Mortgage Rates Fall More Than Expected After Jobs Report

As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they passed the test. It wasn't that the headline job count was particularly low, but it wasn't strong enough to argue against the fact that the labor market has cooled off compared to the first half of the year, or that 2024 is much cooler than 2023. The simplest way to visualize the cooling is via this chart of the unemployment rate. It would be fair to point out that 4.2+ is still a historically low unemployment rate, but just as fair to point out that the unemployment rate tends to move with a sort of glacial momentum that rarely changes course abruptly. This cooling is one of the reasons the Fed decided to begin cutting rates in September. As we discussed in the weeks leading up to that, the market is able to anticipate those decisions, thus pushing rates lower before the Fed actually pulls the trigger. The same thing is arguably happening this week, especially after today's jobs report. 10yr Treasury yields serve as a benchmark for mortgage rates, indirectly. They can help us understand how rate sentiment reacts to data. Here's how they reacted today: In addition to the jobs report, Wednesday's ISM Services index was also rate-friendly (i.e. it came out weaker than expected). Mortgage rates don't always track perfectly with Treasury yields, but they've also been moving lower--especially after the jobs report. The average lender is at the best levels in a little over a month and a half.

December 6, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Fall More Than Expected After Jobs Report As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week's jobs report. Spoiler alert: they passed the test. It wasn't that the headline job count was particularly low, but it wasn't st... (read more) MBS Commentary Why Are Bonds Rallying Despite a Seemingly Decent Jobs Report? We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad for bonds/rates. So why are bonds rallying despite payrolls coming in at 227k versus a 200k for... (read more) Rob Chrisman Non-QM Jumbo, POS, Processing, AI U/W Tools; HUD/Rocket Suit, CFPB Unleashes; Curinos Volume Stats “Today’s three-year-olds can switch on laptops and open their favorite apps. When I was three, I ate mud.” Times change. Remember when homeowner’s insurance was an after-thought? In some counties and states, being approved for insurance has become as... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.68% -0.16% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.68% -0.16 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.12% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.98% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.60% -0.12 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.13% -0.07 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/6 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% -0.04% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.96% -0.14 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/5 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.21 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.29 0.77 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.77% +0.04 0.49 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.22 +0.21 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.22 +0.21 UMBS 6.0 101.54 +0.19 GNMA 5.5 100.40 +0.09 GNMA 6.0 101.39 +0.15 Pricing as of: 12/6 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.1462 -0.0251 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.093 -0.049 5 YR Treasury 4.030 -0.047 7 YR Treasury 4.081 -0.044 10 YR Treasury 4.146 -0.025 30 YR Treasury 4.332 -0.008 Pricing as of: 12/6 5:31PM EST Latest Video Payrolls increased 227,000 in November, more than expected; unemployment ra... Fed will cut rates in December meeting but they'll pause quicker than antic... Fed fund futures rally on November jobs report Government job postings have taken noticeable downturn, says Recruiter.com'... Around the Web CNBC Mark Cuban: This will 'be the No. 1 housing affordability issue' in the U.S.Florida especially will have 'huge problems' CNBC Heres where the jobs are for November 2024 in one chart CNBC Payrolls increased 227,000 in November, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.2% CNBC CFPB sues Comerica Bank for failing to administer federal benefits program Calculated Risk Blog Comments on November Employment Report Marketwatch Consumer sentiment rises in December, so do inflation concerns Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November; Another Year-over-year Sales Gain in November Calculated Risk Blog Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.3% Range Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.9% YoY CNBC OPEC+ oil output delay a 'reality check as group eyes demand, U.S. outlook, Saudi energy min says Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in November; Up 0.2% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors await key jobs report

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