Mortgage Rates' Impressive Winning Streak Faces Increasing Resistance

We occasionally reference 5 day winning streaks for mortgage rates as the sort of uncommon occurrence that greatly increases the odds of at least a temporary pullback. Longer streaks do happen, but odds of a pullback increase sharply after 8 days. With all that in mind, today marked the 8th straight day of improvement in mortgage rates. Does this mean we're destined to see rates move higher tomorrow? Not necessarily. First off, we can never be sure we're destined to see any particular outcome when it comes to the simple question of whether rates will move higher or lower over such a definite time frame. Perhaps more interesting is the fact that the underlying bond market (rates are a factor of bond prices) has already seen a mild pullback that began shortly after last Thursday's inflation data. It was just mild enough that the average mortgage lender was able to avoid increasing rates since then. Last but not least, rather than rely on precedent in the absence of context, we should consider that rates have been responsive to a small group of important economic reports. While it's not on the same level as last week's inflation data, tomorrow's Retail Sales data is one such report. Simply put, there's no magic rule that would preclude a 9 day winning streak if Retail Sales happened to fall far enough below forecasts. Conversely, if the data is surprisingly strong, rates would likely rise and it would have nothing to do with the low odds of 9 day winning streaks.

July 15, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates' Impressive Winning Streak Faces Increasing Resistance We occasionally reference 5 day winning streaks for mortgage rates as the sort of uncommon occurrence that greatly increases the odds of at least a temporary pullback. Longer streaks do happen, but odds of a pullback increase sharply after 8 da... (read more) MBS Commentary Another Chance to Assess Market Sensitivity to Politics While there's no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, history suggests--at the very least--that such occurrences are not damaging for a candidate's politi... (read more) Rob Chrisman AI Underwriting, DPA, POS, Insurance Tools, CFPB Townstone Case; Inflation Takeaways Yes, I know that this is a mortgage commentary, but some things are way above that. (Warning: tissues may be required; what’s happened legislatively since?) Dr. Ruth, who was sent to a Swiss orphanage by her parents were killed during the holocaust, ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.81% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.26% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.04% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.62% -0.13 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.29% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/15 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.30% -0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.89% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/11 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.00% -0.03 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 6.63% +0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.13% +0.02 0.38 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.97 -0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 100.97 -0.16 UMBS 6.5 102.23 -0.13 GNMA 6.0 100.87 -0.10 GNMA 6.5 101.67 -0.13 Pricing as of: 7/15 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2304 +0.0471 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.455 +0.001 5 YR Treasury 4.133 +0.032 7 YR Treasury 4.165 +0.040 10 YR Treasury 4.230 +0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.459 +0.064 Pricing as of: 7/15 5:31PM EST Latest Video Powell on inflation: Fed 'overestimated how quickly the economy would retur... Expect a Fed rate cut in September with quarterly cuts thereafter: JPMorgan... Powell's comments were a 'victory lap speech,' says Jeffries' David Zervos Powell: Fed pandemic policies 'will stand up well in history' Around the Web Marketwatch Nearly a third of home sellers are cutting prices as housing supply balloons in these areas CNBC Powell indicates Fed won't wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates CNBC 'Rentvesting' can be 'a good way to get into the property market,' economist says. Here's how it works CNBC Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on interest rate policy and the economy Eye on Housing Share of Homes Built on Slabs Surges to 72.4% CNBC 10-year Treasury yield rises as markets digest Trump assassination attempt Calculated Risk Blog Housing July 15th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 38.1% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024 Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June CNBC 'Rentvesting' can be 'a good way to get into the property market,' economist says. Here's how it works CNBC Macy's ends buyout talks with Arkhouse and Brigade after months of negotiations CNBC Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in June, slightly hotter than expected Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

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