Modest Refi Surge Was Fun While it Lasted

Heading into the first part of December, mortgage rates were at their lowest levels in a month and a half. Much of the improvement from the recent highs occurred in a single week (the last week of November). That made for an obvious and logical uptick in refinance applications the following week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) application survey. In the latest numbers reported this morning, the refinance index didn't change much after that, which is "good" at face value because it means refi activity remained at the modestly elevated levels reported last week. But things start looking less than good when we add context from the September mini-refi-surge. As has been and continues to be the case, none of the recent activity amounts to much when compared to the true refi booms of the past. Unfortunately, that line will have an even harder time moving up in the coming weeks. This afternoon's Fed announcement was not well received by the rate market. Mortgage rates are moving up quickly even though the Fed cut its policy rate. The average lender is already back up to the recent highs seen in early November. Movement in purchase applications has been less interesting and less eventful by comparison. Simply put, there hasn't been much movement for at least a year. Other highlights from today's data: Refi apps accounted for 46.7% of the total vs 46.8 last time FHA share of total apps increased to 17.6 from 16.5 VA share declined to 15.3 from 16.3 Rates rose to 6.75 from 6.67 (note: that refers to MBA's survey rate for last week. Average daily rates are back over 7% as of this afternoon)

December 18, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Modest Refi Surge Was Fun While it Lasted Heading into the first part of December, mortgage rates were at their lowest levels in a month and a half. Much of the improvement from the recent highs occurred in a single week (the last week of November). That made for an obvious and l... (read more) Housing News Highest Building Permits Since February Despite Slower Housing Starts The Census Bureau releases its report on New Residential Construction each month which offers 3 key metrics: building permits, housing starts, and housing completions. Of those, the first two are most closely watched. There is typically a soli... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Jump Abruptly Higher After The Fed's Rate Cut If anyone needed any further convincing that a Fed rate cut is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates, today is a great piece of evidence. Perhaps "great" is the wrong word. There was nothing great about the mortgage rate movement following... (read more) MBS Commentary Stronger Start After Initial Weakness Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as 5.5 coupons lost a majority of their early AM gains by 10:45am ET and then bounced back to nea... (read more) Rob Chrisman Price and Credit Breaks, Valuation, Verification, Marketing Tools; FHA and Reverse News “When a woman says, ‘What?’ it’s not because she didn’t hear you. It’s because she’s giving you a chance to change what you said.” Things are always a changin’. Now the press is filled with another potential government shutdown looming. (My money is ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.13% +0.21% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.13% +0.21 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.42% +0.22 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.42% +0.16 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.25% +0.10 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.98% +0.15 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.45% +0.17 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.42% +0.22% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.12 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/12 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.21 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.29 0.77 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.77% +0.04 0.49 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.64 -0.61 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.64 -0.61 UMBS 6.0 100.35 -0.49 GNMA 5.5 99.25 -0.39 GNMA 6.0 100.54 -0.23 Pricing as of: 12/18 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.5055 +0.1048 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.348 +0.091 5 YR Treasury 4.396 +0.131 7 YR Treasury 4.457 +0.126 10 YR Treasury 4.506 +0.105 30 YR Treasury 4.667 +0.076 Pricing as of: 12/18 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed Chair Powell calls Wednesday's rate cut a 'closer call' but the 'right ... Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks after Fed cuts interest rates by a quar... Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points Fed expected to follow through with 25 bps cut today, says former Atlanta F... Around the Web CNBC The Fed sees only two rate cuts in 2025, fewer than previously projected CNBC The Fed cut interest rates by another 25 basis pointsheres what will get cheaper CNBC U.S. auto sales next year expected to be best since 2019 CNBC The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here's what to expect CNBC Mortgage demand drops for the first time in 5 weeks, after interest rates rise Eye on Housing Property Taxes Revenue Surpasses $200 Billion CNBC Federal student loan forgiveness opportunities lost to those who refinance, CFPB warns Eye on Housing Single-Family Starts Posts Solid Gain While Multifamily Falters Calculated Risk Blog Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Steady but Signs of Future Optimism in 2025 CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as Fed rate decision time nears Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November Calculated Risk Blog AIA: Architecture Billings "Flat" in November; Multi-family Billings Turn Slightly Positive

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