Mortgage Rates Inch to Another Short Term High

Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range Today marked an uptick in the importance of economic data for the week and it had obvious consequences for volatility. Of particular importance was the higher reading in quarterly PCE prices. Because this is the first look at Q2 data, it's one of 4 days each year where the PCE component of the GDP data offers a sneak peek at the full PCE report that comes out the following morning. the 2.9 vs 2.7 reading suggests there's extra inflation that will be distributed between April, May, and June. If June accounts for more than the other two months, tomorrow's PCE index will be higher than expected, and thus bad for rates. That accounts for some weakness this morning, but traders are also in the midst of adjusting their yield curve positioning which has resulted in big discrepancies between longer and shorter term rates this week. Econ Data / EventsJobless Claims235k vs 238k f'cast, 245k prev Durable Goods-6.6 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Nondefense ex-air Durable Goods1.0 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.9 prev GDP 2.8 vs 2.7 f'cast Core PCE Prices Q/Q2.9 vs 2.7 f'cast Market Movement Recap08:56 AM Sharply stronger overnight but losing ground after data. MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr still down 5+ bps at 4.24. 11:51 AM Decent amount of volatility in the AM hours. Slightly negative drift, but MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr still down 6bps at 4.229 01:43 PM Generally weaker after the auction, with losses focused on the short end. MBS still up an eighth. 10yr still down 3bps, but near highs of day at 4.258

July 25, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range Lots of Competing Motivations Causing Volatility In a Narrow Range Today marked an uptick in the importance of economic data for the week and it had obvious consequences for volatility. Of particular im... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Inch to Another Short Term High Mortgage rates continue moving in very small steps from day to day--something that's been the case since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) more than 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, more of those steps have been higher in the past week, and today is no... (read more) Rob Chrisman Hedging, VOE, DPA Products; Wholesaler and Program Changes; STRATMOR Ops Workshop As lenders continue to deal with change (the latest rumors have Flagstar is selling its mortgage group to Mr. Cooper; rumor only, ask your rep for real information), many people took note when ex-President Trump claimed, during his recent speech, tha... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.91% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.91% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.33% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.38% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.07% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.55% -1.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.40% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/25 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.33% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.78% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.07% +0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/25 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.00% -0.03 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 6.63% +0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.13% +0.02 0.38 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.39 +0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.39 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 100.88 +0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.80 +0.14 GNMA 6.0 100.84 +0.14 Pricing as of: 7/25 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2481 -0.0411 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.433 -0.001 5 YR Treasury 4.136 -0.042 7 YR Treasury 4.175 -0.040 10 YR Treasury 4.248 -0.041 30 YR Treasury 4.494 -0.052 Pricing as of: 7/25 5:31PM EST Latest Video Former St. Louis Fed President: Probability of a recession isn't any higher... The Fed could cut rates by 50 basis points in September, says BMO's Yung-Yu... Concerns about unsold homes and price drops are unwarranted, says Evercore ... Regions Wealth's Alan McKnight expects a Fed rate cut in September Around the Web CNBC U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, more than expected Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.9% YoY Marketwatch Former Fed official Dudley backs July rate cut, worries labor market weakness might gather steam Eye on Housing U.S. Economic Growth Accelerated in Second Quarter Calculated Risk Blog Watch Months-of-Supply! Eye on Housing Housing Share of GDP Remains Above 16% Despite Marginal Declines in Residential Investment CNBC Treasury yields fall ahead of key economic data Calculated Risk Blog BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.8% Annualized Rate in Q2 CNBC Why an indicator that has foretold almost every recession doesn't seem to be working anymore Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 235,000 Marketwatch 2-year Treasury rallies on wave of risk-off sentiment, sending yield to lowest in more than five months Eye on Housing Sawmill Production Declines During First Quarter Calculated Risk Blog AIA: Architecture Billings Declined in June; Multi-family Billings Declined for 23rd Consecutive Month

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