Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree There's never a way to know with certainty that a Fed announcement will be uneventful, but if we had to assign relative probabilities, today's looked much more likely than normal to pass without a trace. In the immediate wake of the announcement, that didn't look like it was going to happen. Bonds sold quickly due to what seemed to be a notable verbiage change. Then in the press conference, Powell clarified the verbiage change and bonds unwound their initial reaction. MBS and Treasuries thus ended the day perfectly in line with pre-Fed levels, like it never even happened. Market Movement Recap10:17 AM Modestly stronger overnight and flat so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.523 11:20 AM Into negative territory now. 10yr up half a bp at 4.54 and MBS down 1 tick (.03). 02:43 PM Initially weaker after Fed announcement, but recovering a bit during press conference. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.568
Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree There's never a way to know with certainty that a Fed announcement will be uneventful, but if we had to assign relative probabilities, today's looked much more likel... (read more)
Heading into today's Fed announcement, we didn't expect to receive any significant surprise on the stance of monetary policy. Financial markets had long since ruled out the possibility of a rate cut and we knew Powell could only really acknowle... (read more)
“Did you ever notice that when you put the two words "The" and "IRS" together, it spells "Theirs"? The impact of taxes and tax cuts (potential or expiring) are a topic here in Austin at the MBA’s IMB conference. GSE “reform” in the form of coming out... (read more)
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