| | | | Friday, July 9, 2021 | | Don't look now, but draft season is heating up. | | OK, for those of you who aren't quite as obsessed with Fantasy Football as we are, draft season is still a ways away. But for those of us in the industry, drafts are going on every day. The Scott Fish Bowl draft kicked off the other day, and you can follow along with Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, Dave Richard, and myself (along with about 1,500 of our closest friends in the massive tournament) via RotoGrinders' Scott Fish Bowl 11 app here. And you can learn more about the Scott Fish Bowl and all the money it raises for great causes from our YouTube stream featuring the great Scott Fish himself here. | | We also did a SuperFlex draft on Tuesday's stream, which you can watch and find the results for here. And, if you want to know why I went with a zero-RB build in a 14-team league this week, I wrote about my Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association experts league draft here. You should probably be taking part in mock drafts right now. Try to gather up some friends (or rivals) and get some practice reps in before the real fun starts, because the more experience you have with the player pool, the better you'll fare. | | In the rest of today's Fantasy Football Today newsletter, I'll be talking about some of the biggest risers in my rankings since I first put them together back in May after the NFL draft -- inspired by Dave's recent article on the stats that changed his running back rankings. Like the fact that Derrick Henry faced fewer than eight defenders in the box on just 51% of his snaps, while Julio Jones' Falcons saw fewer than eight in the box 83% of the time in 2020. That's one reason to move Henry up the rankings. | | Plus, I've got some really interesting questions from you, our readers and listeners, about breakout WR candidates, Jonathan Taylor's workload and more. As always, if you want your questions answered, hit us up at either [email protected] or [email protected]. | | And make sure you head over to CBS Fantasy, as we're rolling out our sleepers, breakouts and bust picks through the month of July: | | Jamey's Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts Heath's Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts Dave's Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts (coming next week!) Chris' Sleepers | Breakouts | Busts (coming the following week!) | | And now, here are my biggest rankings risers: | | Rankings Risers | | | | Quarterbacks | | Ryan Tannehill (QB9) - The addition of Julio Jones obviously explains much of this. Part of that is Tannehill goes from throwing to Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick to throwing to Jones, one of the most efficient players of all time. But part of it is I'm taking the addition of Jones as a signal that the Titans plan to pass more in 2021. They'll never be a pass-happy team, but if A.J. Brown and Jones are healthy and Darrynton Evans can emerge as a useful pass catcher out of the backfield, I think they'll introduce at least a few new elements into the passing game. Tannehill has been so efficient over the past two seasons, and Jones and Brown should help him keep that up. I'm happy to have him as my No. 1 QB now. Tyrod Taylor (QB23*) - That asterisk is there because we still don't know what is going on with Deshaun Watson's status. At this point, I think it's more likely than not that he'll be suspended for at least some of the season -- and I would be pretty surprised if it was less than six weeks. That's just one man's opinion, but when you consider the nature of the allegations against him and NFL precedent, it seems like a reasonable bet. And that's without even accounting for the possibility that Watson just holds out anyway. Taylor is just about the platonic ideal of a replacement level quarterback, which is why his last two starting jobs have given way to rookies within the first month of the season. Still, his rushing ability -- he averaged 35.8 yards per game with 14 touchdowns between 2015 and 2017 -- means he could be a Fantasy-relevant player if he gets the chance as Houston's starter. In a 2QB or SuperFlex league, I'm willing to snag Taylor very late to see if he could emerge as either a useful No. 2 QB or trade piece. | | Running backs | | Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB12) - I'm a bit ahead of the consensus on CEH -- he's RB16 in NFC ADP -- but I can't help but get excited about him. All those reasons we made him a borderline first-round pick this time last year are still there. This is still a great offense, he still has little real combination, and he should still be a factor in both the running and passing games. We'll see if that ultimately holds true -- especially if his Green Zone struggles last season persist -- but I'm someone who really values situation for running backs, and CEH still has a great one. Michael Carter (RB33) - So, if I value situation so much, why is Carter moving up? The Jets offense still figures to be one of the worst in the league in 2021, but I'll bet against it being historically awful, which means this is probably already a better situation than you think. Add in that Carter was getting the first reps among RBs in pass-catching drills during minicamp while getting plenty of work with the first team out of the backfield, and don't be surprised if he keeps moving up the board from here. James Robinson (RB34) - By all public indications, the Jaguars are going to run the ball a decent amount, and Robinson still looks like he's going to be the lead back to start the season. That may not stick all season if Travis Etienne outshines him, but it's worth remembering that the Jaguars wanted WR Kadarius Toney in the draft before he was taken by the Giants, which indicates they weren't necessarily looking for a Robinson replacement as much as an all-around playmaker. Robinson could still be in line for 200-plus carries and a decent pass-catching role, and I have to admit I overreacted to the drafting of Etienne at first. | | Wide receivers | | A.J. Brown (WR7) - It might be somewhat counterintuitive to move Brown up now that he has more competition for targets, but I don't look at it that way. Brown is still going to earn a massive target share for the Titans, with Jones' targets primarily coming from the ancillary pieces on the offense. This figures to be one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the league, and we'll see a ton of two-WR sets from them. Brown moved up because, while I don't expect much of a dip in target share, he figures to benefit from however much more the Titans throw it, as well as from an efficiency standpoint next to Jones. Jerry Jeudy (WR36) - I keep having to fight the urge to move Jeudy up even more. It's hard to make the math work out for that unless you think he's going to surpass Courtland Sutton as the No. 1 WR … and I kind of think he might. Jeudy is one of the best WR talents in the NFL, and he probably profiles better as a true alpha target hog than Sutton anyway. If the Broncos QB play is better in 2021 -- and it figures to be by default with the addition of Teddy Bridgewater as competition for Drew Lock -- they could conceivably have two top-24 WRs. And Jeudy has top-12 upside. Mike Williams (WR44) - Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is installing a very similar passing attack to what the Saints have used under Sean Payton, and he told reporters he expects Williams to play the "X" role -- the same one Michael Thomas has played with the Saints. "As much as this offense will resemble New Orleans, he plays the 'X' and the ball has always kind of found the 'X' receiver in this offense," Lombardi told The Athletic. It's not an obvious one-to-one analogy because Williams is such a different type of receiver than Thomas -- in fact, Keenan Allen fits the mold much more naturally -- but Williams would certainly benefit from a bit more attention in the offense, if nothing else. | | Tight ends | | Dallas Goedert (TE6) - At some point, something has to happen with Zach Ertz, and I'm taking the probability of Ertz leaving the Eagles more seriously than I was earlier. It seems inevitable, and Goedert could be the leading receiver for Jalen Hurts if that happens. This has been a very good offense for tight ends, and while I'm not necessarily expecting Goedert to emerge as an elite option like Ertz was for so long, the upside is there. Regardless, he should be one of the few tight ends you won't have to worry about this season. Irv Smith (TE11) - Smith is more in the streaming range, but I have started to re-evaluate his value this offseason. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are going to dominate targets in this offense, but I think there's a decent chance we see another step back from the 31-year-old Thielen, and Smith could certainly stand to benefit from that, especially near the goal line. If I'm waiting at tight end, he's a fine option to target and hope he emerges as more than just a touchdown-or-bust guy. If he doesn't, he could still be one of the better ones of that tier. | | Mailbag | | Here are some of the most interesting questions we've gotten from our listeners in recent days. If you want your email read on FFT or answered in this newsletter, send them over to either [email protected] or [email protected]. We'll be answering a lot of questions between now and Week 1: | | Kyle: With a recent report coming out about Jonathan Taylor's workload to be about 60 percent of the team's carries. Should we consider drafting Cam Akers, Joe Mixon and Najee Harris over him with them getting potential 80 percent of carries? | | This kind of thing happens every few weeks, and there's always a bit of consternation, because 60% sure sounds like an awfully low number. But some context is necessary here. In 2018, Christian McCaffrey had 287 carries, while no other player on the Panthers had more than 32. By any definition of the word, he dominated carries; that was 74.4% of the team's total. In 2020, Dalvin Cook's 312 carries represented 66.7% of the team's totals. Ezekiel Elliott's 301 in 2019 were 67.0%. | | I've got Taylor projected for 64% of the Colts' carries, and even if I dropped him down to 60%, it wouldn't change his outlook that much. This team is going to run the ball a ton, and Taylor is going to get the majority of them. The real question is how much Taylor is involved in the passing game. If he can get to 40 receptions, that top-five upside is obvious. I would still take him over Akers and Harris, though not Mixon. | | Rob: In a recent podcast, one of you mentioned the Dolphins may spread the ball around. This got me thinking of a stat I once heard (or never heard and completely made up) that young QBs tend to favor certain receivers rather than spread it around. Could you use the power of statistics to dive into this? Do 1st, 2nd year QBs spread the ball around less than tenured QBs on average? | | As soon as I saw this question, I knew I had seen someone do this research before. So, big tip of the cap to Tyler Loechner at ProFootballFocus.com, who dug into this in 2017. The data is a few years old, but I have to imagine things haven't changed much -- he was referring to it as "a narrative seemingly as old as fantasy football itself." | | What Loechner found is that rookie QBs throw to running backs 18.9% of the time, tight ends 20.7% of the time, and wide receivers 60.4% of the time; veteran QBs are at 18.8%, 20.8%, and 60.3%, respectively. Things are a little bit different when it comes to yardage from rookie QBs -- tight ends do account for slightly more of a rookie QB's yards than for veterans, but it's only 0.7% more. | | I do think the Dolphins will spread the ball around a decent amount, but that's less to do with Tua Tagovailoa and more to do with the fact that they have four players in Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki who can all challenge the defense down the field. I expect this to be a pretty aggressive offense in that regard, and I expect they'll spread the ball around quite a bit for the same reason I expect Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to do so. That's a reason to like Tagovailoa as a sleeper. | | Andrew: Who is this year's round 4/5 possible breakout WR? In 2019 you nailed Chris Godwin's breakout and in 2020 you crushed Calvin Ridley too. Who is this year's Godwin and Ridley? In both Godwin and Ridley's breakout cases, they were younger receivers with immense talent going into their second or third seasons. What WR in Rounds 4-6 has that top-14 upside? | | Some of my suggestions: | | Robert Woods / Cooper Kupp Chris Godwin, again D.J. Moore (I really want it to be DJ Moore) One of the rookies: Ja'Marr Chase/DeVonta Smith | | I like a bunch of your suggestions. I do expect Woods and Kupp to outperform their draft positions and possibly put up their best seasons ever with Matthew Stafford replacing Jared Goff. I think Moore is about as talented as anyone at the position, and if Sam Darnold takes a (significant, unlikely) leap forward, I could see Moore having a Stefon Diggs-esque breakout. | | Here are a few others: | | CeeDee Lamb - An obvious choice, but a good one. He's incredibly talented and plays in a very, very high volume passing offense. Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel - I like Samuel a bit more than Aiyuk -- his role as an extension of the running game with screens and pop passes makes him less at risk to lose targets to George Kittle, I would guess -- but both are immensely talented playmakers with the ball in their hands. And if Trey Lance is as good as the 49ers clearly believe, this whole offense could be ready to explode. Chase Claypool - I'm skeptical of this one because I'm skeptical that Ben Roethlisberger can still be the type of aggressive QB Claypool probably needs to take a big leap, but it's certainly possible. Jerry Jeudy - As I said earlier, I think Jeudy has top-12 upside. If the Broncos actually did manage to pull off that long-shot Aaron Rodgers trade, Jeudy might jump into the top-24 in my rankings. Curtis Samuel - Samuel had 1,051 total yards in just 15 games last season, which is surprising to see even though I know it happened. He wasn't a great Fantasy option because he only scored five touchdowns, but he could easily top that this season. Hopefully Washington is smart enough to use him in the running game the way the Panthers did, because it really makes him an even more valuable player. | | Ricco: I have pick No. 1 so of course I'm taking McCaffery. For 24/25, would you go: Darren Waller/Justin Jefferson, Jefferson/Calvin Ridley or Waller/J.K. Dobbins? I feel like Dobbins is my last chance before RB dries up, but securing a TE/WR gives me great roster balance and a top TE, and WR/WR gives me possibly two top-five WRS... but in both those scenarios I feel like I'm chasing RB. I know I should be flexible, but what's a good "strategy" after picking No. 1 because I've never done it and it's a long wait until my next picks. | | I wrote about my early-round road map in a recent FFT Newsletter, so I would suggest you check that out first! I don't mind chasing running backs at all -- I did it in a 14-team league I drafted just this week. But it's harder to justify in non-PPR, where I'm actually willing to go RB-RB-RB if the right options are there. I like Dobbins more in non-PPR than PPR, but I'm not sure he would be the best option there -- I like Austin Ekeler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, David Montgomery, and Chris Carson more, if any of them are there. | | Starting out with McCaffrey and Ekeler would be pretty incredible, and while I do like ending up with one of the elite TEs, I do think it's less of a priority in PPR, where the gap between the elites and the touchdown-or-bust guys is ever-so small. If it were me, I would aim for McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Ridley, who led the league in air yards last season and should be in a similar spot this season. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Be the Commish or Join a League | ✔Scores & Highlights
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