| Good morning Voornaam, Another year, another story of constant currency vs. reported earnings at MTN. Here's the problem: if you are growing quickly in a country where the currency is falling through the floor, then this might look very impressive in that currency, but not when expressed in a stable currency. If you can believe it, the rand is the stable currency compared to what we see in Africa! The latest MTN results are a great way to learn about this impact.
Over at RFG Holdings, forex was just one of the pain points in their international business. Other issues included deciduous fruit contracts not being honoured by offshore customers, as well as a problematic shortage of pineapples of all things. Clearly, despite how the joke goes, there are quite a few people who want them for pizza! Overall, it's a tough interim period for the food group.
We also didn't see great numbers at Thungela, although that's largely a function of coal prices that are outside of their control. At least the Thungela balance sheet is in good shape and they can continue with dividends and buybacks. In contrast, I would keep a very close eye on the Hulamin balance sheet if I was invested there, particularly as debt has taken a nasty turn higher thanks to capex being far in excess of cash generated from operations.
Last but certainly not least, we've seen the game of musical chairs play out once more in the banking industry. Absa has pulled off quite a coup, convincing Kenny Fihla to leave his role as Deputy Chief Executive of Standard Bank and take the top job at the red bank instead.
Get my analysis on all these updates (plus the Nibbles) in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
The latest Magic Markets episode helps you lift your head from the markets and consider an alternative asset class. The returns might be more volatile than your average equity portfolio, but at least you can enjoy your investment on your wall. Yes, with the help of Tristanne Farell at Investec, we covered the art of investing in art! Enjoy this fun and insightful discussion here>>>
Here's another head-lifter for you: Dominique Olivier's latest column! Remember the hole in the ozone layer? Ever wondered why you simply don't hear about it anymore? No news really is good news in this case, with this piece looking back on how the world came together to solve this problem. Treat as some inspiration to get your week off to the right start!
In case you missed it, make sure you've checked out the recent episode of No Ordinary Wednesday. Hosted by Jeremy Maggs and part of the excellent Investec Focus Radio stable, this episode focuses on whether China is Trump-proof. Find it here>>>
Have a great day - and remember to sign up for Unlock the Stock with Fortress Real Estate this Thursday 20th March at 12pm. As always, attendance is free. You just need to register here>>> |
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| SATRIX: Don't waste the TFSA opportunity |
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| | | Tax-free savings accounts (TFSA) are one of the most building blocks in any equity portfolio. The advantage of compounding tax-free returns over a long period is incredibly powerful and can really turbocharge a long-term wealth creation journey.
To discuss the importance of TFSA investments and the opportunities available to investors in the ETF universe, familiar voice Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix returned to the Ghost Stories podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Retailers on sale on the JSE - a review of the first few weeks of 2025 |
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| The retail sector got off to a very poor start in 2025. With practically the entire sector down, are there stocks that were punished more than they should've been?
This podcast is a useful summary of recent retail updates across the clothing and grocery sectors, as well as other relevant areas.
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | RFG Holdings needs more pineapples. MTN needs African currencies to behave themselves. Hulamin needs a better balance sheet. Thungela needs coal prices to go higher. Oh yes, and Standard Bank needs a new Deputy CEO! Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Afrimat |
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| In the 48th edition of Unlock the Stock, popular JSE mid-cap Afrimat returned to the platform for a management presentation and interactive Q&A with attendees of the webinar. The recording is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Ozone: how a hole taught humanity to collaborate |
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| | | In a world of polarised viewpoints and much shouting, Dominique Olivier took the opportunity this week to write about something rare: a moment when the world didn’t just come together, but actually got it right. A global effort so successful, so decisive, that it stands as one of the greatest acts of collaboration in human history. There's a reason why you never heard about the hole in the ozone layer anymore. Read it here>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Is China Trump-proof? |
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| | | Tariffs may have a diminished impact on China, as the country has strategically restructured its supply chains to lessen its reliance on the US. This is according to Campbell Parry, global resources analyst at Investec Wealth and Investment International, on the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday available here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Another way to see the pressure in the motoring industry is to look further up the value chain. Chinese battery maker CATL posted its first annual drop in revenue since it started reporting operating figures in 2015, with weaker than expected demand for EVs leading to a price war among manufacturers. In that scenario, the pressure always flows back up into the value chain.
CATL is expected to list in Hong Kong, so the last thing they need right now is revenue pressure. At least the Chinese EV market continues to go from strength to strength, with BYD announcing a fast charging platform that it plans to roll out across China.
Tell me again about Tesla's moat?
The world is changing, fast. This is why we covered BAE Systems in Magic Markets Premium recently, as understanding elements of this defence theme is well worth your time. The company finds itself in an interesting position, with strong links into the US, European and allied military budgets. It's a better business than many of the continental Europe names, as reflected in the valuation. Our subscribers can enjoy our detailed work on this growth stock. |
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| Magic Markets: Buying gold on the blockchain |
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| | | Magic Markets: If there’s one thing the markets taught us recently, it’s that gold remains as relevant as ever. Mesh Trade brings you a new way to invest in this store of value, giving you a perfect example of tradition combined with tech.
For a limited time, Mesh investors can buy Krugerrands at the best retail price in the market and on a fractional basis using blockchain technology. Mesh also offers a wide range of tokenised financial assets, giving investors a multi-asset solution on a single platform.
To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| US stock indices rebounded overnight from oversold levels as markets assessed the latest economic data to gauge the effects of the Trump administration's policies.
February retail sales showed a slight recovery but missed expectations, reflecting growing uncertainty over tariffs and federal employee layoffs. Meanwhile, March factory activity recorded its sharpest decline in nearly two years, signalling potential economic challenges ahead. These indicators have contributed to a more dovish interest rate outlook.
The US dollar is trading near five-month lows against the euro and other major currencies, reflecting shifting monetary policy expectations and trade concerns.
The Hang Seng Index has surged to a three-year high, primarily driven by technology sector gains. This rally has been supported by new Chinese stimulus measures and positive economic data.
European index futures have paused near short-term highs.
The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open flat to modestly higher this morning after having gained along with its international peers yesterday. The rand is trading at its best levels of the year against a softer US dollar.
Oil prices moved slightly higher this morning, finding support from Middle East geopolitical tensions and China's stimulus efforts. However, global growth concerns, US tariff policies, and ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks are limiting further price advances.
Gold has breached the $3000/oz mark once again supported by a softer dollar and geopolitical uncertainty.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.07/$ | US 10yr 4.30% | Gold $3,017/oz | Platinum $1,030/oz | Brent Crude $71.48
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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