What was the probability that a medievalist would take part in a panel on Baysean theory as part of the decennial conference for Durham University's Institute of Advanced Study? Well, a subjective Bayesean analysis would, in all likelihood, have indicated a high probability. If probability is 'the value at which an expectation depending on the happening of the event ought to be computed, and the value of the thing expected upon its happening', then the conference and the medievalists attendance was indeed likely.