Mortgage Rate Rally Finds Its Limit For Now

It was a great run for mortgage rates over the last 2 weeks with a sharp decline last week followed by very respectable ground-holding in the present week. But things got less respectable today. Bonds (which underlie day to day rate momentum) began the day in only moderately weaker territory before tanking hard in the afternoon. Said tankage was the result of an appallingly weak 30yr Treasury auction. We discussed Treasury auction implications a bit yesterday, but the gist is that a bad Treasury auction is bad for rates. It's that simple and today's Treasury auction was very bad. There's nothing too dramatic underlying the bad showing. If anything, it's just confirmation that rates have managed to come a long way (lower) very quickly and that it's time for them to cool off and consolidate before the next move. Anything can happen on any given day, but the "next move" stands the best chance of getting some guidance after next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday morning. This is a key inflation report that has been responsible for some of the biggest moves we've seen in rates in the past 2 years. As for today, the average mortgage lender was only moderately higher in the morning, but most lenders made mid-day adjustments that left them sharply higher compared to yesterday afternoon.

November 9, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rate Rally Finds Its Limit For Now It was a great run for mortgage rates over the last 2 weeks with a sharp decline last week followed by very respectable ground-holding in the present week. But things got less respectable today. Bonds (which underlie day to day rate mome... (read more) MBS Commentary Sometimes 6bps of Weakness is Just 6bps of Weakness There's a tendency, among bond watching loan originators, to focus a bit too much on whatever is happening on the present day in the bond market. Higher rates today? "Oh no... It's bad. Why is it bad? Why can't we catch a break... (read more) Rob Chrisman Fedspeak, TPO, Servicing, CFO Oversight, Consumer-Facing Tools ; A Primer on 1099 vs. W-2 Originators: Want to add value for your potential current or previous clients who are veterans? Send them a link to Veteran’s Day discounts and free meals. LOs and brokers are good at staying in touch with potential clients and continue to prospect a... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.55% +0.14% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.55% +0.14 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.91% +0.09 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.89% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.87% +0.07 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.20% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.72% -0.08 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/9 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.91% +0.09% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.50% -0.26 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.22 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/9 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.61% -0.25 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.98% -0.16 0.88 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.58% -0.22 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/8 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.67 -0.59 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 98.67 -0.59 UMBS 6.5 100.36 -0.44 GNMA 6.0 99.23 -0.52 GNMA 6.5 100.50 -0.34 Pricing as of: 11/9 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.6360 +0.1440 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.031 +0.095 5 YR Treasury 4.647 +0.137 7 YR Treasury 4.684 +0.155 10 YR Treasury 4.636 +0.144 30 YR Treasury 4.779 +0.167 Pricing as of: 11/9 5:31PM EST Latest Video Jerome Powell: Inflation well above target, Fed has a long way to go It's a mistake to assume the Fed is completely done raising rates, says New... St. Louis Fed interim president: It's unwise to take rate hikes off the tab... The Fed is done raising rates, says Hightower Advisors' Stephanie Link Around the Web forexlive Powell: We are not confident that we've achieved sufficiently restrictive policy CNBC Powell says Fed is 'not confident' it has done enough to bring inflation down Marketwatch 30-year Treasury yield heads for biggest one-day jump since June 2022 after poor auction Eye on Housing Square Foot Prices More than Double Inflation in 2022 redfin 1 in 3 U.S. Homebuyers Are Paying All Cash, the Highest Share in Nearly a Decade Eye on Housing Rising Mortgage Rates Push Housing Affordability to Lowest Level in Index History Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November CNBC Average credit card balances top $6,000, a 10-year high, as delinquencies rise Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly New Listings UP 0.6% YoY; Active Inventory Down Only 0.2% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.0% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 217,000 CNBC 10-year Treasury yield rises as investors weigh economic outlook CNBC Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live to an IMF panel on monetary policy

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