Mortgage Rates Unchanged After Inflation Report Threads The Needle

When it comes to interest rates reacting to scheduled economic reports, the magnitude of the reaction is generally correlated with the extent to which the data comes out better or worse than expected. Said more simply, the stronger the economic data is relative to expectations, the more rates tend to rise. The weaker the data is, the more rates tend to fall. Of course there's a third scenario where the data comes out almost perfectly in line with the median economic forecast. In those cases, there can still be subtleties in certain economic reports that tip the scales in one direction or the other. Then again, sometimes those subtleties balance each other out, or they simply fail to catch the market's attention. In today's case, rates were waiting on the results of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--the most widely traded inflation report on any given month. The top line numbers definitely threaded the needle with core inflation hitting 0.3% versus a median forecast of 0.3% in month-over-month terms. That was the most important number of the day. The internal numbers weren't perfectly balanced and they resulted in some upward pressure on rates, but it was only really detectable in the underlying bond market. Reason being: bonds were stronger overnight. Mortgage lenders would have been in a position to offer lower rates this morning, but due to the modestly negative impact from the CPI components, the bond market ended up right in line with yesterday's latest levels by the time mortgage rates came out for the day.

December 12, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Unchanged After Inflation Report Threads The Needle When it comes to interest rates reacting to scheduled economic reports, the magnitude of the reaction is generally correlated with the extent to which the data comes out better or worse than expected. Said more simply, the stronger the economic... (read more) MBS Commentary Dots, Dots, Dots, Dots Dots, Dots, Dots, Dots What's the most important ingredient in tomorrow's Fed announcement and related events? The dots, of course! Released in the Fed's quarterly summary of economic projections, the d... (read more) Rob Chrisman Super Jumbo, HELOC, DSCR, CRM Texting, Servicing Rights, QC Products; Fannie/Freddie Updates Today I head to Northern California, home of plenty of technology. The other day I went to the doctor and the receptionist handed me a tablet and said, “Please fill out these medical forms on the screen, which are identical to the ones you filled out... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.09% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.09% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.50% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.42% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.53% -0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.65% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.42% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/12 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.50% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.03% -0.19 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.29% -0.27 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.17% -0.20 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 6.80% -0.08 0.77 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.35% -0.19 0.44 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/6 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.80 +0.17 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.80 +0.17 UMBS 6.5 101.91 +0.05 GNMA 6.0 101.14 +0.16 GNMA 6.5 102.02 +0.08 Pricing as of: 12/12 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2080 -0.0290 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.727 +0.017 5 YR Treasury 4.220 -0.026 7 YR Treasury 4.244 -0.033 10 YR Treasury 4.208 -0.029 30 YR Treasury 4.318 -0.010 Pricing as of: 12/12 5:31PM EST Latest Video Cantor Fitzgerald CEO: Won't see real rate cuts until the economy really ne... CNBC Fed Survey: Respondents boosted the probability of a soft landing to 4... Consumer prices rose 0.1% month over month in November NEC Director Lael Brainard: The trend on inflation is reassuring, and what ... Around the Web Marketwatch Bond yields always fall before Federal Reserve pivots to cut interest rates, research says CNBC Consumer prices rose 0.1% in November from the prior month CNBC Fed to start cutting rates midyear in 2024 with high chance of soft landing, CNBC Fed survey finds Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December CNBC Regulators caught Wells Fargo, other banks in probe over mortgage pricing discrimination CNBC Heres the inflation breakdown for November 2023 in one chart Eye on Housing Geography of Personal Income and Home building CNBC The Federal Reserve could achieve a soft landing after all. Here's what that would mean for you Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 CNBC Gas prices have fallen 19% since September, hit lowest point of year ahead of holiday Eye on Housing Consumer Credit Outstanding Edges Higher in October Eye on Housing Household Real Estate Asset Growth Continues in the Third Quarter of 2023 CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors await fresh inflation data

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