Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways After Dodging Mid-Day Drama

Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond market enjoyed today's version. It involved reports that Trump was considering firing Powell. Forget the nitty gritty details because markets took it very seriously if volume is any indication (highest since tariff announcement week in April). Those who pay close attention were not-at-all-surprised to see longer-term yields RISING in response. After all, a more dovish Fed could only directly control overnight rates. This is enough to maybe help 2yr Treasuries and under, but from there on up, bonds price in higher inflation and lower global confidence in the dollar and US Treasuries. Trump later said he's not considering firing Powell, but bonds remained skeptical with 2yr vs 10yr spreads only reversing about half of the mid-day spike. This shows that traders felt a bit spooked about owning longer term debt in a world where something like this might actually happen, and thus re-allocated toward shorter-term debt for now. Scary-sounding stuff aside, 10yr yields and MBS both made solid enough gains on the day. All the drama transpired behind the scenes as far as rates were concerned (apart from a small handful of lenders who repriced for worse before repricing for the better). Econ Data / EventsCore PPI M/M0.0 vs 0.2 f'cast last month revised to 0.4 from 0.1 Core PPI Y/Y2.6 vs 2.7 f'cast, 3.0 prev Market Movement Recap08:32 AM Slightly stronger after PPI. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.46 11:42 AM Bonds selling off on headlines regarding Trump considering firing Powell. MBS now unchanged on the day and 10yr nearly unchanged at 4.48 12:41 PM Headlines retracted, but bonds not retracing the weakness. 10yr still close to unchanged at 4.48. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) on the day

July 16, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum Bonds Give Free Preview of Post-Powell Momentum Everyone loves a good free preview, but not all of the bond market enjoyed today's version. It involved reports that Trump was considering firing Powell. Forget... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Mostly Sideways After Dodging Mid-Day Drama This morning brought another inflation report. Given the negative reaction to yesterday's inflation data, there was some cause for concern. Thankfully, today's data was more unequivocally acceptable for the bond market and--thus--interest rates. Bond... (read more) Rob Chrisman TBA Settlement, Processing, HELOC, Purchase Advice Mgt. Tools; JPMorgan to Charge For Info? JPMorgan told FinTechs that it will charge for access to its customers’ bank information. The fees would bring big bucks to JPMorgan but eat into the profit margin of any lender or credit reporting agency or verification service. Will this become a t... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.83% -0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.83% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.08% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.41% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.93% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.32% +0.07 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.42% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/16 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.08% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.02 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.02 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.69% -0.09 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/9 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.11 +0.19 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.11 +0.19 UMBS 6.0 101.09 +0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.47 +0.11 GNMA 6.0 101.19 +0.03 Pricing as of: 7/16 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4523 -0.0320 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.890 -0.060 5 YR Treasury 3.988 -0.052 7 YR Treasury 4.207 -0.044 10 YR Treasury 4.452 -0.032 30 YR Treasury 5.007 -0.018 Pricing as of: 7/16 5:31PM EST Latest Video The Investment Committee weigh in on the market reaction to Trump possibly ... Former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner: The Fed likely won’t cut rates at Jul... June CPI rises 2.7% annually Wholesale inflation measure was unchanged in June Around the Web CNBC The lock-in effect is making it harder to buy a homeeven if mortgage rates fall Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June CNBC Weekly mortgage demand plummets 10%, as rates and economic concerns rise CNBC Inflation picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate Eye on Housing Permits Falls in May 2025 CNBC Wholesale inflation measure was unchanged in June Wells Fargo Spotting the Impact of Tariffs on the Consumer Calculated Risk Blog Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly" Eye on Housing Residential Remodelers Outnumber Single-family Builders in the U.S. CNBC U.S. Treasurys fall ahead of key June inflation data CNBC The next frontier in real estate: Data centers on the moon and space-support infrastructure CNBC Treasury yields inch lower as investors await more inflation data Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in June

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