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| Tuesday, November 28, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| When I turned on the Vikings-Bears game last night, I had very low expectations that we'd actually get an entertaining game, but somehow, the two teams managed to defy all the odds by giving us possibly the most entertaining 12-10 game in NFL history. |
| We'll be grading both teams in today's newsletter, plus we have Prisco's latest Power Rankings and we'll be breaking down the playoff picture now that Week 12 is over. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Early bets for Week 13 |
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| With Week 12 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 13 today by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. |
| During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by SportsLine gambling gurus Emory Hunt and Alex Selesnick. |
| The crew covered several of their favorite early bets for Week 13 and we're going to look at a couple of those below. |
| Mox: Seahawks at Cowboys OVER 46 points. With the Cowboys averaging 41 points per game at home this year, Mox is pretty confident that the over is going to hit when these two teams play on Thursday. "I like the over here. The over has hit in seven of the Cowboys' 11 games this season including four of their past five. Also, the over has hit in four of their five home games." Selesnick: 49ers to beat the Eagles. Prop Starz is actually an Eagles fan, but he thinks the 49ers will have the upper hand this week. "I think this is going to be a tough spot for my Eagles. They're coming off two highly emotional victories, winning at Arrowhead and at home against the Bills in overtime. And then you have a 49ers team coming off 10 days of rest. Dating back to the NFC title game last year, [the 49ers] going to have a bad taste in their mouth. Both teams are going to be up for this, but I think this is a spot for the 49ers where everything points in their favor, except that it's in Philadelphia." |
| If you want to hear the rest of the props and early best bets for Week 13, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Monday night grades after the Bears' wild 12-10 win over Vikings |
| If the Bears' plan is to play the role of spoiler down the stretch, then they're off to a good start. On a wild night in Minnesota, the Bears outlasted the Vikings in a surprisingly good game that had two lead changes over the final six minutes. |
| With the loss, the Vikings (6-6) fell one spot down from the sixth seed to the seventh seed in the NFC playoff race. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| BEARS GRADE: C+ |
| The Bears became the first team this season to win a game without scoring a touchdown and they were able to do that thanks in large part to a wildly impressive defensive performance. The defense came up with four interceptions, including a huge pick from T.J. Edwards in the second half that came after Minnesota had driven into Chicago territory. Montez Sweat also came up big for Chicago. The newcomer recorded 1.5 of Chicago's two sacks on a night where the defense put a lot of pressure on Josh Dobbs. Offensively, Justin Fields almost gave the game away with two fourth-quarter fumbles, but he was able to rebound to lead a 66-yard drive that led to Cairo Santos' game-winning field goal. A 36-yard catch by D.J. Moore set up the kick, which was fitting, because Moore (11 catches for 114 yards) was one of the few offensive bright spots on the night for Chicago. |
| Bears notes |
| Bears somehow win without scoring a TD. The craziest part about the Bears' win is that they did it without scoring a touchdown. Going into Monday, NFL teams were a combined 0-28 this year in any game where they didn't score a touchdown. For the Bears, this marked their first win without scoring a TD since 1993 when Jim Harbaugh led them to a 6-0 win over the Falcons. The Bears then lost 39 straight games without scoring a TD before Monday night. |
| VIKINGS GRADE: C- |
| The Josh Dobbs magic might have finally run out for the Vikings. After two impressive starts for Minnesota, Dobbs came crashing back to earth on a night where he threw four interceptions. Dobbs almost made up for his mistakes by leading a late TD drive that briefly gave Minnesota the lead, but the defense couldn't stop the Bears from driving 66 yards for a game-winning field goal. It's hard to put much blame on Minnesota's defense, though, because this game would have turned into a blowout if not for them. The Vikings were only able to keep it close because their defense kept the Bears out of the end zone while also forcing two turnovers. The Vikings actually had a chance to put this game away with just under four minutes left, but Kevin O'Connell went way too conservative with his late-game play calls. This loss definitely stings, but if there's one bright spot for the Vikings, it's that they should have Justin Jefferson back the next time on they're on the field following their Week 13 bye. |
| Vikings notes |
| Josh Dobbs has a total meltdown. The Vikings quarterback threw four interceptions, which marks just the second time this season that a QB has thrown four picks in a game. Before Monday, the only other time it happened came back in Week 3 when Sam Howell threw four in a 37-3 loss to the Bills. NFL teams are now a combined 1-63 since the start of the 2014 season when their QB throws at least four picks in a game. |
| Dobbs was so bad on Monday that Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell wouldn't make any promises about who the starting QB will be after the Vikings' Week 13 bye. |
| If you want to check out more of our takeaways from the game, be sure to click here. |
| 3. Prisco's Power Rankings heading into Week 13 |
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| The NFC East has taken over Pete Prisco's Power Rankings. The two top teams in the division are now also the two top teams in Prisco's rankings. With that in mind, let's check out his top five heading into Week 13: |
| Eagles (Same as last week)Cowboys (Up one spot from last week)Chiefs (Up one spot from last week)49ers (Up one spot from last week)Dolphins (Up one spot from last week) |
| Dropped out: Lions |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Falcons. Following their huge divisional win over the Saints, Prisco moved them up six spots from 24th to 18th. Of course, that tells you all you need to know about how Prisco feels about the NFC South: The first-place team in the division is only ranked 18th overall in the NFL. In the AFC, the biggest jump went to both the Steelers and Broncos, who each moved up five spots. The Broncos are now on the cusp of the top 10: Thanks to their win over the Browns, Prisco moved them up five spots from 16th to 11th. As for the Steelers, they made the jump from 14th to ninth for beating the Bengals. That seems like quite the jump for beating a Burrow-less Bengals team. The biggest drop this week went to the Browns. With Cleveland's offense struggling, Prisco has basically given up on the team. The Browns dropped nine spots from seventh down to 16th following their loss to the Broncos. Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. The Panthers have been ranked 32nd for the past few weeks and nothing will be changing this week. Panthers owner David Tepper must have been tired of seeing his team at the bottom of these rankings because he decided to fire his coach on Monday.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 13 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
| If you love when we rank things, we actually have more rankings for you today. We ranked every AFC playoff contender, which you can see here. And if you're a fan of an NFC team, don't worry, we didn't leave you guys out. We ranked the NFC playoff contenders here. |
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| 4. Breech's Week 13 picks: Cowboys beat Seahawks, Broncos upset Texans |
| It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing around these parts: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| As most of you know at this point, this is the part of the newsletter where I give you three picks and then we cross our fingers and hope all three picks are right. |
| Here are three of my picks for Week 13. |
| Seattle (6-5) at Dallas (8-3) -- Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon): The Cowboys have been unbeatable at home this year. Not only are they 5-0, but they've won all five games by at least 20 points making them the ONLY team in NFL history to win their first five homes games of the season by 20 points. That's good enough for me. PICK: Cowboys 24-17 over SeahawksDenver (6-5) at Houston (6-5): The Broncos currently have the longest winning streak in the NFL and a big reason for that is because their defense has forced 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak. And now, they get to face a QB in C.J. Stroud who has turned the ball over six times in the past three weeks. This feels like a situation that probably won't end well for the Texans. PICK: Broncos 23-20 over TexansSan Francisco (8-3) at Philadelphia (10-1): This truly feels like a coin-flip game and I'm rolling with the 49ers for two reasons: First, they're going to be desperate. If they want to have any shot at the No. 1 overall seed, they have to win this game. Second, the 49ers will be coming into this game on 10 days of rest, which I think is a huge advantage in a game like this. PICK: 49ers 30-23 over Eagles |
| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 13, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL playoff picture heading into Week 13 |
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| With the NFL season heading into December this week, now seems like a good time to break down the playoff picture. |
| Here's a look at the top-seven teams from each conference: |
AFC
1. Ravens (AFC North leader, 9-3)
2. Chiefs (AFC West leader, 8-3)
3. Jaguars (AFC South leader, 8-3)
4. Dolphins (AFC East leader, 8-3)
5. Steelers (7-4)
6. Browns (7-4)
7. Colts (6-5)
First teams out: Texans (6-5), Broncos (6-5) |
| The battle for the top seed in the AFC is going to be a dog fight. Ever since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams back in 2020, the No. 1 seed has had extra importance, because it's the only seed that gets a bye. Although the Ravens are on top right now, it won't be easy for them to stay there and that's mostly because they have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL. On the other hand, the Chiefs have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the AFC. |
NFC
1. Eagles (NFC East leader, 10-1)
2. 49ers (NFC West leader, 8-3)
3. Lions (NFC North leader, 8-3)
4. Falcons (NFC South leader, 5-6)
5. Cowboys (8-3)
6. Seahawks (6-5)
7. Vikings (6-6)
First teams out: Packers (5-6), Rams (5-6) |
| At this point, it feels like four of the seven spots in the NFC are locked up with the Eagles, 49ers, Lions and Cowboys all likely getting in. To miss the playoffs, one of those teams would have to totally collapse. The current playoff team that's in the most trouble right now is probably the Seahawks. Over the next three weeks, Seattle will be facing the Cowboys, 49ers and Eagles, and with that slate, there's a very real chance the Seahawks could be under .500 before we get to Christmas. The Vikings are also on shaky ground following their loss to the Bears. |
| If you want a full look at the playoff standings, we've got the right here. |
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| 6. Extra points: HOF semifinalist names revealed |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Pro Football Hall of Fame reveals semifinalist list. The Pro Football Hall of Fame has named its 25 modern-era semifinalists for the class for 2024. The list includes two players who are in their first year of eligibility: Julius Peppers and Antonio Gates. On the flip side, there's also Hines Ward and Darren Woodson, who have both been named a semifinalist for the EIGHTH time. You can see the full semifinalist list here . The semifinalists will be trimmed down to 15 finalists at some point in early January. After that, the committee will vote on the class of 2024 just before the Super Bowl. Jonathan Taylor could miss some time. The Colts running back suffered a thumb injury on Sunday that could knock him out for a little bit. According to NFL.com, the injury will "put his status in doubt going forward." If Taylor is out, that means Zack Moss will be getting the brunt of the carries for the 6-5 Colts. Dolphins sign two-time Super Bowl champion. With Jaelan Phillips out for the season, the Dolphins added some pass-rushing help on Monday by signing Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP had just signed with the Saints last week and he even played for them on Sunday against the Falcons. However, he reverted back to the practice squad after the game and that's how the Dolphins got him (A team can sign another team's practice squad players as long as the new teams puts the player on their active roster). Greg Olsen interested in Panthers' head-coaching job. With the Panthers now looking for a new coach, at least one person has already thrown his hat in the ring: Greg Olsen. The Fox NFL announcer, who spent nine seasons playing for the Panthers, is willing to interview for the vacant head job, according to The Athletic. You can read more about Olsen here.
Panthers fire two assistant coaches. In other Panthers news, the team ended up dumping two more coaches after firing Frank Reich. Panthers QB coach Josh McCown and assistant head coach/running backs coach Duce Staley are also out of a job as of Monday. Jaguars place their starting left tackle on IR. The Jaguars' offensive line took a big hit this week with the loss of Cam Robinson. The left tackle, who injured his knee on Sunday against the Texans, has been placed on IR. The move means that Robinson will miss at least the next four games, which will come against the Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Buccaneers. With Robinson out, the Jags are expected to bump Walker Little over from left guard to left tackle (That's what they did Sunday) and Ezra Cleveland will move to left guard.
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