at some point in the near future, and soon after that meeting takes place, we'll find out if the Patriots plan on keeping Belichick. In his end-of-season press conference on Monday, Belichick didn't sound like a guy who was planning to move on. "I'm going to do everything I can every day to do the best I can to help our football team," Belichick said when asked if he want to stay in New England to help fix things. "That's what I've always done. It's never been any different for me in my career. I learned that lesson from my dad growing up."Titans. After beating the Jaguars, Mike Vrabel said he wants to return to Tennessee, but there's still a chance that he could move on because he's apparently frustrated with the team brass, according to NFL.com. If Vrabel does leave Tennessee, he would likely be one of the most coveted coaches on the market and it wouldn't be surprising if he ended up back in New England if Bill Belichick were to leave there. Cowboys. There always seems to be one surprise firing, and there's a small chance this could be the one. Although Mike McCarthy has led the Cowboys to their second division title in three years, there's no guarantee he's going to return. When asked about McCarthy's future on Sunday, Jerry Jones talked up his coach, but he also seemed to hint that the playoffs could factor into things, "We'll see how each game goes." That seems like code word for "You better not lose to the Packers." |
| As things stand, the Commanders, Panthers, Falcons, Chargers and Raiders will all be looking for a new head coach this offseason and it won't be surprising if one of the teams listed above eventually joins them. For a closer look at the jobs that might come open and a full look at all the open jobs be sure to check out our coaching tracker here. |
| 3. NFL playoff schedule is out: Browns and Texans to kick off postseason |
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| The NFL playoffs are finally here and if you like revenge games, then you're definitely going to love what the NFL has in store for the wild card round. |
| With that in mind, here's a look at the schedule for the wild card round: |
| Saturday, Jan. 13 |
| (5) Browns at (4) Texans (+2.5), 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC). For just the second time in 20 years, the Browns are in the playoffs. These two teams met back in Week 16, but you probably shouldn't take too much away from that 36-22 win by Cleveland because C.J. Stroud didn't play. The Texans superstar rookie will be on the field this week and he'll be facing one of his biggest tests of the season in the Browns defense. These two teams are forever tied together in NFL history due to the fact that the Browns made the trade for Deshaun Watson. (6) Dolphins at (3) Chiefs (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET (Peacock). Tyreek Hill is going to get a second chance at beating his former team, and this time, he gets to do it in Kansas City. These two teams did meet back in Week 9 in a game that Kansas City won 21-14, but that game was played in Germany. The temperature in Kansas City is expected to be about 12 degrees on Saturday night. |
| Sunday, Jan. 14 |
| (7) Steelers at (2) Bills (-9.5), 1 p.m. ET (CBS). This game will be played in Buffalo, where the Bills have been nearly unbeatable this year, going 7-1. Josh Allen has faced the Steelers four times in his career and he's gone 3-1 in those games. The Sunday forecast in Buffalo is calling for sub-freezing temperatures with possible snow. (Note: You can stream this game on Paramount+. Just click here to sign up) (7) Packers at (2) Cowboys (-7.5), 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox). This will be a revenge game for Mike McCarthy. This will mark just the second time that the Cowboys coach has faced the Packers since being fired by them in December 2018. McCarthy lost the first meeting in 2022 and will be looking to get his first win over Green Bay. (6) Rams at (3) Lions (-3), 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC). For their first home playoff game in 30 years, the Lions will be welcoming an old friend back to Detroit: Matthew Stafford. The Rams QB led the Lions to the playoffs three times, but never got to play a home game. This will also be a huge game for Jared Goff, who will be facing a team and a head coach that traded him away because they didn't want him anymore. |
| Monday, Jan. 15 |
| (5) Eagles at (4) Buccaneers (+2.5), 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). The Eagles are stumbling into the playoffs, but they will head to Tampa Bay knowing that they beat the Buccaneers 25-11 at Raymond James Stadium back in Week 3. |
| The Ravens and 49ers also made the playoffs, but they both got a first-round bye, so they won't be on the field until the divisional round. |
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| 4. Ranking the playoff teams: Ravens and 49ers at the top |
| As you've probably noticed, we love to rank things here at CBS Sports so in news that probably won't come as a huge surprise, we decided to rank this year's playoff field. There are a total of 14 teams and based on Cody Benjamin's rankings, things are pretty top-heavy in the AFC with that conference earning three of the top four spots. |
| Here's how Cody's rankings broke down: |
1. Ravens (13-4)
2. 49ers (12-5)
3. Bills (11-6)
4. Chiefs (11-6)
5. Cowboys (12-5)
6. Lions (12-5)
7. Dolphins (11-6)
8. Rams (10-7)
9. Texans (10-7)
10. Browns (11-6)
11. Packers (9-8)
12. Eagles (11-6)
13. Steelers (10-7)
14. Buccaneers (9-8) |
| If you want to read Cody's entire rankings, be sure to click here. If you're a Browns fan who wants to complain to Cody about his Cleveland ranking, you can find him on Twitter by clicking here. |
| 5. 13 crazy stats from Week 18: Belichick ties record for most losses |
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| Every Sunday night I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 13 crazy facts about Week 18: |
Bill Belichick sets ugly NFL record. The loss to the Jets was the 165th of Belichick's career, which puts him in a tie with Dan Reeves and Jeff Fisher for the most in NFL history. If Belichick is still coaching next season, he'll have the record to himself after he suffers his first loss. AFC North makes history. The Bengals' win over the Browns means that every team in the division finished with a winning record, which is notable, because it makes the AFC North the first division since 1935 to have every team finish over .500. Four times the fun in Detroit. The Lions had four players this season finish with at least 10 touchdowns (David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta), which makes them just the second team in NFL history to accomplish that. The only other team to pull it off was the 2013 Broncos, who had five players hit the 10 TD mark in a season where Peyton Manning was the QB. Sam LaPorta sets rookie record. The Lions tight end finished with five receptions against the Vikings, which gives him 86 for the season. That's a new NFL record for a rookie tight end, breaking Keith Jackson's previous record of 81, which had stood since 1988. LaPorta also became just the second rookie at any position to finish with at least 85 receptions and 10 touchdowns (Odell Beckham is the only other player to hit those numbers as a rookie).
Nacua sets rookie record. After catching four passes for 41 yards against the 49ers, Puca Nakua finished the season with 105 catches for 1,486 yards, which are both rookie records. The yardage record of 1,473, which was previously held by Bill Groman, had stood for 63 years.
Evan Engram comes close to tight end record. The Jaguars tight end caught 10 passes against the Titans, which gave him 114 for the season. That number marks the second-highest total in NFL history for a tight end, trailing only Zach Ertz, who caught 116 in 2018.
Dak Prescott is almost perfect. The Cowboys QB completed 86.1% of his passes, which marks the fourth time this season that he's completed at least 80% of his passes in a game where he had 30 or more attempts. That makes him the only QB in NFL history to hit that completion rate four times in one season. CeeDee Lamb can't be stopped. The Cowboys receiver finished with 13 receptions against Washington, which marks the seventh game this season where he's had at least 11 catches. That tops Micheal Thomas for the most games in a single season with at least 11 receptions. Texans pull off an NFL first. The Texans clinched the AFC South on Sunday after the Jaguars' loss and that's a big deal, because it makes them the first team in NFL history to win a division with a rookie head coach AND a rookie quarterback (who made at least 10 starts).
It's not over until it's over. The Packers, Rams and Buccaneers were all at least three games under .500 at some point this season, which is notable, because it marks the first time in NFL history that three teams have made the playoffs in the same season after being three or more games under .500.T.J. Watt sets sacks record. The Steelers star pass-rusher led the NFL in sacks this season with 19. This marks the third time that Watt has led the NFL in sacks, which is the most by any player since the NFL started recording individual sacks back in 1982 (Watt suffered an injury in the Steelers' regular-season finale and you can read the latest on his status here).Comeback kids. By winning the AFC East, the Bills became just the fourth team in NFL history to win a division after trailing by three games or more with five or fewer games left on the schedule. The Bills join the 1973 Bengals, 2008 Chargers and 2022 Jaguars.No repeat champion in the NFC East. For the 19th straight year, the NFC East did NOT have a repeat champion, which is the longest streak in NFL history. After winning the title in 2022, it looked like the Eagles were going to repeat in 2023 following a 10-1 start, but they collapsed down the stretch and the Cowboys were able to steal the title. |
| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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| 6. NFL Draft order: Bears, Commanders and Patriots get the top three picks |
| For the second straight year, the Bears will be going into the offseason with the No. 1 overall pick. Last year, they eventually traded that pick away to the Panthers in a deal that gave them Carolina's first-round pick for 2024, which is why the Bears are now picking at the top of the draft. |
| Thanks to that deal, the Bears will have TWO picks in the top nine this year. |
| With that in mind, here is the official order for the top 18 spots in the draft: |
1. Bears (7-10) via 2-15 Panthers
2. Commanders (4-13)
3. Patriots (4-13)
4. Cardinals (4-13)
5. Chargers (5-12)
6. Giants (6-11)
7. Titans (6-11)
8. Falcons (7-10)
9. Bears (7-10)
10. Jets (7-10)
11. Vikings (7-10)
12. Broncos (8-9)
13. Raiders (8-9)
14. Saints (9-8)
15. Colts (9-8)
16. Seahawks (9-8)
17. Jaguars (9-8)
18. Bengals (9-8) |
| With the Bears getting the top pick, you might be wondering that they'll do with it and we have the answer right here in Ryan Wilson's latest mock draft, so be sure to click over. As for the rest of the draft order, we won't know where the other 14 teams fall until they get eliminated from the postseason |
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