Mr Price: what's the strategy?

Good morning Voornaam,

Hello from Le Mans, which is absolutely everything I had hoped for, multiplied by 100. The campsite is adorned with the finest metal (literally - you camp regardless of what you arrive in), which almost makes up for the incredible love of sloppy baked beans that seems to be a feature of the British. I'm staying with a group of British enthusiasts who make an annual trip to the race. There's just no replacement for local knowledge, something that many corporates have learnt the hard way. And credit where credit is due: Vodacom, your roaming app is phenomenal. Even those with phones that can handle eSIM apps have been struggling here. My Vodacom bundle hasn't dropped me once, includng a video call in the car yesterday in the French countryside. Well done for a great product Vodacom!
Fresh out the oven:

Ghost Bites: Mr Price is treading water, but not much more than that right now unless the second half momentum can continue. Gold Fields has weather problems at Salares Norte. enX closed the Eqstra deal. Novus updated its earnings guidance. Ghost Bites>>>

The team at DealMakers has delivered great summaries of local M&A, local corporate finance deals as well as recent deals in Africa. There's also a piece on M&A in the digital age and trends in African M&A.

There's a Ghost Wrap podcast that I put together just before leaving. You need just five minutes to get up to speed on Capital Appreciation, MultiChoice, Spar and The Foschini Group, thanks to Mazars. Find it here>>>

In a new Magic Markets, we unpacked the different types of US jobs data releases and why they matter to investors across the world - including in South Africa. Give your global markets knowledge a boost with this podcast>>>

In case you missed it:

There is only one free lunch in investing, as this Ghost Stories episode with Kingsley Williams shows. We had an excellent general conversation about investing. Brought to you by Satrix, you can enjoy it here>>>

Fedgroup thinks differently about portfolio construction and how important elements like yield and inflation protection can be brought in. Michael Field joined me to discuss their approach. Find it here>>>

Elizabeth Magie invented Monopoly in 1903. It just took a long time and a decade-long court case for the world to remember that. This is the story of how Parker Brothers monopolised Monopoly - and how one man took them down. Told by Dominique Olivier, you can read it here>>>

This year, SA is set to become the tenth-largest solar market in the world. In episode 4 of The Current brought to you by Investec, Iman Rappetti spoke with Investec's Melanie Humphries, Bernard Geldenhuys and De Wet Taljaard from the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA) to explore SA’s apparent solar boom. Enjoy it here>>>​

The only free lunch in investing

Local company news:

Although Mr Price may have delivered a strong second half performance, there are reasons to be worried about the strategy - or relative lack thereof. I just don't see them making an effort to win in one particular arena. For example, online sales went backwards at a time when TFG is crushing it in Bash.
Gold Fields is on the wrong side of cold winter in Chile, with Salares Norte decreasing its production guidance based on the early onset of winter during the ramp-up phase.
At enX, the Eqstra deal has been closed and a special dividend has been declared.
And at Novus, there's an updated trading statement with earnings guidance.
These stories are all covered in detail in Ghost Bites at this link>>>

Steal, hustle and lie: the Monopoly story

International business news:

Family businesses. Without discipline, they can become disasters. The CFO of Tyson Foods has been suspended after being arrested for the second time in alcohol-related charges. The first time, he woke up intoxicated in the wrong house. The second time, he was driving. And the catch? He is the son of the company's chairman. Hmmm.
I'm looking forward to digging into the Stellantis numbers and the outcome of the investor day they held yesterday. They seem to have done a lot of self-reflection, especially around inventory strategies. Stellantis has lost a lot of ground in the US, which is particularly shocking when you consider that they have brands like Jeep. Look out for this next week in Magic Markets Premium.
We covered Lululemon in Magic Markets Premium this week. To get access to this research and the rest of the vast library, subscribe to the platform here.

Macroeconomic Update

After late night discussions yesterday, there seems to be tentative agreement around a government of national unity comprising several parties. The rand will benefit from some clarity around this, which should hopefully come this week. Our currency provided resilient despite a surge in the dollar last night.
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged, as was expected, while announcing plans to cut back on the bond-buying program.
The hawkish shift in the Fed's rate cut projections continues to weigh on metal prices. Gold is just above $2,300 and PGMs are under pressure.
Key indicators: USD/ZAR R18.47; US 10-year 4.27%; Gold $2,306; Platinum ZAR R17,62; Brent Crude $82.34
This macroeconomic update is based on TreasuryONE's morning update.