Mortgage Rates Rise After Inflation Data, But it Could Have Been Worse

Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields are only up 6bps, trading just under 4.16. That means the bond market is hanging on to all of the gains seen from the recent highs through last Tuesday--not a bad showing considering Core CPI came in a 0.4% for the 2nd month in a row (or that 10yr yields shot up to 4.3+ when that previous CPI report came out). In addition to rounding considerations (0.4 was really only 0.358), the details also showed a welcome drop in the problematic OER from 0.6 to 0.4. These factors helped bonds temporarily break even earlier this morning. Subsequent weakness was at least partially attributable to the approaching 10yr Treasury auction. Econ Data / EventsCore CPI m/m0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev Core y/y CPI3.8 vs 3.7 f'cast, 3.9 prev Market Movement Recap08:48 AM paradoxical reaction to CPI with 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.094. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) 09:35 AM Giving up the gains fairly convincingly now with 10yr up 4.9bps at 4.147 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16). 01:06 PM Weakest levels after the auction. 10yr up 7.2bps at 4.17. MBS down a quarter point. 03:47 PM Off the weakest levels and trading sideways after hours. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 6bps at 4.157.

March 12, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields are only up 6bps, trading just under 4.16. That means the bond market is hangi... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Rise After Inflation Data, But it Could Have Been Worse Today brought the release of one of the most consequential economic reports that comes out on any given month: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI measures inflation and inflation is a big deal for interest rates. Higher inflation means h... (read more) Rob Chrisman MSR buyer, Hedging, Non-Agency, QC, Workflow, Servicing Products; Moving Stats; Oh Fudge! “I heard that 80 percent of car accidents occur within one mile of a person's residence, so I moved.” But it turns out that moving doesn't improve your driving, although it does improve lender’s volumes. Home Bay just published a survey that found 75... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.92% +0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.44% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.42% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.24% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.60% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.45% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/12 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.44% +0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.22% -0.04 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.07 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.53% +0.12 0.94 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.00% +0.12 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.55 -0.14 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.55 -0.14 UMBS 6.0 100.94 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.86 -0.17 GNMA 6.0 100.84 -0.06 Pricing as of: 3/12 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.1510 +0.0530 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.588 +0.050 5 YR Treasury 4.151 +0.061 7 YR Treasury 4.161 +0.061 10 YR Treasury 4.151 +0.053 30 YR Treasury 4.311 +0.049 Pricing as of: 3/12 5:31PM EST Latest Video Former Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren: The Fed should be 'forecast depende... Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago CPI data very consistent with Fed easing rates in June, says former PIMCO c... The economy has to slow for us to see inflation come down: Thornburg Invest... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in February; Core CPI increased 0.4% Calculated Risk Blog YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter CNBC A key inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning. Here's what to expect CNBC Consumer spending rebounded in February, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Marketwatch Treasury yields end at one-week highs after February's CPI inflation report cfpb Junk fees are driving up housing costs. The CFPB wants to hear from you. Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February; Inventory Continues to Surge in Florida USA Today HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge to resign, says affordable housing is 'an American issue' Eye on Housing Housing Continues to Keep Inflation Elevated CNBC Treasury yields dip ahead of consumer inflation data Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Rent Trends at some Large Holders of Multifamily Properties Marketwatch Treasury yields turn mixed after solid 3-year auction ahead of Tuesday's CPI data Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.3% Year-over-year

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