As the war in Ukraine grinds on, Russians have acted as if nothing has really changed on the home front. Their unruffled attitudes persist despite setbacks on the battlefield, partial mobilizations, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. Although Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s shocking rebellion in June—and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s handling of it—deeply disturbed Moscow’s elite, it did not seem to disrupt the status quo.

But “don’t be fooled,” writes Tatiana Stanovaya in a new essay for Foreign Affairs. The war in Ukraine has begun to change Russia, and “profound internal shifts are likely underway—in Putin’s regime, in the elites’ perception of Putin, and in the public’s attitude toward the war.” Rather than bringing down Putin’s regime, “these developments are transforming Russia into a far less cohesive entity, one rife with internal contradictions and conflicts, more volatile and lacking predictability,” Stanovaya warns. And “the more challenges the regime faces, the more quickly it will evolve into something darker.”