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| Today’s TBUZ TV I'll be hosting a flash market meeting at 11am ET - You can join it by clicking here. Be sure to listen to today's TBUZ TV at the link below! “The biggest temptation is to settle for too little.” ~ Thomas Merton This Week at DTI Monday - 10am ET - Academy (Learn More) - 11am ET - Flash Meeting (Join Here) - 12pm ET - Genesis (Learn More) - 3pm ET - Project Zebra - 7pm ET - Futures First Tuesday - 10am ET - Academy (Learn More) - 10:45am ET - Connect the Dots (Learn More) - 3pm ET - Tuesday Power Plays (Learn More) Wednesday - 10am ET - Academy (Learn More) - 12pm ET - Flash TBA - 8pm ET - Midweek Market Update (Register) Thursday - 10:30am ET - Academy (Learn More) - 12pm ET - Flash TBA - 3pm ET - Flash TBA Friday - 12pm ET - Flash TBA - 3pm ET - Weekly Wrap-Up (Register) Market Review - Chuck Crow The Start of this Week The ES Futures open overnight trading this week at 5753.00. That is almost 20 points below where they closed last week, 5771.75. Last week’s low was 5673.00, and on a quarterly chart, our next meaningful number to challenge would be the high of the 2nd quarter of 2024, 5588.00. On the open Sunday night the market immediately dropped to 5710.50. The bulls have been beaten, bashed, and beaten again. Our major economic news this week is likely not something the bulls want to focus on. Inflationary data for both CPI and PPI will be released Wednesday and Thursday. In addition, this is the last week of the March 2025 contract as lead. They will move into a secondary at the end of this week, and expire at the end of the following week. The premium between the two contracts is roughly 55 points. That may seem a non sequitur, but if you do the math, and nothing changes, it might be important. Maybe keep this for next week’s reference. As far as trends go, if the market wants to push lower this week, it must first go down to challenge Friday’s low at 5673.00. Resistance would be the opposite side of the trend with Friday’s high being 5791.00, and last week’s high being 6000.50. Update on last week’s stocks: Marvel Technologies (MRVL) was predicated on a market recovery that never materialized. This stock provided an exercise in how not to go numb while sitting on the sidelines. There is really nothing more to add. Looking ahead: The past few looks at individual stocks have not materialized based on the parameters that we look for to trigger trades. This week we are going to take a close look at Dollar General (DG). They are reporting earnings on Thursday. The big news for this stock is likely to be tied into the CPI and PPI numbers. If inflation continues to be an issue then DG may be a nice counterbalance. DG stretched down to a low on March 4 at 70.01, but that low remains above the February low at 69.32. DG’s high last week was 82.62 which was set on Friday, and is above the February high at 79.88. DG’s low this year was set in January, so it seems to be moving in a different direction than the broader market, and since the broader market seems to be moving lower, this may be an interesting stock to keep an eye on. The fundamentals of DG look interesting. First, the PE Ratio (TTM) is 13.50. They pay a dividend of 2.88%. Among the stocks that we have looked at in the recent past this is the best dividend payer. The last Ex-Dividend Date was last listed as Jan 7, 2025, which should mean the next one will be around April 7. That time frame is still a month away, but there are some interesting things in the charts that are worth a look. The First quarter of 2025 is still a work in progress, though the stock has both traded down to 66.43, and traded up to 82.62. The low number is below the Fourth quarter low at 72.12, and 82.62 is still below the Fourth quarter high of 85.08. What caught my attention is that on a quarterly basis, the next number above 85.08 is 122.21. That is a gap of 37.13. My premise, therefore, is that if DG were to move above 85.08 then it could run to try and fill in that missing area. The stock could have a shortened version of this move, only making it up to the 100.00 level. Even then it could be a nice little move. What makes this particular stock even more interesting is that solid 2.88% dividend. Add that to the real possibility of the next ex dividend date being almost a month away, and it looks like DG could not only be a good trade above 85.08, it may also be a good investment for the longer run. If we are dealing with inflationary pressure for an extended period, then DG may benefit from cost cutting measures by the American consumer. Past recommendations: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) took a little spin by breaking a key support level from February 21 at 134.03. They dropped all the way to 124.44, but recovered a little on February 26, and started February 27, back above the 134.03 number at 135.00. That early push on February 27 had us stepping to the sidelines after a successful short move. The quick downtrend was actually broken on February 26 as the daily bar moved above the 130.20 high from February 25. A subsequent sell off on February 27 left me kicking myself on the sidelines, and I think it may be best to leave NVDA there for now. In Walmart (WMT), the February 20 high was 100.12. This was after a bad showing following earnings the day before. WMT pushed down to 92.12 last week, but may be trying to recover. The original expected resistance was 105.30, the high from February 14. Walmart should be booking to peek back above 100.12, and if it gets a little help from the broader market, then we could see some upward momentum. The chaotic state of the broader market may suggest the need for a little caution. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is now off the table. It moved back below support levels which initially started as resistance. SMCI was able to break above 38.50 and push past 48.00 and then 57.00, but could not rise above the third level of resistance at 67.00. It then got caught up in last week’s mess. This one is sidelined, after performing well. How I Target Weekly Income During This Red Hot Spring LEARN MORE HERE News and Probabilities for the Week I'll be watching the CPI report that comes out Wednesday morning and any news we see coming out of Washington DC. Probabilities are mixed. This is a trader's market. Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more! Telegram: https://dtitrader.com/telegram YouTube: https://dtitrader.com/youtube Important Note: No one from the DTI Trader team or Tom Busby will ever contact you directly on Telegram. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. |
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